The quarterly survey of energy executives conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas always offers a handy window into the thoughts of key decision makers in the US oil and gas sector. But amidst the acute uncertainty caused by the war in the Middle …
27th March 2026
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here , but we have highlighted some key pieces below. Rates on hold for the foreseeable in CEE The early signs suggest that the Iran conflict and surge in energy prices have had only a limited …
Visit our Iran Conflict page for all of our analysis. President Yoon has nominated Shin Hyun-song to succeed Rhee Chang-yong as governor of the Bank of Korea when his term ends on 20 th April, shortly after the 10 th April monetary policy meeting. Barring …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weakening consumer confidence a sign of things to come The modest fall in retail sales volumes in February meant that retail activity held onto most of its gains at the start of …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . Electricity rates to ease, but petrol prices to spike Australia’s February CPI data released this week showed large moves in the energy components even prior to the Iran conflict. For …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . In our latest Global Economic Outlook we outlined two scenarios for how the Iran war could evolve, with the adverse one implying a further rise in energy prices. In our baseline scenario, …
Dovish surprise as Banxico maintains easing bias Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered a dovish surprise today as it lowered its policy rate by 25bp, to 6.75%, and signalled that it would consider cutting interest rates again. While this could …
26th March 2026
Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital …
This Chart Pack was updated on 17th April to reflect the latest changes to our baseline scenario forecasts. …
The rise in global energy prices will push inflation back above central bank’s targets across CEE economies this year and prevent further interest rates cuts for the foreseeable future. We’ve lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecasts by 0.3-0.5%-pts. While …
With uncertainty in financial markets remaining high, we have published a new set of macro and market forecasts built around two key “scenarios”. For now, our baseline assumption is that equities, bonds and the US dollar rally over the rest of 2026. The …
This time last week, the Iran war seemed to be at a tipping point and recent developments provide, in the words of China’s foreign minister, “a glimmer of hope” that things are moving towards de-escalation. President Trump backed away from a threat to …
We estimate that non-farm payrolls rebounded by an above-consensus 125,000 in March following the disruption from severe weather and strikes in February. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate is likely to have edged higher to 4.5%. Payrolls to bounce back …
The South Africa Reserve Bank held it repo rate at 6.75% again today as it made clear that it will look through the initial energy price shock. For now, so long as the war ends in the coming weeks as we assume under our baseline scenario, interest rate …
Higher energy prices will push headline inflation up in Switzerland this year, but we think that it will remain well within the SNB’s target range. So rather than raising interest rates as is discounted in the market, we think the Bank will leave interest …
Inflation falls but energy price shock looms The fall in inflation in Brazil to 3.9% y/y in the first half of March is likely to be temporary amid the rise in global energy prices, but we think it would take a much larger energy shock to derail the …
The state of emergency now in place in the Philippines gives the government powers to address the most acute strains in access to essential inputs, but it won’t prevent an economic shock. The central bank looked through the jump in local fuel prices and …
Our updated forecasts for emerging markets reflect the impact of the spike in oil and gas prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict. In this online briefing on Thursday 16 April, our economists distilled the key insights from the latest forecasts, …
Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price shock. The RBA will respond by moving policy into restrictive territory, given the overheating economy and the risk of inflation expectations becoming …
The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s 2% target this year and we expect the BoJ to keep hiking rates roughly every six months to 2% by 2028. While a further increase in energy prices would …
Global Overview – A short conflict in Iran would push global inflation temporarily higher and trim GDP growth, but the fallout would be manageable. Central banks that had already begun tightening – such as the BoJ and RBA – would raise rates further, …
25th March 2026
Higher oil prices will result in slightly softer consumption in the near term than we previously expected, but we doubt recent events will derail the AI buildout. Thanks to strong AI-related investment, we expect GDP growth to average 2.4% this year and …
If the presence or otherwise of an AI-fuelled bubble in the stock market is determined solely by the relative valuation of its technology sectors, then any such bubble in the S&P 500 has already burst. Nonetheless, that doesn’t preclude a big correction …
Our latest Global Property Outlook delivers up-to-date forecasts and in-depth analysis about the commercial property outlook across major regions and sectors. In this online briefing on Wednesday 15 April, our Property team discussed the key insights from …
