Overview – The extension of the ECB easing cycle into 2026 will support real estate markets. However, a softer economic outlook and the narrow spread of property to government bond yields mean even our upwardly revised expectation for euro-zone capital …
29th September 2025
ESIs point to resilient CEE growth The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September, but our regional measure of sentiment rose to a three-month high and points to continued …
Economy remains sluggish, inflation under control September’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission adds to the evidence that euro-zone GDP growth remained subdued in Q3, while inflationary pressures are under control. The small …
Net lending in August hits highest level since May 2020 At £2.5bn in August, net lending to property reached its highest monthly level since May 2020. This built on an already-strong few months in which net lending averaged £2.0bn and took the three-month …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. No evidence prospect of higher taxes is weighing on households’ decisions We’ll be discussing the outlook for UK growth, inflation, interest rates, and financial markets in …
The Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace at which inflation is moderating across Japan and we still believe that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle at its October meeting. Following the release of weaker-than-expected Tokyo CPI figures on …
The share prices of some of the world’s largest health care companies have rallied a bit today, despite Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday of a tariff of 100% on US imports of branded or patented pharmaceutical products from 1 st October. That’s …
26th September 2025
The clock is ticking for Congress to extend the Federal government’s spending authority, which will expire when the next fiscal year begins at 12:01am on October 1 st (next Wednesday), triggering a partial shutdown. It is possible that Congress will reach …
We expect capital values to see another drop in 2026. But led by strong rent growth in Miami, we think southern markets will start to recover before the end of next year. Occupier demand in these metros will be supported by higher rates of office …
Russia’s revised 2025 budget deficit and the draft budget for 2026-28 announced this week suggest that policymakers are committed to fiscal tightening, through tax hikes to raise additional revenues and efforts to limit further military and social …
The US dollar is on track to end the week stronger against most other major currencies thanks largely to investors further paring back their expectations for Fed rate cuts. (See Chart 1.) Although political developments have dominated the headlines this …
Milei gets big backing from the US The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina amidst the recent volatility in the country’s financial markets following the defeat …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2025) …
It’s striking how quickly the political momentum has shifted. In January, the government was still riding high in the polls after its landslide election victory. Fast forward nine months and the Labour Party is deeply divided and is trailing far behind …
The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as two bright spots in North Africa as improved …
AGOA end would be symbolic, macro impact small The African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) is set to expire on Tuesday and, while this would deal only a modest blow, it would mark yet another way in which the US is disengaging from the region, leaving …
Weakest population growth since the pandemic The population grew by just 0.2% in quarterly annualised terms in the second quarter, the slowest rate since the pandemic and far below pre-pandemic norms. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Population (%q/q, annualised) …
The ECB insists interest rates are "in a good place", but it's a view which we think will shift in the coming year. Join our Europe team for a briefing all about how their latest analysis and forecasts for the euro-zone point to the central bank coming …
Consumers doing fine despite softer payrolls The strong 0.4% m/m rise in real consumption in August, coupled with an upward revision to growth in July, is further evidence that economic activity continues to do well despite slower payrolls gains. Together …
Technical recession likely avoided, though the economy continues to struggle Although July GDP surprised to the upside, the flash estimate that output was unchanged in August will temper any optimism about the economy quickly gaining momentum. While a …
Tariffs are back in the headlines after Donald Trump’s latest announcements – but how much of a threat do these new levies really pose? Could they fuel inflation pressures, and is Trump’s trade policy really bringing manufacturing jobs back? Neil Shearing …
Challenges facing US oil to escalate from here Pessimism in the US oil industry increased in the third quarter, as shown by the sharp fall in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey company outlook index. High uncertainty about both US policy and the future path of …
Overview – Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to cut interest rates quicker and deeper than …
The economic impact will be limited China will stop seeking the “special and differential treatment” accorded to developing countries in the World Trade Organisation, Premier Li Qiang told the UN General Assembly this week. Under WTO rules, developing …
Economy sluggish but not due to US tariffs We think that economic growth in the euro-zone will pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no …
