Coffee prices have fallen back from their record highs, and overall, we think that they will edge lower over the course of the year. That said, several risks could keep coffee prices elevated by historical standards. Not least, the geopolitical tensions …
20th January 2026
The latest polls suggest that Viktor Orbán’s long-ruling Fidesz party could lose power in Hungary’s parliamentary election on 12 th April. This Update answers five key questions on the implications of the vote. The short point is that a change of …
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be keen to demonstrate continued fiscal restraint when she delivers her ninth Union Budget on Sunday 1 st February. But the current political backdrop is not very forgiving. The most likely outcome is that some …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jobs market still weak, but stubborn wage growth will concern the BoE While the labour market remains soft, the stability of overall pay growth in November diminishes the chances …
We hosted an online Drop-In session today to discuss escalating tensions over Greenland and their economic implications. (Recording available here .) This Update provides answers to some of the questions that we received and highlights a range of relevant …
19th January 2026
There were some signs of life in the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, with the pick-up in the indicator of future sales suggesting that the outlook for GDP growth is much better than the recent data would suggest. That said, the further decline …
Another below-target monthly gain in core prices The second-consecutive below-target monthly gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median should further reduce speculation that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates this year. If anything, coupled with the data …
Rate cuts unlikely until H2 The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and we think that high inflation will continue to prevent interest rate cuts until the …
December’s inflation data add weight to our view that the pick-up in services inflation towards the end of last year was, to coin a phrase, transitory. We expect it to decline in January and trend down throughout 2026, bringing core inflation below 2% …
The Greenland crisis …
The aphorism “where you stand depends on where you sit” is well applied to the global economy. Beyond the value of reconnecting with clients, my trip to the Middle East and Asia last week was a reminder that debates around global macro can be too narrowly …
If implemented and sustained for a long period, the new tariffs that President Trump has threatened over the Greenland dispute could cost the euro-zone economy something between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP, with a bigger hit for Germany. In practice though, we …
We are hosting a 20-minute online briefing to discuss the "Greenland Crisis" at 11am GMT today. (Register here .) If President Trump’s latest tariff threats were actually implemented, they would add to the existing pain for UK car and pharmaceutical …
While the rhetoric around the Trump administration’s interest in Greenland is escalating rapidly, financial markets have taken the return of US-Europe trade tensions over recent days largely in their stride. The risk of a re-run of last year’s tariff …
Official figures likely overstate the strength of the economy Although full- year growth came in at 5.0 % y/y, in line with the government’s target , we estimate that the actual pace of economic expansion was at least 1.5%-pts weaker. The December …
Our base case remains that Japan will avoid a fiscal crisis as its public debt dynamics are more favourable than is widely understood. However, there are mounting risks that PM Takaichi will only rein in her reflationary tendencies once bond markets start …
It remains unclear whether President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless a deal is reached to acquire Greenland will ever materialise. But if it does, the economic impact would be modest: at face value, the tariffs would …
18th January 2026
Although the yen has recovered a bit of ground against the dollar in the past few days, its prior weakness remains something of a puzzle. One explanation is that the weakness has reflected a relative rise in expected inflation in Japan. But while expected …
16th January 2026
The large falls in manufacturing and wholesale sales volumes (see here ) are downside risks to the flash estimate that GDP rose by 0.1% m/m in November, after October’s 0.3% drop. If GDP were unchanged in November, it would leave it on track for a …
Construction still bucking weakness elsewhere The housing market ended the year on a weak footing, with both sales and house prices continuing to fall. The outlook for this year is a little brighter, with tightening supply of new listings likely to …
Wait for the SCOTUS tariff ruling continues The wait continues for the Supreme Court’s judgement on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-invoked tariffs. Speculation had mounted that the Court would release its ruling this Wednesday. The Court does not …
Inflation falls sharply, but set to rise again this month The further sharp fall in Russian inflation, to 5.6% y/y in December, will be welcomed by the central bank but this is likely to be temporary as a result of the VAT hike that came into force this …
The ECB does not face the same imminent threat to its independence as the US Fed, but it could come under more pressure from politicians in future. However, it would be much harder for governments to influence monetary policy in the euro-zone than in …
Can you pitch yourself as a responsible global stakeholder at the same time as running a $1.2 trillion trade surplus? That’s China’s big global macro play, and it’s one that Neil Shearing thinks China is going to struggle to pull off. The Group Chief …
