What will happen to global trade now that the contours of Donald Trump’s tariffs regime are starting to take shape? It’s a question that kept cropping up in talks with clients in Copenhagen last week – for the shipping companies which are so central to …
22nd September 2025
We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to unpack the September meetings of major advanced economy central banks. (Recording available here .) The key takeaway was that in the US, markets seem to be overestimating how quickly and how far interest …
Viewed in an optimistic light, President Trump’s overhaul of the H-1B visa programme could benefit India’s economy if more high-skilled workers now stay in the country. But to the extent that remittances weaken, that could put the rupee under more …
China’s exports of the New Three are still growing at a strong pace as an increase in shipments to the EU is helping to absorb the hit from US tariffs on trade volumes. While there are signs of weakness in the broader trade data, the extent of China’s …
SARB hold of rates looks temporary The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged looks like a pause rather than a halt in the monetary easing cycle. With inflation expectations likely to trend lower from here, the stage …
19th September 2025
The US dollar is set to end the week up against most other G10 currencies after a strong couple of days, driven by investors paring back their expectations for rate cuts after this week’s FOMC meeting. We think this reassessment has further to run: two …
Bank of Canada officials signalled back in July they would support further interest rate cuts if labour market conditions continued to worsen, and this week they delivered, lowering the policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%. The weakening jobs market was not the …
For long-time Fed watchers, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference this week was a return to the glory days of Alan Greenspan during the 1990s and 2000s, when “the Maestro” first adopted a risk management framework for monetary policy. Given that the …
Recently released details about Germany’s fiscal plans suggest that it may take until the middle of next year to ramp up spending and that less of it will go on infrastructure than initially expected. This reinforces our view that there will be a smaller …
Another flashpoint for US-Colombia tensions The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations (sometimes termed ‘decertified') marks another step in the deterioration in relations between …
Russia’s fin min tightening budget policy Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov announced this week that the government will tighten its budget rule, setting the stage for what is likely to be broad fiscal tightening in the much-anticipated 2026 draft …
Fiscal tailwind to diminish but remain sizeable Data published on Wednesday showed that fiscal spending across the two main budgets slowed last month, adding to growing concerns about economic momentum. But the fiscal data are very volatile, so it is …
Third-quarter consumption growth set to slow moderately The sharp decline in retail sales in July is not as bad as it first looks, with August’s flash estimate pointing to a swift rebound, suggesting the weakness was mostly payback for earlier strength …
The Chancellor’s fiscal predicament got even trickier this week, for two reasons. First, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reportedly told the Chancellor that it is likely to downgrade its productivity (and therefore medium-term GDP) growth …
There’s plenty of talk about a possible settlement in US-China relations, but Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing urges caution. Ahead of a call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, he spoke with David Wilder about how a deal might be struck – and why it …
Data for July which were published this week suggest that the euro-zone economy continued to expand only slowly at the start of Q3. First, we learnt that exports were little changed on the month. (See here ). Second, industrial production rose by 0.3% …
From a commodity market perspective, the fact that the US Fed is now cutting rates again would usually, all else equal, be expected to boost prices. After all, a fall in interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding commodities as an asset. Lower …
The September IPF consensus survey forecasted all-property total returns of 7.9% p.a. over 2025-29. That was unchanged from May, with a downgrade to 2025 returns offset by a slight upgrade over the following years. That leaves our forecast for returns of …
Note: We’ll be discussing recent developments in Indonesia and the likelihood of further monetary and fiscal stimulus in India and China in a Drop-In on Thursday, 25th September at 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT . Register here . Indonesia increases deficit …
No immediate breakthrough on trade talks Talks between US and Indian trade officials resumed this week in Delhi, hinting at a slight thawing in relations that have become acrimonious over the past couple of months. But while an encouraging step, there …
Hawkish dissents at the BoJ While it came as no surprise that the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged at this week’s meeting , what was very unusual was that two Board members voted in favour of a rate hike. While that could be a red herring, the …
While the two dissents by BoJ Board members could be a red herring, we’re sticking to our long-held view that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle next month and lift rates to 1.5% by 2027. The Bank’s decision to leave its policy rate at 0.5% came as …
The flipside of pension plans’ waning demand for very long-dated bonds has been their waxing demand for equities. Indeed, in the case of US private defined contribution (DC) plans, the share of equities in total financial assets recently rose to its …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Public finances worsen despite economy not being terribly weak Today’s releases highlight the deteriorating nature of the public finances even though the economy hasn’t been …
We still think future Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes will give the yen a boost against the US dollar, despite the central bank’s cautious approach. At the time of writing, the yen had received a bit of a lift from the Bank of Japan today despite its …
Dovish BoJ may take more time before resuming tightening cycle The Bank of Japan’s decision to sell its ETF holdings doesn’t fundamentally alter its policy stance and its persistent dovishness poses risks to our forecast of a rate hike next month. The …
Bank to slash OCR to 2.25% by year-end The sharp 0.9% q/q fall in New Zealand’s real GDP last quarter was much worse than anyone had expected. Yet some analysts are arguing that a good part of the weakness is just noise. Because of the way price changes …
Price pressures stronger than they seem The Bank of Japan will probably look past the ongoing fall in headline inflation, given that underlying inflation is holding up reasonably well. Accordingly, we still think there’s a case for the Bank to resume …
We expect growth to average more than 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates further this year. …
18th September 2025
What does Fed loosening mean for the GCC? Gulf central banks followed the US Fed in cutting interest rates by 25bp which, at the margin, may help to sustain strong credit growth in parts of the region. But this impulse is likely to tempered by the …
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left the repo rate at 7.00%, but the decision was split with some MPC members voting for another cut. And with growth still sluggish, inflation weak, and inflation expectations coming down, it won’t be long before the …
Overview – The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as two bright spots in North Africa as improved …
SNB policymakers have recently pushed back against the prospect of lowering interest rates below zero, so they are likely to leave the policy rate at zero next week. However, we think inflation will be lower than officials’ forecasts in the coming months …
While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its concerns over rising inflation. As a result, we continue to think rates won’t be cut again until February. …
Policymakers in Indonesia can make a case that more monetary and fiscal support is warranted given the economic drag from recent protests and flooding as well as US tariffs, and the backdrop of low inflation. But the way officials are pursuing this – by …
The recent resilience of euro-zone trade is expected to continue in the coming quarters, which will support demand for industrial property near key ports. However, industrial demand near the ports of Antwerp-Bruges and Bremerhaven appears the most …
For updated and more detailed analysis see here . Inflation worries to prevent more rate cuts this year While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its …
After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a relative bright spot in …
Overview – The economies of Emerging Europe will diverge over the coming year as Russia’s war economy continues to run out of steam, while growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) picks up – albeit to varying degrees. Falling inflation and slower wage …
Although Europe’s natural gas supply is now more diverse than before the energy crisis, the fact that most of its gas is imported means it is still exposed to geopolitical and infrastructure-related disruptions. In theory, the establishment of a strategic …
If the sharp slowdown in fixed investment over the summer were to be sustained, China’s economy would suffer a hard landing. However, it appears mostly to reflect temporary weather-related factors and so should largely reverse over the coming months. …
CBC holds and in no rush to cut Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.00%) and, against the backdrop of rapid economic growth and low inflation, we expect policy settings to be left unchanged throughout our forecast …
