We spent last week visiting clients in Taipei, Beijing and Shanghai. There were some concerns about events in the Middle East and the wider external environment. But the overall mood was relatively upbeat, with most expecting continued strength in …
30th April 2026
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . UAE shakes up the global oil picture The surprise announcement on Tuesday that the UAE will be leaving OPEC+ points to a world in which global oil supplies are likely to be higher and …
Tisza inherits a strengthening recovery The much better-than-expected Hungarian Q1 GDP figure, and the rise in sentiment indicators this month, will give the incoming Tisza government more optimism that it may be able to achieve its ambitious growth …
Economy contracts amidst war, but Q2 likely to be much worse The 1.5% q/q fall in Saudi GDP in Q1 confirmed that spillovers from the Iran war are taking a heavy toll on the economy. This is the flash estimate and the figures could be subject to revision. …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . BoJ Board members revised down their forecasts for GDP growth for the current fiscal year at this week’s meeting and argued that risks to economic activity are tilted to the downside. So …
Exports buoy factory activity amid still sluggish domestic demand This report was first published on Thursday 30 th April, covering the official PMIs and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the RatingDog services and composite PMIs on …
Economy will lose momentum in response to energy shock The March activity data only show a small economic hit from the energy shock so far but we still think that the economy will slow noticeably over the next couple of quarters. Taking the retail sales …
Cautious easing continues The decision by Brazil’s central bank to cut interest rates by another 25bp today, to 14.50%, was accompanied by a large upward revision to its inflation forecast but no suggestion in the communications that the easing cycle will …
29th April 2026
The FOMC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, accompanied by moderately more hawkish communications, was overshadowed by Chair Jerome Powell announcing in the subsequent press conference that he intends to remain a Governor on the Federal …
Fed maintains easing bias despite pushback from regional bank presidents While leaving interest rates unchanged today, the Fed maintained its easing bias, reinforcing our view that its next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike. That said, the Fed's …
The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its revised projections for higher growth this year and next, mean there are growing upside risks to our view that policymakers will wait until …
The US blockade has cut Iran’s financial lifeline and strains are growing in its balance of payments. Estimates of Iran’s accessible FX reserves suggest that these cover no more than three months’ of pre-war imports. So unless the regime seeks concessions …
Join our upcoming drop-ins to hear our economists' views and get answers to your questions. On the 7th May we are hosting a drop-in on the UK economic outlook in which we'll be assessing macroeconomic scenarios (register here ) and on 20th May …
Real estate is undergoing a structural revolution. The rise of e-commerce, remote working, and, more recently, artificial intelligence has overturned expectations for returns across traditional sectors. In the face of significant cyclical and structural …
Bank acknowledges possibility of rate hikes alongside higher growth projections The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its updated projections for higher growth this year and next, make …
China is widely seen as a key “winner” of the Iran conflict–driven energy shock, thanks in part to its dominance in green tech manufacturing. But how big is the upside? Will it last if energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are restored? And what does …
Given the fall in households’ real incomes will mean households have less cash to save, we expect the monthly flow into bank deposits to ease in our baseline scenario. But if we are wrong, it is likely to be because the boost to bank deposits from higher …
China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) …
Timely data package suggests upside risks to first-quarter GDP growth The batch of data just published suggest the risks to our estimate that first-quarter GDP growth will come in at 2.5% annualised in tomorrow’s advance release are skewed to the upside. …
Colombians head to the polls on 31 st May in an election which has major implications for the outlook for the economy and financial markets. This Update sets out the state of play, highlights the key challenges facing the next president and assesses how …
ESI points to stagnation, price pressures rise further April’s EC survey suggests the Iran war may hit euro-zone activity a bit harder than we are forecasting. Services firms’ selling price expectations rose further but not enough for the ECB to take …
BoT leaves rates on hold, but further easing is likely Thailand’s central bank (BoT) left its key policy rate unchanged today at 1.00% and hinted that it is in no rush to resume its easing cycle. However, with price pressures very weak and the economy …
With the major central banks lining up to talk tough on inflation this week, and investors on edge about fiscal problems in many places, we think there are some other growing medium-term risks facing bonds that may be under-appreciated. The BoJ kicked off …
Inflationary pressures in the pipeline remain substantial Despite some tentative signs of economic weakness, capacity pressures remain high RBA will judge that upside inflation risks outweigh downside risks to growth The RBA will raise rates by another …
