Downside inflation surprise suggests deeper cuts are coming The sharp drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 18.0% y/y last month is likely to prompt the Central Bank of Nigeria to continue cutting interest rates, and by more than most expect, over …
15th October 2025
Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in advanced economies over the past few years, reducing the level of headline CPI by around 0.3-0.5% on average. Tariffs are likely to reverse this trend in the US. But elsewhere, policymakers will …
A tentative manufacturing recovery hasn’t completely stalled The August manufacturing and wholesale sales data were not as bad as feared, and suggest that despite the 1.0% m/m fall, the tentative manufacturing recovery that we’ve seen since June hasn’t …
While talk of US retaliation against China’s new export controls has mostly focused on tariffs and other barriers to goods trade, investment restrictions are another weapon in Washington’s arsenal. If tensions persist, the Trump administration could …
The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP growth is likely to come in weaker than most anticipate …
The South African activity data for August showed that the retail sector is struggling, but it looks like the economy will post reasonable growth in the third quarter on the back of rising output in the manufacturing sector. And we think the tailwinds …
In a period of slow economic growth but stabilising inflation and earnings growth, we expect the residential sector to see the strongest rental growth globally, with industrial close behind thanks to support from the structural driver of online retail …
While market pricing already looks consistent with our view that r* will rise to around 2% in the US over the coming decade, a deeper look suggests that there is still room for investors’ rate expectations to rise. We recently reiterated our view that the …
Ahead of the phase-in of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from the start of 2026, and the associated phase-out of free carbon permits for EU producers, this Focus assesses the implications for economic growth, inflation and monetary …
The looming introduction of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the start of 2026 will finally extend the “polluter pays” principle to emissions imported into the bloc. This report – the first of our Economic Impact of CBAM series – …
Economic Impact of CBAM …
14th October 2025
Our proprietary CBAM Exposure Index provides an easy-to-interpret way to compare the relative impact of CBAM across economies and identify where the most acute risks lie. Read related research on our Key Issues page. This dashboard was last updated on …
Credit growth slowdown continues Bank loan growth continued to weaken in September, with little sign of any boost from the consumer loan subsidy scheme. And growth in government bond issuance slowed for a second month, driving a further slowdown in broad …
Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto will mark a year in office on Monday (20 th October). After an encouraging start, a series of protests in recent months have pushed his administration in the direction of more populist and interventionist …
Industrial malaise continues The decline in industrial production in August supports our view that the economy as a whole barely grew in Q3, for a second successive quarter. Prospects for industry remain poor for the foreseeable future. The 1.2% m/m …
The war in Gaza has fundamentally re-shaped geopolitics in the Middle East. Iran and Russia (and, indirectly, China) are nursing blows to their power in the region, which has created space for the US to try to pull the likes of Saudi Arabia back into its …
Soft inflation to persist into 2026 Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 2.3% y/y in August to 2.2% y/y in September, which remains weak by EM standards and, as we outlined in a Focus, we think that inflation will ease further as we head …
We don’t think the political drama in Japan will be a drag on the country’s bond and stock markets and may, in the near term, even give them a boost. So far, markets have taken the country’s renewed political uncertainty – specifically, the breaking-up of …
Deflation likely to linger despite pledges to curb overcapacity Core CPI inflation edged up to a multi-year high last month and PPI deflation eased. But this largely reflects temporary factors and base effects, rather than the impact of the …
The sharp fall in interest rate expectations and long-term government bond yields over recent days in response to renewed US-China tensions has brough the 10-year Treasury yield to around its lowest level since early April. Unless the trade war returns in …
While huge investment in AI has been driving US GDP growth this year, Europe has seen a negligible boost to investment. And it seems unlikely that AI investment in Europe will increase by much in the coming years, let alone match US levels. Admittedly, …
A closer inspection suggests that the scope of China’s new controls on rare earths is narrower than many, including us, had initially feared. But they still give officials plenty of leverage over global supply chains. And they come alongside new controls …
EM inflation has continued to fall and is now close to the rates recorded in the late 2010s, which will be welcomed by policymakers. But there are a few important outliers. Inflation looks set to remain high by past standards in Central and Eastern …
Note: We'll be discussing the outcome of Argentina's mid-term elections in an online briefing on 27 th October – register here . Despite denials from policymakers, we think that Argentina’s exchange rate regime in its current form is unsustainable and …
The notable rise in the share of non-performing loans to commercial real estate in Germany over the past couple of years stands out within the EU. We expect further increases to come in Germany, but signs that the lending environment is improving and …
