Solid demand and a lack of new supply mean we expect senior housing vacancy rates to reach record lows in 2027 and stay at low levels in the following years, helping rent gains averages 4.5% p.a. over the forecast. Taken together with the current risk premium over Treasuries, we think senior housing valuations look attractive enough to pull in new capital, driving cap rates lower and helping total returns to exceed 10% p.a. over 2026-30, making it by far the best-performing sector over the forecast.
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