Rise in trade surplus not as good as it looks The further widening of the goods trade surplus to a more than four-year high in September was not quite as positive as it looks, as it was almost entirely due to a price-driven rise in energy exports. By …
4th November 2026
Rates on hold, but a rise in inflation will prompt hikes in 2027 The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave the policy rate at 3.75% is likely to be followed by large upwards revisions to inflation projections in the post-meeting statement due …
Spain’s new rent controls will do little to ease the country’s worsening housing shortage. While the government has pledged nearly €900mn in support for homebuilding and social housing, that will barely dent the estimated 750,000 shortfall in housing …
Trade deficit remains near record levels The negligible narrowing in the trade deficit in September, as export growth barely outpaced import growth, is broadly consistent with the BEA’s assumptions in its advance estimate of Q3 GDP, suggesting the 3.4% …
Indonesia has a relatively solid external position, with the current account deficit still small and foreign exchange reserves comfortably covering the country’s short-term external financing needs. But, if the Prabowo government intensifies its push for …
Euro-zone HICP (October 2026) Indirect effects of higher energy costs still very small October’s euro-zone HICP data confirm that the indirect effects of higher energy costs on food and core inflation remain very small. While these effects will probably …
The Democrat sweep in the midterms could push President Trump to assert his authority in foreign policy, where the election makes little difference to his powers and he may seek to leave his mark. Identifying where Trump might act is inevitably …
The magnitude of the gains for the Democrats in the midterms does not change too much for the near-term policy outlook, given the party still lacks a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and President Trump has veto power to block legislation. But the …
Consumption growth will start to slow soon Household spending volumes rose at the same pace in Q3 as in the previous quarter, which suggests that consumption has yet to slow in response to weaker real income growth. The 0.6% m/m rise in the ABS’ Monthly …
Weak labour market will limit further RBNZ tightening We doubt that the prolonged weakness in New Zealand’s labour market will prevent the RBNZ from hiking rates further at its December meeting but it does mean that the Bank will ultimately tighten policy …
3rd November 2026
The direct economic effects of the US’s decision to remove South Africa from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) are likely to be limited. South Africa’s growth prospects hinge to a much greater degree on commodity prices and domestic reform …
With a double-digit fall in oil prices failing to lift the IT sector and more firms being caught up in the AI bust, there is growing evidence that this downturn in AI stocks may prove more durable than past ones. Oil prices have tumbled over the past day …
The fortunes of some of the best- and worst-performing metro labor markets of recent years are starting to turn. San Francisco is resurgent, Miami is faltering and D.C. is hemorrhaging office jobs, while a growing divergence in jobs growth means metro …
Reports that some Lula allies are engaging with a proposal for sharp Selic rate cuts to improve Brazil’s public debt dynamics point to renewed interest in financial repression. While we doubt the policy will see the light of day, the discussion implies …
The latest activity data for the Gulf underline the sluggish nature of the economic recovery underway. And while diplomatic efforts provide hope for an end to the Iran war, there remains a significant threat of a return to severe hostilities that puts the …
Korea’s car industry has weathered competition from China relatively well so far, but this resilience may not last as global demand shifts towards electric vehicles (EVs). This poses a growing risk to one of Korea’s most important export industries, with …
Central banks will remain a steady source of gold demand and put upward pressure on prices over the coming years. However, we think that central bank buying will be outweighed by other factors, which informs our non-consensus view that the price of gold …
Strong growth but clouds on the horizon amid market sell off Hong Kong's economy expanded by 5.2% y/y in Q3, up from 4.2% in Q2 and well above market expectations. (See Chart 1.) In seasonally adjusted q/q terms, growth accelerated to a brisk 1.9%, …
Inflation likely to remain within the SNB’s target range The larger-than-expected rise in Swiss inflation in October was primarily due to a rise in energy inflation. Underlying price pressures remain weak so we are confident in our view that the SNB will …
The RBA lifted its policy rate to an 18-year high today but noted that monetary conditions are now restrictive. We expect the Bank’s next move to be a rate cut, but not until the second half of next year . The Bank’s decision to lift its cash rate by …
RBA’s next move will be a rate cut The RBA lifted its policy rate to an 18-year high today, but noted that monetary conditions are now restrictive. Accordingly, we expect the Bank’s next move to be a rate cut. The Bank’s decision to lift its cash rate by …
The outlook for retail property is firmer than headline consumption data suggest. Households are cutting back more on leisure services than on goods, so retail sales should keep outpacing overall consumption growth. That should limit the rise in retail …
2nd November 2026
The manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that East Asian economies may have lost momentum, but there were more positive stories elsewhere in the EM world. The drop back in the output price component of the PMI, despite high oil prices last month, …