In our baseline scenario, WTI has already peaked but still averages $80 per barrel over the rest of the year, acting as a modest net positive for GDP growth and boosting headline inflation. Nonetheless, broader economic weakness and uncertainty around …
Weaker structural demand for gold left prices vulnerable to a pick-up in real yields and reduced risk appetite on the back of the conflict in Iran. But even if the conflict were to de-escalate soon, the same forces that had driven the gold rally could go …
Middle East war threatens German recovery The fall in the German Ifo BCI and the Composite PMI in March suggest that the renewed rise in energy prices could derail the tentative recovery in the German economy seen in recent months. We expect the economy …
Even though housing is the least affordable since the early-1990s, a pronounced shortage of housing supply has contributed to continued robust growth in house prices. While higher mortgage rates will probably result in a downturn this year, we expect it …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. All of our coverage of the macro and market implications of the Middle East conflict can be found here . Stuck at 3.0% even before energy price leap The economy entered the …
Inflation too strong for RBA even before Iran conflict The mild pullback in headline inflation in February won’t allay the RBA’s concerns about upside risks to the inflation outlook. We still think there’s a strong case for continued policy tightening. …
Energy shock halts the easing cycle, rate cuts pushed into 2027 Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged at 6.25% today, and we think the recent surge in global energy prices has effectively closed the door on the easing cycle for now. …
24th March 2026
In an environment of relatively weak economic growth, alternative sectors stand to benefit from a lower reliance on cyclical drivers, and support from structural trends that will drive long-term demand growth. As a result, we expect alternatives will …
The Iran conflict is more than just another shock to the global economy; it’s a reminder that the long-neglected supply side is becoming an increasingly potent source of macroeconomic instability. Policymakers and investors have focused overwhelmingly on …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy responding rapidly to higher energy prices March’s flash PMIs show that the conflict in the Middle East is already going a long way to boosting inflation and …
March’s euro-zone PMI survey shows that higher energy costs are weighing on demand and causing input prices to rise rapidly. The drop in the euro-zone’s Composite PMI from 51.9 in February to 50.5 in March left it a touch below the consensus forecast and …
Hit to Japan’s economy from energy shock limited so far The flash PMI for March suggests that the economic hit from the energy shock is limited so far. According to today’s flash estimate, the composite PMI softened from 53.8 to 52.5 in March. It’s worth …
The positive reaction to the latest news on the war provides some guide as to how things might fare if it de-escalates further, and suggests that the damage in some markets might be a bit longer-lasting than in others. After a rough start to the week , …
Government measures artificially subduing headline inflation Inflationary pressures are more entrenched than the weak headline result would for February would suggest. Indeed, we believe that the Bank of Japan’s preferred measure of core inflation will …
23rd March 2026
Iran conflict hitting sentiment The unusually large drop in the EC’s measure of consumer confidence, from a revised -12.3 in February to -16.3 in March, suggests that the Iran conflict is already denting sentiment. A lot will depend on the duration and …
With the global economy potentially facing the largest energy supply shock in history, this Update considers how the oil market may adjust to a new equilibrium in the medium-to-long term. Demand destruction is a permanent or sustained decline in the …
The rise of China has brought both costs and benefits to the euro-zone over the past two decades, but policymakers are increasingly focusing on the costs. We expect the EU to impose more trade defence measures on specific industries in the coming years, …
This year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) delivered strong pay hikes for the third consecutive year, which will convince the Bank of Japan to tighten policy further this year. And while softer inflation despite the recent surge in energy prices could …
Escalation in the war remains bad news for asset markets. And while central banks haven’t themselves done much to de-escalate conditions in the bond market, there’s a case, in our view, for an eventual a recovery there. Escalate to de-escalate? Headlines …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here and we have highlighted some key pieces below. As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. These can be found in …
20th March 2026
Direct strikes on energy infrastructure in the Middle East this week have unnerved investors, pushing global oil prices higher and prompting sharp reassessments of the expected path for interest rates in most major developed countries. Futures pricing now …
Policymakers fail to rein in calls for rate hikes Over the past week we have learnt that the unemployment rate rebounded to 6.7% in February (and would have risen further if not for a sizeable decline in the labour force), monthly core inflation has now …
Higher oil prices will delay rate cuts The PBOC left loan prime rates on hold today, as was widely forecast. We’d been expecting the central bank to deliver two 10bp cuts to policy rates this year to help support credit growth and combat the deflationary …
The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most directly affected, but the blow-out in oil product margins …
