Record shutdown would still have little impact

The Federal government shutdown is headed into a fourth week. With the Senate still holding periodic votes that are doomed to fail – as lawmakers remain firmly split along party lines – and with the House still on an extended recess, prediction markets suggest a 67% probability that the shutdown will end up exceeding the length of the previous record 35-day closure in 2018-2019. It is unlikely to last much beyond early-November, however, simply because the longer it continues, the more disruptive it will become.