RBI likely to loosen policy despite weaker rupee The Indian rupee hit another record low against the US dollar this week and remains among the worst performing emerging market currencies this year. The rupee’s depreciation against the dollar has …
Something for Indonesia to celebrate Indonesia’s announcement of a trade deal with the European Union provided respite this week for a government that has been on the defensive with investors over the direction of policy. But it’s unlikely that this will …
Inflation jitters may be overdone The release of hotter than expected Australian CPI data has put markets in a hawkish mood. They now believe that the RBA will only cut rates to 3.3% this cycle, whereas they were pricing in a terminal rate of 3.1% just …
We are re-sending this updated Rapid Response as the original version was missing some analysis. Exemptions will reduce impact of pharmaceutical tariffs The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1 st , the US will impose 100% tariffs on …
US-bound exports plunge Detailed export data compiled by the Bank of Japan suggest that higher US tariffs have become a clear headwind to Japanese exports. US-bound export volumes were the weakest they’ve been since 2021. (See Chart 1.) That said, overall …
Banxico continues with steady rate cuts Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered another 25bp interest rate cut, to 7.50%, at its meeting today and the communications were broadly unchanged, suggesting that easing will continue at the upcoming meetings. …
25th September 2025
The latest data are consistent with the world economy having recovered a bit more momentum in Q3. Industry has held up well, world trade has shrugged off tariffs, and an AI investment boom is underway in the US. That said, there are prominent pockets of …
The recent rise in interest rate expectations has not been kind to UK property equities, with the NAREIT price index currently down 18% y/y. On past form that implies commercial property capital values will also soon start falling. However, other leading …
We forecast a 50,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in September, as the continued slimming of the federal workforce limits any rebound in private payrolls growth. We also expect the unemployment rate to have been unchanged at 4.3% and average hourly earnings …
Lebanese bonds rally, but restructuring will be long Lebanon’s eurobonds have been on a tear so far this year, with spreads falling to their lowest this week since early 2021. While the new government is moving in the right direction to secure bilateral …
Flat sales growth testament to harsh buyer environment The low-and-barely changed level of existing home sales in August is yet more evidence of the quagmire the existing home market has been stuck in for a couple of years now. While the downward trend in …
Fair-value calculations which incorporate rental expectations suggest euro-zone all-property yields should hold steady in the medium term. However, the outlook differs by sector, with rises still likely for offices and retail while a stronger rental …
Overview – Asia’s economies look set for further weak growth over the rest of this year and to the end of 2026, as tighter fiscal policy and softer exports outweigh resilient consumption, which is being supported by looser monetary policy. The regional …
Economic growth remains strong despite employment slowdown The mother lode of data just released suggest the economy is still doing just fine, despite the slowdown in employment growth. Last year’s GDP growth was confirmed as strong in the annual …
Possible tax rises in the Budget on 26th November risk further restraining housing activity next year. What’s more, our new forecast for 10-year gilt yields to fall from 4.71% now to 4.25% next year (3.75% previously) suggests mortgage rates may provide a …
Yields in Switzerland and Japan may diverge even further over the next couple of years. But we don’t think Japan’s escape from zero rates will diminish the yen’s relative appeal as a safe haven. The Swiss National Bank’s hold today was unsurprising, …
SNB on hold for now, but negative rates to come While the SNB kept its policy rate at zero today and left its inflation forecast unchanged, we still expect policymakers to cut the policy rate into negative territory over the coming quarters. We think that …
Overview – The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it will be some time before growth returns to …
China’s stock market got a boost today, as Alibaba announced its latest plans for AI. Despite the challenges faced by China’s economy, we suspect there is more upside for MSCI’s tech-heavy China Index as the country’s own AI+ plan gets going. Admittedly, …
24th September 2025
Overview – China’s economy is much weaker than official figures suggest, but growth has held steady this year despite US tariffs. While both exports and fiscal spending will continue to support the economy over the next year, they will provide less of a …
We suspect the main reason why the long-run unemployment rate has shot up is the surge in immigration since the pandemic, as many of these migrants have struggled to find work. This suggests the equilibrium unemployment rate is a bit higher than it used …
Big budget deficits are fuelling fears about fiscal sustainability, but the potential negative effects on growth are receiving less attention. While Germany is embarking on a major fiscal expansion, the risk of crowding out private sector activity is …
Saudi Arabia’s reform push looks set to take another step forward with suggestions that it will lift foreign ownership limits on local equities before the end of this year. While such a move will help to attract fresh foreign capital inflows, we doubt …
