Has Tusk changed the tide in Poland? The 100 day milestone for Poland’s new government is marked today. From an economic perspective, we think there are three key points worth highlighting about how the outlook has and hasn’t changed. First, the release …
22nd March 2024
Further attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refining sector were the major driver of crude prices this week with the price of Brent remaining firmly above $85 per barrel. Reports that the US had urged Ukraine to halt the strikes may have tempered the price …
Production records a bright start to 2024 The robust increase in global steel production since the beginning of the year probably has a bit further to run since there are few signs that the two largest producers – China and India – will slow their supply …
Argentina: another strong budget outturn Coming hot off the heels of last week’s successful debt swap, there was further good fiscal news in Argentina this week. Budget data showed another large primary surplus in February (albeit smaller than January’s …
LGFVs stepping up land purchases Despite the collapse in home sales, construction activity has retreated only modestly in recent years. We think the bulk of the correction has yet to come , with construction activity likely to halve by the end of this …
SARB: will rate cuts ever come? The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) looks set to leave interest rates on hold at 8.25% next week and it now seems an easing cycle won’t begin until after May’s election, the outcome of which could even persuade the SARB …
The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June. Fed content with more gradual inflation fall Despite recent …
The surprise fall in February leaves CPI inflation on track to average 2.8% this quarter, well below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 3.2%. As the decline in inflation pressures was broad-based, there is a growing likelihood that the Bank of Canada will …
Heading for another decent quarter Despite only modest rises in retail sales volumes in January and February, the earlier strength in December means that growth should remain strong this quarter. The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales was a little smaller than …
The Bank of England was never going to do anything except keep interest rates at 5.25% this week, but we and the financial markets were surprised that it took further steps in preparing the ground for the first interest rate cut. (See here .) As a result, …
Data released this week broadly support our view that the euro-zone economy will have stagnated in Q1. The Composite PMI rose a touch in March but remained consistent with GDP flatlining. And the ZEW painted a similar picture. Admittedly, we also learned …
GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here, we think the EM monetary easing cycle will broaden …
Political uncertainty in Vietnam on the rise One of Vietnam’s key appeals to foreign investors is its political stability relative to other low-income countries in the region. (See Chart 1.) Along with low labour costs and an improving business …
Little change in language, possible easing from mid-2024 Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central …
Note: We will be discussing the outlook for residential markets across the US in a 20-minute online briefing on Tuesday April 16th. Find out more here . Overview – This year is being flagged by many as the year the recovery starts, but there is still a …
Germany Ifo Survey (March 2024) Although the Ifo Business Climate Index rose quite sharply in March, much of the improvement was in the volatile expectations component and it remained at an exceptionally low level. We still think the economy is likely to …
Election season is here After a seemingly interminable wait, the Election Commission this week finally confirmed the dates for the general election. Almost a billion people are eligible to vote, making it the largest expression of democratic principles …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Shoppers largely shrug off wet weather as retail rebound only paused Unchanged retail sales volumes in February (CE forecast 0.0% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), as shoppers largely …
Rate cut in August remains plausible At its meeting earlier this week, the RBA dialled down its hawkish bias, with Governor Bullock noting that “the risks to the outlook are finely balanced”. However, her statement may well have been a little premature. …
Run-off in bond holdings will accelerate The Bank of Japan didn’t disappoint at this week’s meeting as the Bank ended negative interest rates, Yield Curve Control and its ETF purchases. Even so, 10-year JGB yields declined and the yen weakened to as low …
Japan’s exit from negative interest rates could place some upward pressure on bond term premia elsewhere, but we don’t think it will prove too disruptive to markets even if the BoJ ultimately hikes a lot more than we expect. Investors largely took the …
Inflation will return to BoJ’s target by year-end The renewed jump in headline inflation in February leaves the door open for another rate hike by the Bank of Japan, but with underlying inflation moderating the case for tighter policy is weakening. The …
21st March 2024
Easing cycle begins but rate cuts to be slow going Mexico’s central bank finally embarked on an easing cycle today, lowering its policy rate by 25bp to 11.00%, but the fact that the vote was split and that Banxico didn’t commit to further rate cuts …
This week’s flurry of central bank meeting points to growing confidence among policymakers in most major economies that inflation is on track back to target. That supports our view that long-term government bond yields will fall back a bit further this …
The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, while the UK and Japan seem to be pulling out of recession heading into Q2. The survey indicators of price pressures moved in different directions, but in general remain a …
Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows Overview – Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. …
Note: We will be discussing the outlook for European commercial real estate markets in a 20-minute online briefing at 10am BST on Wednesday 10th of April. (Register here .) Overview – Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the …
Existing home sales accelerate despite higher mortgage rates Existing home sales rose in February which we think largely reflects the sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But borrowing costs have been rising so far in 2024, which in the …
With the Bank of England striking a slightly more dovish tone whilst keeping interest rates at 5.25% and inflation likely to fall further and faster than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in June is possible and that rates will fall to 3.00% in …
Egypt: appreciation for the CBE’s policy shift After the “Super Wednesday” devaluation on 6 th March, the pound has appreciated over the past week or so and it appears as though officials have (so far) stuck to their pledge to let the currency move more …
Slight dovish tilt, and fast fall in inflation will make BoE more dovish before too long The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row and, despite no MPC members no longer voting to raise interest …
Despite the booming economy, inflationary pressures in Taiwan are likely to remain subdued. Accordingly, we think today’s unexpected rate hike by the central bank (CBC) will prove to be a case of one and done. Today’s decision to raise the policy rate by …
In the wake of this week’s FOMC and BoJ policy announcements we are revising our forecast for the Japanese yen. While we still expect the Japanese yen to rebound over the course of 2024, we now project it to reach 140 by the end of the year and 135 by …
The tailwinds that have underpinned the rebound in the dollar this year seem, to us, to have run their course. While we wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar stayed firm over the coming months, we still think the greenback will edge lower – particularly …
Governor Karahan retakes the initiative Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy rate by 500bp at today’s meeting, to 50.00%, and its hawkish communications leave open the possibility of another rate hike in April. With the potential for a …
The SNB under Chairman Thomas Jordan has never shied away from making big calls, so it was fitting that it surprised markets with a 25bp rate cut today, to 1.5%, only three weeks after Mr Jordan announced he would leave his post in September. We expect …
Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall GDP will probably be larger than any single economy bar …
Recovery strengthens Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for February suggest that loose fiscal policy and continued fast wage growth helped the economy to recover at the start of this year. We maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of …
Surprise hike but further tightening unlikely Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) unexpectedly raised its main policy rate today amid concerns about inflation. However, we think the central bank’s concerns are overdone, and expect this to be a case of one and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further signs of the UK economy having moved out of recession We’ll be discussing the outlook for Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT …
SNB kicks off rate-cutting cycle The SNB became the first G10 central bank to cut rates this policy cycle, reducing its policy rate by 25bp to 1.5% today. This was in line with our non-consensus forecast, and with the Bank sounding more dovish and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stagnation continues, price pressures still high The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, in line with our forecast. Meanwhile, the price …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Disappointing borrowing figures won’t stop the Chancellor unveiling more tax cuts Note: We’ll be discussing the outlook for Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy in a 20-minute …
The valuations of “risky” assets have kept rising so far this year, even as “safe” asset yields have rebounded. While risky asset valuations are quite high by past standards, we doubt this will prevent equities from rising a lot further this year and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The flash composite PMI reading for March suggests that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. While growth is likely to moderate over the coming quarters, India …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Labour market still set to loosen in the coming months The sharp drop in unemployment in February was likely a blip, rather than a trend. With job vacancies continuing to fall …
Q1 GDP decline should be followed by vigorous recovery The rise in the composite PMI to a seven-month high suggests that any fall in Q1 GDP should be followed by a strong recovery. According to today’s flash estimate, the composite PMI jumped from 50.6 to …
We are resending this publication because the previous one didn't contain any text. Better news from net trade points to smaller fall in Q1 GDP The trade balance didn’t fall nearly as much as most had anticipated in February and net trade will only …
20th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economic downturn will pave the way for aggressive rate cuts With the New Zealand economy in a double-dip recession, we’re sticking to our guns that the RBNZ will cut rates more …
Copom points to smaller cuts ahead The Brazilian central bank’s 50bp cut in the Selic rate to 10.75% today was never in doubt, but the change in the forward guidance supports our view that the easing cycle will slow to 25bp cuts soon (probably at the June …
