Mexico’s exports of AI-related products to the US have surged and now rival its key auto exports. While there may be a degree of tariff front-running at play, the boom in US data centre investment appears to be more important. This will help to cushion …
13th August 2025
With interest rates staying high and closed-end funds already sitting on a large volume of investors’ capital, global real estate fundraising looks set to stay in the doldrums. We think the sector still needs a pricing reset that will see buyers and …
We think the Riksbank is likely to be in wait-and-see mode when it meets next week and will keep its policy rate at 2%. While some of the economic data were underwhelming in the second quarter, they were not bad enough to justify another rate cut at this …
Growth in government bond issuance won’t last There was a small pick-up in overall credit growth in China’s economy in July, as a result of a further surge in government borrowing. But bank loan growth has continued to slow, suggesting that private sector …
The near-term outlook for China’s equities could be quite positive, despite the apparent headwinds. Today was a good day for China’s stocks, especially offshore, with the Hang Seng up over 2% and outperforming most others. But, the market still has a lot …
Polish economy outperforming amid tariff storms The 0.8% q/q growth in the Polish economy in Q2 was a bit weaker than consensus expectations, but still confirms that the economy maintained solid momentum last quarter and supports our view that Poland will …
Very tight supply, looser lending criteria and our forecast for further falls in mortgage rates provide scope for house prices in the capital to rise by more than elsewhere over the next few years. After a period of outperformance between 2010 and 2016, …
BoT cuts rate, further easing to come Thailand’s central bank (BoT) cut interest rates by 25bps today to 1.50%, and its dovish commentary supports our view that further easing is likely in the coming months. The decision was anticipated by 23 of the 28 …
The RBNZ is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on August 20 th . Although inflation is set to remain in the upper half of the Bank’s 1-3% target band in the near-term, we suspect the Committee will be more concerned about timely …
Wage growth will moderate towards 3% While wage growth was a touch stronger last quarter than the RBA had expected, we think it will moderate again before long and won’t prevent the Bank from easing policy much further. The 0.8% q/q rise in the wage price …
Today’s July US CPI data came in broadly in line with consensus expectations, so have done little to shift the prevailing market narrative that the FOMC is on track to resume cutting its policy rate in September. However, the “twist steepening” of the US …
12th August 2025
President Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies has led to growing efforts within the bloc to present a united front in the face of US protectionism. But divisions between the members will ultimately limit how far political and …
Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in the coming years, but increased issuance by …
Solid tourism flows and a pick-up in consumer spending growth mean we believe both Rome and Milan prime retail rents will continue to outpace the euro-zone average over the next couple of years. While Milan prime retail rents held steady in Q2, rents in …
While the US jobs data captured the spotlight recently, the weakening of labour markets in most advanced economies has received less attention. Softer labour demand should dampen wage and price pressures in Europe and Canada but not in the US, where the …
Decent rental growth expectations and a narrowing risk premium imply that industrial is only marginally overvalued, despite an historically narrow gap between industrial yields and alternative asset yields. In turn, that implies industrial yields can …
Our new CE UK Unemployment Proxy extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of labour market slack and suggests that the labour market has loosened further than the Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment rate implies. Given the well-known issues …
Our UK Labour Market Indicators extract the overall signal from a range of measures of employment growth, unemployment and labour market slack. This dashboard was last updated on 14th October 2025. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying …
Another narrative shift for the Fed There was another narrative shift for the Fed in the July CPI data, with tariff effects once again barely perceptible but a stronger gain in services prices pointing to another above-target gain in the core PCE …
Inflation falls, but rate cuts unlikely before the end of the year The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.2% y/y in July, won’t change the outcome of the central bank’s next meeting in September, where interest rates will be left unchanged. But it lends …
The Egyptian pound has strengthened so far this year against the dollar, but by most measures the currency looks competitive. This will provide a boost to GDP growth over the coming years and reduce the risks posed by the current account deficit. After …
We expect the Switzerland-Germany 10-year government bond yield spread to widen a little further, even though it’s already the largest it has been in about three decades. Long-dated Swiss and German government bonds, once seemingly tightly linked, have …