Concerns over possible tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November, higher mortgage rates and the weak jobs market have left the housing market paralysed. We doubt this is the start of a sharp slowdown and instead we expect the housing market to muddle …
India is closing in on a decade of inflation targeting and the current framework is up for review. The success of the Reserve Bank in keeping inflation lower and less volatile since the introduction of inflation targeting suggests there is little need to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Labour market loosening, but wage growth still easing only fairly gradually The modest further falls in both payroll employment and job vacancies in September suggest that …
Singapore’s central bank kept policy settings unchanged today and its accompanying statement was a touch hawkish. With the economy set to slow rather than slump, inflation likely to rise gradually, and the bank appearing to signal that the bar for further …
RBA sees risks as two-sided Although the RBA sounded less confident about the policy space it has to lower rates, we still expect it to deliver two more 25bp cuts in the months ahead. The minutes of the RBA’s September meeting confirmed that the …
With China’s rare earth export controls back in the spotlight, this Update answers seven key questions on the in-vogue elements and the economic consequences of disruption to their supply. 1) What are rare earths? The term “rare earths” refers to a group …
13th October 2025
Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election is just a few weeks away and, while incumbent President Ouattara looks set to retain office, democratic backsliding raises the risk that unrest breaks out around the vote. So long as unrest is avoided, growth of above …
A surge in olive oil exports and a rebound in tourist arrivals, alongside Gulf and EU financial support, have helped to stave off a balance of payments crisis in Tunisia. But with the dinar increasingly overvalued and FX reserves being depleted to …
Inflation to remain contained, allowing RBI to loosen policy India’s headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in September and with the outlook generally benign and the economy set to cool, we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle in …
What began as a political crisis risks descending into farce. Barely a week after stepping down, Sébastien Lecornu has been reappointed as France’s prime minister, the fourth in a year. The episode underscores a clear lesson: pushing meaningful deficit …
Moves in the US dollar and global equities since last week give an indication of how renewed US-China tensions, should they persist, would affect key financial markets. At the time of writing, the mood in markets was improving , following conciliatory …
Weakest net lending to CRE since April Net lending by banks to commercial real estate reached $4.1bn in September, its weakest monthly outturn since April. That was below the monthly average of $4.7bn for the year-to-date and less than half the average of …
Renewed US-China tensions cloud export outlook Exports held up last month, with headline y/y growth rising to a six-month high and shipments also picking up on a seasonally adjusted basis. While this resilience underscores the ability of Chinese …
Real wages haven’t fallen as sharply as the official data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare would suggest. Nonetheless, it is striking that workers are not benefitting much from the most pronounced labour shortages since the early …
President Trump has threatened to hit back hard if China doesn’t back away from the trade restrictions it announced last week. This latest dispute could still blow over if cool heads prevail – a planned meeting between Trump and Xi at the APEC summit …
Even after tumbling today amid US-China trade tensions, the S&P 500 remains close to its all-time high. That’s despite investors seemingly believing that the risks around US inflation are increasingly skewed to the upside and that a US recession is more …
10th October 2025
While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic data releases. Indeed, a key driver of the dollar’s …
Trade negotiations unlikely to bear much fruit Prime Minister Mark Carney’s second trip to Washington was disappointing, yielding little in the way of relief on sector-specific tariffs or a commitment to the future of CUSMA. Commerce Secretary Howard …
How reliant is the US economy on the AI investment boom? It’s a question Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing keeps getting in client meetings. On this episode of The Weekly Briefing, he tells David Wilder why there’s more to the story than hype around a …
There are nascent signs that the stagnant housing market is beginning to warm up following the recent fall in mortgage rates. Pending home sales rose by 4.0% m/m in August, new home sales were also strong – though the size of the gain is questionable – …
Angola & Kenya Eurobonds short term fiscal fix Recent Eurobond issuances by Kenya and Angola may stem sovereign debt pressures for now, but they will still need to implement fiscal consolidation otherwise default fears will not go away. Buoyed by a …
We estimate that the EU’s pandemic recovery scheme, Next Generation EU (NGEU), will have boosted GDP in countries such as Greece and Italy by around 1.5% over its six-year lifetime. It therefore explains only part of the recent performance of some of …
Israel and Hamas approve ceasefire deal The Israeli government today approved the first phase of a US brokered plan to end the war in Gaza. As part of the agreement with Hamas, a ceasefire is now in place and Israel has withdrawn its troops to agreed-upon …
Households concerned about future Consumer sentiment edged down to a five-month low of 55.0 in October, from 55.1, as a cocktail of labour market weakness, above-target inflation and, potentially, the ongoing government shutdown weighed on household …