Soaring inflation will prompt RBA to hike rates to 4.6% Inflation didn’t rise as much last quarter as most had anticipated but the full impact of the energy cost shock has yet to be felt. Consumer prices jumped by 1.4% q/q last quarter, which lifted the …
Higher revenues on the back of elevated oil prices and stronger economic growth were behind downward revisions to the budget deficit projections in the Spring Economic Update (SEU). While the economic backdrop has improved, we still think heightened …
While a one-year rent freeze would temporarily suppress rents for households currently in rental contracts, a further squeeze of landlords’ possible returns risks exacerbating the already tight supply of rental properties. In turn, that could push up …
28th April 2026
Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online Drop-In briefing on Wednesday, 29th April at 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT. Register here for the 20-minute session. This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s …
This month’s surge in semiconductor share indices mainly seems to reflect signs of growing demand for CPUs used for AI inference and a related need for more high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. Semiconductor share indices have been on another tear, at least …
The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC has caught some in the market off guard and raised important questions about the group’s future. Our economists addressed what comes next in this special briefing on Wednesday, 29 April. During this 20-minute session, the …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) …
We still believe that AI will alter the nature of work, rather than significantly diminish the role of human labour. While it is not impossible that AI eventually displaces most or all jobs, such an outcome requires very strong assumptions. Even then, …
Sub-1% house price inflation for the first time since 2023 The surprise fall in house prices in February suggests the market was on even weaker footing than previously thought ahead of the jump in mortgage rates tied to the Iran war. Despite this, we are …
Today’s surprise announcement by the UAE that it will leave OPEC+ from 1st May will not have any immediate implications for the global energy market, but it does suggest that global supplies will be higher than would otherwise be the case once the Strait …
Rise in inflation won’t preclude another 25bp cut tomorrow The jump in inflation in Brazil to 4.4% y/y in the first half of April shouldn’t prevent Copom from cutting its policy rate by another 25bp, to 14.50%, at tomorrow’s meeting. The outturn was down …
Easing cycle unlikely to resume until next year Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged at 6.25% today and, despite the rally in markets after the Tisza election victory and below-target inflation, we think renewed interest rate cuts are …
Extreme heat is now compounding the challenges of rising fertiliser prices and deficient monsoon rains to undermine yields in Indian agriculture. Industry and services could be hit too; a surge in demand for electricity to power cooling devices at a time …
Concerns about AI’s impact on jobs are intensifying, with recent labour market data prompting debate over whether emerging signs of displacement reflect a genuine shift or simply cyclical noise. As the technology advances rapidly, a critical question is …
The ECB’s Q1 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) suggests that the negative effects of higher energy prices on economic activity in the euro-zone could be bigger than we have assumed. At the same time, the jump in inflation expectations revealed by the ECB’s …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s growth accelerated last month, with higher oil prices doing little to dampen industrial activity. Indeed, over Q1 as a whole, China’s economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2024. We’re not expecting a …
The Politburo has just held its triannual gathering to discuss the economy. The post-meeting communique suggests the leadership has turned more positive on current conditions and sees less of a case for additional policy support. The Iran War looks to …
Hungary’s decisive election result has improved investor sentiment and medium-term economic prospects. While it is still early days, we think it will bring positive spillovers to real estate, with Budapest offices best placed to benefit. Tisza’s recent …
While the BoJ kept policy settings unchanged today and turned more pessimistic about the outlook for economic activity, policymakers seem more worried about the inflationary consequences of higher energy prices. Accordingly, the Bank will probably hike …
With disruptions to global energy markets now having lasted two months this Update asks, and answers, three key questions about how financial markets have fared so far. First, why have equities recovered (in aggregate), even with oil prices and …
Bank of Japan will probably hike rates in June While the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged today, its Outlook report was hawkish and we’re sticking to our forecast that the Bank will hike rates in June. The Bank’s decision to leave rates …
Income returns are already accounting for almost all the total return in the traditional sectors, but senior housing stood out positively again in Q1, seeing strong capital growth and posting a 3.9% quarterly return. We expect regional and core sector …
27th April 2026
Private Credit Risks …
13th April 2026
The rapid growth of private credit CLOs has prompted comparisons with subprime CDOs in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. However, while there are some similarities, namely their opacity, the small size of the market and the tightening in …
