Ghana’s soft CPI narrows the odds of rate cuts Ghana’s surprisingly soft inflation print for July challenges the view we reiterated a few weeks ago that the BoG’s easing cycle has ended. Still, robust growth coupled with a desire to maintain the cedi’s …
7th August 2026
It has been an unusually hot and dry summer in Europe: average daily temperatures in July were up to six degrees Celsius higher than the average over the past thirty-five years, and there was only about 30% of the typical rainfall. For the economy, the …
Even if Iran’s proposed restrictions on US, Israeli, and other “hostile” ships using the Strait of Hormuz are passed into law, they are unlikely to be a major obstacle to energy flows given that most oil tankers are owned and operated by other countries. …
Google’s data centre ambitions run into opposition Reports this week that Google’s planned AI data centre in Andhra Pradesh is facing stiff opposition over its environmental impact have highlighted the challenges facing India’s digital ambitions. The …
Energy shock to leave only a modest mark Hungary and Romania face a near-term electricity supply squeeze after record-low water levels in the Danube disrupted cooling at their nuclear plants. Our base case is this will be a modest and temporary drag on Q3 …
BoK minutes point to further hikes This week saw the release of the Bank of Korea (BoK) minutes from the July meeting at which policymakers began a tightening cycle. (See here .) The minutes make clear that above-target inflation is the central bank’s …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. House prices stagnate in the face of high mortgage rates The stagnation in the Lloyds measure of house prices (recently rebranded from Halifax) in July chimes with the message …
The Philippines slowed further in the second quarter of the year as the impact of the ongoing anti-corruption campaign and higher inflation brought about by the crisis in the Middle East weighed heavily on demand. The weakness of the economy is likely to …
Resilient in face of higher energy prices The small increase in German industrial production in June follows increases in the two previous months and confirms that industrial output increased in the second quarter. Moreover, the rebound in business …
Still going strong The boom in Chinese trade slowed a touch in July but the big picture is that export and import values remain elevated, helped by soaring global demand for electronics and green tech products. Crude oil imports staged a partial recovery, …
Policy normalisation remains key Earlier this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the US had sold euros to buy yen as part of last Friday’s joint intervention. The operation helped lift the yen to ¥157 against the greenback, although …
NZ unemployment rate hits 11-year high New Zealand’s Q2 labour market data were a mixed bag as the unemployment rate rose to an 11-year high even though employment recorded the strongest gain since 2023. For now, the unemployment rate will probably remain …
Rates on hold, but a slight hawkish shift in tone Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) kept its policy interest rate on hold at 6.50% at today’s meeting and the overall communications were only marginally more hawkish than in June. The bias will remain towards …
6th August 2026
The direct economic effects of recent heatwaves across many northern hemisphere EMs are likely to prove limited. But taken together with El Niño, which is set to strengthen in the coming months, and climate change making hotter and more extreme weather …
Europe Chart Pack (August) …
The latest all-time high in the S&P 500 arguably looks healthier than its prior one in early June, at least based on measures of market breadth. We think that has helped clear the way for a further, perhaps final, leg up before this AI bubble bursts. The …
Property valuations improved in Q2 as the 10-year gilt yield edged down and property yields saw little movement. Given our expectation that the 10-year gilt yield will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2026, we doubt a significant yield correction and fall in …
We expect AI firms to drive office demand in key tech hubs as they expand and compete for top talent, although this exposure heightens the downside risk for the least diversified tech markets if we are right that the bubble will eventually burst. When …
There is little sign of AI effects supporting activity or productivity in Canada yet, although the evidence of accelerating ICT investment and increasing AI adoption more broadly bodes well for the outlook. When thinking about the effects of AI on the …
The slow summer rebuild of natural gas storage in the EU means that the price of the TTF benchmark will remain close to current levels over the winter, even if LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz rebound. Moreover, three factors mean that the balance …
Hold, but tightening cycle isn’t over The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to keep its policy on hold at 3.75% is likely to mark a pause in the tightening cycle, not the end of it. Having hiked by 25bp at the last meeting in June, the hold today …
The fall in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June suggests there was a lot of disinflation in the system before the start of the Iran war. And the continued weakness in the labour market supports our view that conditions are not …
Saudi’s Red Sea relief The past week has brought further evidence that the Saudi economy proved relatively resilient to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In last Thursday’s Weekly , we discussed the Q2 GDP figures and how the economy didn’t fare as …
Q2 sales solid, despite June decline Even though retail sales declined in June, they rose by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter, indicating that higher energy prices didn’t have much of an effect on household consumption. With consumer confidence rebounding …