Three years into his six-year term, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines has passed key reforms to improve the country’s business environment and infrastructure. However, worries about corruption persist due to the abolition of a key national …
Inflation at eight-year low opens door to further rate cuts The larger-than-expected fall in India’s headline inflation rate in July, to an eight-year low, raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further this year. But with inflation set to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Labour demand still cooling, but at a slower pace The further falls in payroll employment and job vacancies suggest that the labour market is still cooling, albeit only …
The RBA endorsed market expectations of further easing when it lowered the cash today and we think the Bank will ultimately slash rates to 2.85%. The Bank’s decision to lower the cash rate from 3.85% to 3.6% was correctly anticipated by all 40 analysts …
RBA will cut rates below 3% by mid-2026 The RBA endorsed market expectations of further easing when it lowered the cash today and we think the Bank will ultimately slash rates to 2.85%. The Bank’s decision to lower the cash rate from 3.85% to 3.6% was …
Hopes that recent data show China starting to emerge from deflation are likely to be disappointed. The recovery in core goods inflation last month mostly reflects the impact of government subsidies for consumer goods. There is little indication that price …
11th August 2025
Weak Chinese LNG demand has been a striking feature of the LNG market in 2025, and we suspect demand will remain soft into next year. Given China is the world’s largest buyer of LNG, weaker Chinese demand will weigh significantly on the strength of global …
A simple argument can be made that the US stock market would falter next month if the Fed didn’t cut rates, the logic being that Treasury yields would rise and reduce the present value of firms’ future earnings. But things might not play out that way. …
The announcement that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday has increased the possibility of a scenario in which the Ukraine war ends on terms favourable to Russia. That could ultimately result in an easing of some sanctions, providing …
Housing market on steadier footing Beginning with the good news, local real estate board data show that sales in four of Canada’s “early releaser” cities rose by 9% m/m in July, including a bumper 13% rise in Toronto. That gain points to a 6% rise in …
8th August 2025
The dollar has continued to edge lower in the wake of last week’s payrolls shock and a weak ISM reading this week as US interest expectations adjust lower. Given the extent of that adjustment – money markets now discount ~125bp of rate cuts over the …
Exporting carries on The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by 3.7% m/m. While total exports …
After an extraordinarily divisive Bank of England policy meeting, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explores why it’s become so difficult to get a clear read on the UK economy. Part of the problem lies with the data – an issue now making headlines in …
After notching one of their biggest 1-day falls in recent years last Friday, Treasury yields have this week traded in a historically tight range despite no shortage of catalysts. If we’re right to expect a hot US CPI print next week, that apparent calm …
The Bank of England’s hawkish tone at its policy meeting on Thursday has inevitably led to questions about whether interest rates will be cut again this year and whether the Bank’s rate-cutting cycle will soon end. (See here .) In some ways, the Bank’s …
US migration policies hit remittances The more than 16% y/y drop in remittances to Mexico (in dollar terms) in June suggests that the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented migrants is starting to have an impact south of the border. The decline …
Zambia should fix the roof while sun is shining Zambia secured another disbursement from the IMF this week, though it’s unclear whether it will try to extend its programme. We see little room for hesitation; fiscal strains remain severe, and continued …
We are revising up our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500, from 6,250 to 6,750. And we now project that the index will finish 2026 at 7,250, which is above our previous forecast of 7,000. After correctly predicting that the S&P 500 would soar in 2024 , we …
Labour market weakness justifies September rate cut The Labour Force Survey has once again made a mockery of the economist consensus, with the surprise 83,000 surge in employment in June followed by a 40,800 slump last month. We are now a bit more …
NBR unlikely to cut until (at least) mid-2026 The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, as expected, and its communications suggest a restart of the easing cycle remains some way off. We expect rates to remain on …
Consumer electronics could be hit too President Trump’s tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, threatened at 100% and 250% respectively, could have bigger implications for China than the modest scale of its chip and pharma exports to the US might …
EU protected from higher chip and pharma tariffs President Trump this week threatened a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports produced by firms that do not plan to invest in the US. We wrote about the global implications here . But in principle, the EU has …
Trump-Putin meeting in the spotlight Expectations that the touted Trump-Putin meeting could lead to a breakthrough in talks to halt fighting in Ukraine are likely to be fairly low. After all, little progress has been made towards ending the war so far. …
