The backdrop of supply disruptions and the AI data centre buildout supporting metals prices set the scene for discussion during the recently concluded LME Metals Week. This Update provides our thoughts on the key themes discussed and the outlook for …
28th October 2026
The latest data point to an abrupt drop in activity in Latin America, only partly offset by strength in Mexico and Peru. While we don’t think this weakness will last, the carryover from a weak Q3 as well as fiscal tightening reinforce our view that …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in September as the drag from summer typhoons eased. But growth remains weak by recent standards and increasingly reliant on external demand. Stronger fiscal support should boost activity over the …
Bank embarks on a cautious hiking cycle The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise the policy rate shows the balance of risks has now tipped towards the threat of energy-driven inflation over the downside risks from trade tensions. The Bank pushed back …
For our more detail analysis, see here . Slightly tighter-than-expected Budget landing well in the markets The Budget revealed only a small slippage in the plans to reduce the deficit and stabilise the debt ratio. Further slippage next year or more tax …
With the latest climb in energy prices all-but guaranteeing that the Bank of England will raise interest rates on Thursday 5th Novembe r, the bigger issues are how far will interest rates rise and how long will they stay high. Our UK economy and …
Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 26) …
The results so far from Israel’s election point to a range of possibilities for the next government although, irrespective of who is in power, it looks like the coalition will be fragile. We don’t think that the results materially impact Israel’s security …
The RBI’s FX reserves look plentiful but the headline figure overstates the central bank’s firepower, owing to a swollen forward book and sizeable holdings of gold. A renewed, sustained bout of rupee weakness could therefore still force the RBI to raise …
Underlying inflation remains unacceptably high for the RBA Bank will likely need to see slower growth and a weaker labour market We now think conditions for a rate cut will be in place only in Q4 2027 With inflationary pressures unrelenting, the RBA …
Thailand on hold again, but cuts likely in 2027 The Bank of Thailand left rates on hold at 1.00% today, as it has done since a 25bp cut in February. With growth struggling and inflation subdued, we expect the policy rate to stay low, with the BoT likely …
The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold today was finely balanced and the Committee signalled that further tightening remained likely. That said, the Bank’s cautious approach supports our view that it won’t hike rates quite as aggressively as markets …
Tightening delayed, not cancelled While the RBNZ surprised with a hold at its meeting today, it continued to signal that further tightening was in the pipeline. The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% today …
Sticky price pressures put November hike in play With underlying price pressures gaining traction, it looks increasingly likely that the RBA will put its foot on the brakes sooner rather than later. The 1.3% q/q rise in consumer prices last quarter was a …
Early indications point to a tightening in the apartment market now that the post-pandemic supply boom has run its course. We expect asking rent growth to recover steadily, reaching 3% p.a. in 2027-28. The strong multifamily supply pipeline generated by …
27th October 2026
President Lula’s surprise victory in Sunday’s runoff election has triggered an unwinding of earlier market optimism in Brazil but the rout is unlikely to turn into a crisis. While Lula’s populist policies will probably remain a headwind to Brazilian …
Our Africa team hosted an online session, on Thursday 5th November , where they digested the preliminary results from South Africa's local elections and what they mean for the country's political and policy outlook. The team also answered client questions …
South Africa’s municipal elections next week are set to deliver another setback for the African National Congress (ANC), with the Democratic Alliance (DA) likely to make gains. We think fears about the Government of National Unity’s (GNU) stability are …
Quarterly total returns of 1.4% were again driven almost entirely by the income component, as capital values nudged only slightly higher in Q3. There are signs of growing sector differentiation though, with retail returns accelerating and residential …
Prices can’t defy gravity for much longer Although house prices posted another healthy rise in August, momentum will quickly fade as the backward-looking price indices begin to capture the recent collapse in housing demand in response to surging mortgage …
The ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) showed credit standards tightening and demand weakening across most loan categories. This supports our view that GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q3, while banks’ expectations pose a downside risk to our Q4 growth …
Malaysia’s brain drain is a longstanding challenge to its ambition to become a high-income economy. A large diaspora, much of it concentrated in Singapore, includes a significant number of skilled workers. Their departure deprives domestic firms of …
The sell-off in French bonds is a warning for governments elsewhere, but we doubt it is the start of a broad fiscal crisis. Few advanced economies have comparably poor fiscal arithmetic, and those that do have greater political consensus or stronger lines …
The US naval blockade that has now been in place for more than 100 days is imposing severe pain on Iran’s economy, with the rial tumbling and inflation at close to 90% y/y. But the extent to which this affects Iran’s negotiating position depends on which …
Korea recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q3, once again supported by robust export growth. Investment also picked up, but private consumption remained weak. We expect growth to remain lopsided over the coming quarters. Figures published today …
