We doubt the recent pull-back in the price of gold will be unwound. Indeed, our new forecast is that the price will fall to $3,500/oz. by the end of 2026. We suggested in last Monday’s Capital Daily that gold might be in a bubble that would burst before …
27th October 2025
Strong AI-related business investment and resilient consumer spending means we now expect growth to average near-3% in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited evidence of tariffs on consumer prices will give the …
The larger-than-expected victory for Argentina’s President Milei in Sunday’s mid-term elections has sparked a rally in Argentinian financial markets. Our initial response to the election can be found here and we discussed the implications of the elections …
We will be hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 9am GMT on Tuesday 4 th November to discuss how tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November could influence the UK housing market. (Register here .) Overview – Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns …
Capital values were broadly flat in Q3 and total returns reached 1.2% q/q, unchanged from Q2. While the main sector ranking is consistent with our views – retail and residential leading, office and industrial trailing – we continue to think that overall …
The latest leg of the gold rally looks like a market bubble that is in its final stages. So unlike some analysts, we are revising our forecasts lower and now expect prices to fall to $3,500 per ounce by end-2026. For most of this year, we have generally …
France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond market weighing on the financial sector in particular. …
The pullback in gold prices over the past week shouldn’t have come as a surprise. The yellow metal has been on such an extraordinary tear this year that it had become even more unmoored from any fundamental valuations and so was ripe for a sharp …
German economy might be turning a corner The pick-up in the German Ifo chimes with that in the Composite PMI released on Friday and suggests that the German economy may be past the worst. This would be in line with our view that economy will pick up …
Milei gets a strong mandate to push reforms The strong showing for President Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party is not only an endorsement of his reform agenda but will also substantially increase the LLA’s representation in congress, which will help …
The dollar has edged higher over the week as a whole despite the soft US CPI data released earlier today. Even so, the DXY index remains a touch below its recent peak two weeks ago, before the re-escalation of US-China tensions. With concerns around …
24th October 2025
President Trump's termination of trade talks won't make a big difference to the near-term outlook, given rumours that any imminent deal would only provide modest tariff relief to the metals sectors. Meanwhile, Prime Minister mark Carney's goal to double …
Out of the darkness of a shuttered US government comes a rare data release – and it’s a CPI report that’s given markets some relief as the week draws to a close. But does September’s inflation data really clear the way for Fed rate cuts in December as …
The Federal government shutdown is headed into a fourth week. With the Senate still holding periodic votes that are doomed to fail – as lawmakers remain firmly split along party lines – and with the House still on an extended recess, prediction markets …
The US and EU have both taken steps this week which could increase pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. On Thursday, EU leaders discussed using Russia’s frozen assets to back a €140bn loan for Ukraine. In the event, opposition from Belgium, which …
While delayed US inflation data for September have seemingly made a Fed rate cut next week all but certain, we still think the growth and inflation backdrop are consistent with the Fed cutting rates by less than investors expect over the coming year. US …
China-Africa trade ties continue to grow Chinese trade data out this week showed that the surge in exports to Africa continued, which most countries in the region seem to be welcoming as it helps to contain inflation. Alongside steps to reduce the cost of …
Plan still more focused on supply than demand China’s 15 th Five-Year Plan, which covers the period from 2026-2030, will prioritise technological self-sufficiency and efforts to boost manufacturing. That was the overarching message from the Fourth Plenum …
High stakes in Argentina’s mid-term elections It’s been another roller coaster ride for Argentina’s financial markets this week, with the peso hitting a fresh record-low of almost 1,500/$. This comes amid heightened uncertainty about the outcome of …
Surveys suggest activity still outpacing employment The rebound in the S&P Global composite PMI to a 3-month high of 54.8 in October, from 53.9, puts it at a level that has historically been consistent with GDP growth of around 3% annualised. The …
We’re hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Wednesday 12 th November to discuss if the Chancellor’s second Budget on 26 th November will be as big and as bad for the economy as her first, and if it will dampen or ignite …
Fed gets the green light to cut The downside surprise to core CPI prices in September should make the Fed feel even more comfortable with its likely decision to cut interest rates next week, and presents a risk to our view that the Fed will be inclined to …
Will Trump “TACO” on Russian oil sanctions? Oil prices are set for their biggest weekly gain since June after the US imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers – Rosneft and Lukoil. We wrote about the implications for the global oil market …
