Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2026

We expect another slow year for investment in 2026 and a correspondingly poor (and below-consensus) outlook for total returns. On the bright side the improving apartments outlook will see it return 7% this year, outperforming the other major sectors and ending retail’s recent dominance. But it is senior housing that we expect to really knock it out of the park, with annual returns exceeding 13%. Meanwhile, though office cap rates are close to a peak, we expect capital values to continue falling as NOI declines go beyond 10% peak-to-trough, exceeding any drop seen since at least the turn of the century.