Angola aggressive cuts despite growing imbalances Angola’s central bank cut interest rates by more than we expected this week in response to struggling growth. But with macroeconomic imbalances building, we worry that the kwanza looks vulnerable to falls. …
This interactive dashboard presents all of our CE bond forecasts out to end-2027, including yield and total return forecasts denominated in a range of currencies. The dashboard also features analysis of interest rate expectations and US Treasury term …
This interactive dashboard presents all of our financial market forecasts out to end-2027, including equities, bonds, commodities, REITs and FX. Forecasts are provided for both prices/yields and total returns, and are offered in a range of currency …
Baby steps towards US-Venezuela rapprochement Developments over the past week or so suggest a tentative rapprochement between the US and Venezuela under interim President Delcy Rodríguez. The Venezuelan government released “an important number” of …
Iran protests take centre stage It’s highly uncertain how the protests in Iran – which caught global attention this week – will play out from here. We published an Update on the potential macro implications here and dug further into the possible effect on …
Improved December caps off another bleak year for manufacturers While December’s industrial production figures were generally more positive than previous months’, the key takeaway when looking back on last year is that tariffs have not triggered any …
Exporters are expanding into new markets Trade data released earlier this week show that China’s goods trade surplus continued to climb last year, hitting a record $1.2trn. (See Chart 1.) Relative to global GDP it is the largest trade surplus that any …
February may be too soon for another rate cut With almost every major data release suggesting disinflationary pressure is building we had thought the Bank of England would cut interest rates again from 3.75% now to 3.50% at its February meeting. But …
We learnt this week that the euro-zone’s household saving rate remained very high in Q3 last year. It fell a little, but only from 15.4% in Q3 to 15.1%, which left it at a high level by historical standards. For example, the average level during the 2010s …
EU natural gas prices fire up Developments in Iran were a key driver of rising energy prices at the start of the week. (See here and here .) But while oil prices fell back after President Trump opted against taking military action in Iran, EU natural gas …
US exports resilient, Russian oil imports elevated The December trade data released on Thursday showed that India’s goods deficit widened marginally to $25bn, from $24.5 in November. Export growth slowed to just 1.9% y/y, down from 19.4% in November. That …
The chance of the ECB launching a digital euro has risen over the past year. However, it is unlikely to see light of day until 2029 at the earliest and, by design, total holdings are likely to be fairly limited. We first wrote about the ECB’s plans for a …
The trade deal struck between Taiwan and the US, alongside another bumper earnings report from TSMC, strengthens our conviction that Taiwan will record another year of rapid GDP growth in 2026. There remains uncertainty over whether the trade deal (or at …
The yen conundrum Rumours of a snap election over the weekend sent the 10-year JGB yield to fresh highs of nearly 2.2% earlier this week, while the yen approached 160 against the dollar for the first time since 2024. The government confirmed on Wednesday …
Another year of solid growth GDP growth in Malaysia picked up further in Q4 and with the economy set to hold up well, we doubt the central bank will ease monetary policy at all this year. According to the advance estimate for Q4 GDP published today, …
Pickup in consumption warrants tighter policy We got more evidence this week that the Australian consumer is in the midst of a spending spree. The ABS’ monthly household spending indicator (MHSI) continued to rise at a breakneck speed in November , having …
The PBOC has announced plans to cut interest rates on structural policy tools, and suggested broader-based policy rate cuts are on the horizon. But we doubt rate cuts will be enough to drive up loan growth. China’s central bank announced today that …
15th January 2026
A weak economic outlook, increased efficiency of new buildings and worsening affordability are all weighing on demand for industrial assets, which has fallen to a 15-year low according to RICS. That supports our view that industrial rental growth will …
Brazil’s labour market has been a key pillar of strength during the post-pandemic boom, but there are signs that conditions are now starting to cool. While this should take some pressure off wage growth, the labour market will remain an area of concern …
A slew of data released in the first couple of weeks of the year suggests that retailers had a disappointing so-called “Golden Quarter”. We suspect this is a sign of things to come and forecast that consumer spending growth will disappoint the consensus …
Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of years, bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio down …
Headlines have been dominated this week by the nationwide protests in Iran. The US appears to have backed away from military intervention, for now, but the situation remains extremely fragile and the prospect of some form of regime change in Iran appears …
The UAE’s economy enjoyed another strong year in 2025. Rising oil output will continue to support headline GDP growth over the coming quarters. And while there are signs that that activity in the rest of the economy is starting to soften, supportive …
Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) …
The government’s ongoing efforts to shorten its debt issuance mix is likely helping to address the demand/supply imbalance in the Gilt market and easing upward pressure on longer-dated Gilt yields. Combined with our view that the Bank of England will cut …
