The minutes of the October FOMC meeting were unusually blunt, warning that “many” Fed participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year. Nevertheless, the views of the 12 voting members on the FOMC might skew a little more dovish than the broader group of 19 participants. FOMC Vice Chair John Williams caused quite a stir on Friday when he revealed that he favoured another “near-term” cut. According to our arithmetic, that’s still only four ayes in favour of a December rate cut and six nays against but, to the extent that Williams and Fed Chair Jerome Powell often hold the same view (and Governor Lisa Cook usually votes with Powell), we could have an unprecedented six-six tie.
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