Construction PMI rebounds in July, but outlook remains shrouded in uncertainty There was a sharp rebound in the construction PMI in July, with the headline measure bouncing back to 44.7, not far off its average level in the first three months of the year …
The yen had weakened to a 40-year low against the dollar before FX intervention prompted a rebound last week, while the 10-year JGB yield is close to multi-year highs. This Update answers key client questions on the drivers of those moves and where we …
Strong signal that the easing cycle is near an end Brazil’s central bank (BCB) lowered interest rates by another 25bp today, to 14.00%, but the communications provided a fairly hawkish message on inflation and a signal that the door for further easing is …
5th August 2026
Oil and natural gas markets remain sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. If a deal is reached, we wouldn’t expect energy prices to collapse immediately as it will likely take some time for tanker traffic and, in turn, oil output to …
Once upon a time, the relative performance of two baskets of ‘pure’ cyclical and defensive sectors in the S&P 500 closely tracked a GDP-weighted index of headline readings from the ISM manufacturing and services surveys. In recent years, though, the …
The major economic challenge facing Abelardo de la Espriella when he assumes Colombia’s presidency on Friday will be stabilising the public finances after years of fiscal largesse under outgoing President Gustavo Petro. While a fragmented congress will …
Resumed Iran conflict impacting prices but not activity The slight rise in the headline ISM Services Index in July leaves our weighted composite ISM index at a level consistent with third-quarter GDP growth of around 2% annualised. While a little …
Romania’s economy has been in recession since the second half of last year and is likely to stagnate over the rest of this year as past fiscal tightening and the squeeze on households’ real incomes continue to weigh on activity. The risks to our GDP …
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2026) …
The whole economy PMIs for July show that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors from the Iran war is taking hold – although the sustainability of this hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening before long. Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s economy is still …
With reports suggesting that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz again is “imminent”, this Update revisits analysis from June and outlines five key factors to watch over the coming weeks and months. 1) Tanker traffic through Hormuz and the wider Middle …
While carry trade positioning appears to have increased over the past couple of years, we doubt the recent yen intervention alone will trigger a carry trade unwind and a rapid yen appreciation along the lines of what occurred in the summer of 2024 unless …
While PM Takaichi intends to abandon “excessive austerity” and is trying to steer the BoJ in a more dovish direction, we don’t believe that her policies pose a major risk for Japan’s economic outlook. In particular, we expect the budget deficit to remain …
An AI earnings bust need not be synonymous with a macroeconomic bust. Some scenarios – such as falling AI prices or higher input costs – would mainly redistribute income between AI producers and users, creating winners as well as losers. Only weaker AI …
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today as it continues to monitor “the uncertainties of the West Asia conflict”. But we still think that rising inflation will leave the central bank with little choice but to tighten …
Growth slows, but questions over the data remain Indonesia’s economy expanded by 5.3% y/y in the second quarter, according to official figures released today. That was a slowdown from 5.6% in Q1 but stronger than the consensus forecast of 5.1%. We have …
RBI keeps rates on hold, but hikes likely soon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today as it continues to monitor “the uncertainties of the West Asia conflict”. But we still think that rising inflation will leave the …
Strong wage growth adds to case for September rate hike Wage growth remained strong in June, which supports our view that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy again as soon as next month. The 3.4% annual rise in labour cash earnings in June marked a …
Jump in unemployment rate will give RBNZ pause With spare capacity in the labour market still rising, the RBNZ won’t be in a rush to hike rates again. The 0.5% q/q rise in employment in Q2 was stronger than most had anticipated. (LSEG Consensus: +0.2%, …
We think the US dollar’s recent setbacks will prove temporary. But that view relies on continued US economic and equity market exceptionalism outweighing renewed uncertainty around the Fed and US economic policy more broadly. Between a run of mostly …
4th August 2026
Net trade still a big drag on Q2 GDP The slight narrowing of the trade deficit in June reflected a fall in imports of AI goods which helped to offset the big fall in energy exports. Nonetheless, with exports falling by more than the BEA assumed in its …
Gold exports offset drop in energy values to keep surplus rising The continued rise in the trade surplus was largely attributable to a jump in gold exports, although there were still genuine pockets of strength in the external sector. This offset a drop …
RBA will leave rates unchanged for some time to come Bank will judge that below-trend growth is needed to bring down inflation Conditions for a cut will be met late next year, but we expect a shallow easing cycle We expect the RBA to leave rates on hold …
RBA unlikely to hike again With headwinds to private consumption still looming, we doubt that the moderate pickup in household spending last quarter will move the needle for the RBA. Our base case remains that the Bank is done tightening policy. The ABS’ …
US commercial real estate values have moved largely sideways since the start of 2025, making this one of the weakest recoveries of the modern era. What could drive a stronger rebound, and where are the best opportunities for investors in the current …
3rd August 2026