Construction costs are likely to rise by 5% or more due to the Iran war, far less than the 17% increase brought about by the Ukraine war. Nevertheless, that will impact on an already weak development outlook for office and retail. But thanks to a strong …
26th October 2026
Despite higher bond yields, strong equity price gains are keeping overall financial conditions supportive of economic activity. The equity market correction we expect next year should prevent the Fed from hiking as far as market pricing implies. But if …
India’s oil imports from the Middle East have rebounded in the past couple of months as supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have gradually recovered and the discount on Russian oil has largely disappeared. But refiners’ plans to trim purchases under …
GDP growth looks to have lost some momentum in the third quarter, and headwinds from new tariffs and ongoing CUSMA uncertainty will weigh on activity over the next few quarters. While most measures of core inflation remain consistent with the 2% target, …
Rising interest rates and weak growth have made debt dynamics more challenging everywhere. What makes France stand out are the size of the fiscal adjustment needed to stabilise the debt ratio and the strength of public and political resistance to that …
The latest fall in the Egyptian pound may delay interest rate cuts and raising the cost for the government of servicing its FX debts. But these challenges should be manageable. And the bigger picture is that a more flexible exchange rate will help the …
A hectic week for politics, central banks and corporate earnings reports may well be dominated by continued jitters around the sustainability of the AI equity boom. Over the past couple of weeks, they have outweighed the renewed rise in energy prices in …
Rates hiked by 50bps, further tightening to come Pakistan’s central bank raised interest rates by 50bps today to 12.00%, and with inflation well above target, we think the SBP’s tightening cycle has further to run. Today’s move came as little surprise – …
We expect the spillovers to the Gilt market from a further worsening in France’s fiscal problems to be limited. If anything, the balance of risks points to further French fiscal stress putting downward pressure on Gilt yields by prompting a …
Lula’s surprise win in Brazil’s presidential election will put the country’s fiscal risks, growth prospects and foreign policy into the spotlight. On 26th October our economists hosted an online briefing where they discussed the implications of the …
German economy growing at start of Q4 The small increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in October supports our view that, after stalling in Q3, the economy will return to growth in Q4. That said, the discrepancy between the weak hard data …
Korea’s trend growth has slowed over the past few decades, reflecting weaker productivity and slower workforce growth. But we think this slowdown has come to an end, with rising female labour force participation and the adoption of AI (globally and across …
Lula’s surprise win in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election will dash hopes for reforms that would improve the public finances and strengthen growth prospects. A sharp fall in the real and equities and a rise in bond yields, more than …
It could be argued that the upcoming midterm elections hold an unusual degree of significance for Canada, given the hostility shown by President Trump over the past two years. With the Democrats overwhelmingly expected to regain at least one chamber (see …
23rd October 2026
Financial markets under strain… Concerns about tech companies’ spending plans knocked more than 1% off the S&P on Thursday, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ was down more than 2.5%, marking its largest single-day decline since June. The flip side of this …
MTBPS prompts positive market reaction South Africa’s markets have reacted positively to this week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). Its message of continued fiscal discipline and increased infrastructure spending reinforces our view that …
Most firms in the S&P 500 have so far managed to shrug off the falls in tech stocks over recent days, thanks in large part to a boost from falling Treasury yields. But we expect tech stocks, non-tech stocks, and Treasury yields to tumble if AI concerns …
French crisis may get worse before it gets better The recent social unrest in France has added another element to the country’s fiscal and political crises and the release of the flash PMI surveys for October points to a mounting economic toll. (Note …
Following a further increase this week, the price of Brent crude has now risen by ~20% since the start of September to ~$116pb, despite oil export volumes from the Middle East reportedly increasing to pre-war levels in recent weeks. Many commentators …
Argentina’s election fears hit markets Argentina’s country risk premium has continued its surge this week, with CDS premia up another 65bp. This takes the total rise since the trough in July to 350bp. In part, that’s because of the higher US Treasury …
Broad-based gain only slightly more than a rebound The broad-based rise in retail sales in August largely reflects a rebound from July rather than a genuine strengthening in consumer demand, though there were still signs in the data that households are …
Next Wednesday’s Budget was already shaping up to be a cautious one. But stronger UK inflation and labour market data, which have cemented expectations of a rise in Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.00% in November (see here and here ), and the sell-off in French …
Risks to our forecast are now towards tighter policy The minutes of the RBI’s October MPC meeting – in which the repo rate was hiked by 25bps to 5.50% – give a fairly strong indication that the committee will follow up with further tightening over the …
With French government bonds under pressure, protests gripping the country and the government struggling to pass a budget, we held a briefing, on Tuesday 27th October , where our economists assessed what happens next. We addressed five key questions: How …
Next week could be a pivotal one for the global economy, with interest-rate decisions from the Fed and ECB alongside a challenging UK Budget. In this episode of The Weekly Briefing , Chief UK Economist Paul Dales is joined by Chief Global Economist …