France's crisis …
With energy prices soaring, mortgage rates rising and employment flatlining, is now the time to bet against the UK consumer? And if households do baulk, which consumer sectors will be hit the hardest and the least? In this special 20-minute online …
Industry gaining momentum The rise in the ISM manufacturing survey in October suggests that activity in the sector gained some momentum at the start of the fourth quarter, thanks in part to the ongoing AI buildout. The drop back in the prices paid index …
Our Interactive Markets Chart Pack gives you a comprehensive and timely view of the latest developments in financial markets, and how we expect them to perform in 2026 and beyond. The Chart Pack can be downloaded in PDF form using the Download button on …
The euro-zone’s unemployment rate is close to a record low, but it has risen slightly and the latest surveys point to the labour market getting looser. This is a key reason why we think the risk of second-round effects from the energy shock remains low. …
We continue to think that less-hawkish-than-expected monetary policy and the bursting AI bubble will give bonds a further boost over time. Central banks relaxed, AI stocks spooked The good times continued to roll for the bond markets last week, with …
There are some early signs that tighter immigration rules are starting to reduce net migration and there’s a risk that the government will curb migrant inflows further over the coming years. With productivity growth still very weak, that could push …
Activity loses steam again This report was first published on Monday 2nd November, covering the official PMIs and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the RatingDog services and composite PMIs on Wednesday 4th November. The PMIs suggest …
Australia’s house prices have never fallen as rapidly as they have in the current downturn and we now expect them to eventually fall by more than 10% for the first time in the country’s modern history. Cotality once again revised down their estimates for …
Fed content to “take stock” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh framed October’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75–4.00% as an opportunity to “take stock of where we are” and “evaluate what we’re seeing out of the window” ahead of an “information-rich” …
30th October 2026
The PBOC’s shift to an overnight policy rate target will give the central bank better control over short-term funding costs and marks another step towards a more conventional operating framework. But the change should not be read as monetary easing. With …
Today’s ‘tech-led’ rout in the S&P 500 follows recent results from four of the US hyperscalers that were also mostly poorly received. The sombre mood seems largely to reflect investors’ growing anxiety about the huge sums being poured into AI. Admittedly, …
GDP data set up shaky end to the year We were in the narrow majority to correctly forecast a 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Canada this week. The Bank primarily hung the decision on its new inflation forecasts , which show the headline rate ending the …
Most emerging markets have weathered higher energy prices and bond yields well, but risks are building in a handful of economies. Which countries are becoming more vulnerable, and where should investors be most alert to currency, banking and sovereign …
National inflation data published today revealed that headline inflation rose in October in France and Italy but fell in Spain and Germany. (See Chart 1.) Based on the data already available, we think aggregate euro-zone inflation probably rose from 3.8 …
Most economies in Asia are on course to record solid growth over the next few quarters, as strong demand for AI-related products helps offset the drag from high energy prices. Many central banks have raised interest rates in response to the energy shock, …
Nigeria borrowing plan expose fiscal vulnerabilities Elevated oil prices have boosted Nigeria’s government revenues, but ambitious borrowing plans suggest that the government intends to spend this windfall and more, leaving the public finances vulnerable …
The potential for a divided government from January has raised question marks over President Trump’s ability to continue to carry out his bold policy agenda. Our North America team held a special 20 minute online briefing discussing the implications of …
Lula wins, markets rattled The shock victory for Lula in Brazil’s presidential election led to dramatic market moves on Monday. (See our initial take here .) A lot of this reflects the unwinding of expectations for a Bolsonaro victory which had risen …
These are volatile times in energy markets as conflicts affect the transportation and refining of energy products. And in other commodities there is potential for further unwinding of investor interest in precious and industrial metals. Our Commodities …
There has been a lot of discussion about winners and losers this week. Of course, we’re referring to the effects of Wednesday’s Budget rather than tonight’s final of The Celebrity Traitors (although we can’t decide whether John Healey would be a good …
At just under $4,000 per oz at the time of writing, gold prices are now back to where they were last Halloween, and ~25% below the peak of the rally reached in late-February. Having broken down in spectacular fashion between 2022 and 2025, the strong …
Growth undershoot supports cautious tightening cycle The unchanged GDP reading in August and projected 0.1% m/m fall in September implies that the economy grew by 1.3% annualised in the third quarter. This is not only far below the Bank of Canada’s …