We have updated this page as the original version contained an incorrect figure in the first paragraph. Inflation eases, but still too soon for rate cuts to restart The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.9% y/y in mid-October, is unlikely to …
Rift over rare earths and semiconductors This week the EU expressed concerns about China’s recent rare earths restrictions. (For more detail on those restrictions, see here .) This is understandable given that the euro-zone imports about 65% of its rare …
CBR slows easing as VAT hike approaches The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 50bp cut in its policy rate, to 16.50%, was pinned largely on the inflationary impact of the upcoming VAT hike. And …
We doubt that the recent turbulence in financial markets and credit losses in the US will mark an imminent end to the AI-driven equity market surge, although recent developments illustrate that the environment in US financial markets has become …
Taiwan’s boom still has legs Q3 GDP data due to be released next week are likely to show that Taiwan’s economy recorded another quarter of rapid growth and there are reasons to think that this strength will last a while longer. We think GDP growth in the …
Growth accelerating but still slow October’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy may have picked up a bit at the start of the fourth quarter, although we suspect that growth will probably remain low at around 0.2% q/q. The Composite PMI rose …
We’re hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Wednesday 12 th November to discuss if the Chancellor’s second Budget on 26 th November will be as big and as bad for the economy as her first, and if it will dampen or ignite the …
Supplementary budget set to exceed last year’s In a historic week, Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s first female Prime Minister on Tuesday. She immediately pledged to compile a supplementary budget that will reportedly surpass last year’s in size. However, …
An opportunity, but not a panacea Australian Prime Minister Albanese took a victory lap this week after having signed a critical minerals framework agreement with the US. The deal is an attempt by the two countries to counter China’s dominance over the …
PMI suggests GDP growth will cool to more sustainable pace While the composite PMI softened in October, it still points to a healthy expansion in economic activity. According to the flash estimate released today, the composite PMI weakened from 51.3 to a …
Mixed inflation print will leave BoJ in wait and see mode Although inflation excluding fresh food and energy softened somewhat in September, our sense is that there is still a strong case for the Bank of Japan to resume its tightening cycle. However, with …
US-Saudi security talks no longer a one-way street The US and Saudi Arabia are reportedly in talks over new security arrangements, reaffirming the push under President Trump to bring the Kingdom (and the rest of the Gulf) back into the US’s sphere of …
23rd October 2025
Although news of fresh US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector has sparked a jump in oil prices, the feedthrough to bond and equity markets has been limited and we expect that this will remain the case. The announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft …
On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil market into a deficit next year. That said, the …
Cheaper borrowing boosts sales Lower borrowing costs were behind the pick-up in existing home sales last month. As we expect less policy easing next year than markets are currently pricing in, however, mortgage rates should eventually rebound. As a …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct. 2025) …
Rebound in sales will not deter Bank from cutting again The solid rebound in retail sales in August will not do much to spare the economy from a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third quarter given the similar-sized fall in sales expected in …
Qatar has experienced a multi-year slowdown in credit growth and, in contrast to the past decade or so, lending is now expanding at a weaker pace than in the rest of the Gulf. We expect domestic credit conditions to remain tight, despite a loosening of …
Fall in inflation paves the way for another 25bp cut in November The dip in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in the first half of October, combined with the weakness in the economy, means that Banxico is likely to follow through on its forward guidance and …
ECB to leave interest rates unchanged and stick to neutral language on the outlook. But we think the Bank will cut interest rates in 2026. Lagarde will give short shrift to questions about intervening in France’s bond markets. The ECB will leave the …
CBRT’s smaller rate cut highlights inflation worries The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to further slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 39.50%, seems to reflect policymakers’ growing concerns …
China’s leadership has just wrapped up a closed-door meeting to discuss the upcoming Five-Year Plan. The message from the post-meeting communique is one of policy continuity, with technological upgrading and economic security still topping the agenda. The …
After a very strong run, India’s economy faces a more challenging few quarters in the face of punitive US tariffs. But hopes are growing again that these could be reduced. And in any case, domestic demand should hold up well, ensuring that India remains a …
The EU appears close to agreeing on a loan for Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets, that would be repaid by eventual reparations. This Focus explores the macroeconomic implications. The short point is that it allows the EU to provide large amounts of …
