Underlying activity strengthening The slowdown in GDP growth to 1.5% annualised in the second quarter will not sway the Fed’s view that the economy is “expanding at solid pace”, given that final sales to private domestic purchasers rose by an impressive …
30th July 2026
The larger-than-expected 1.5% q/q expansion in Mexico’s GDP partly reflected a recovery after Q1’s fall, and it won’t change the outcome of next week’s central bank meeting (a hold at 6.50% is all but certain). But the data does suggest that the …
Would economic pain make Tehran talk? US-Iran attacks have resumed in the last few days, although it’s unclear how far the situation will escalate. Indeed, there had been a growing consensus in US policy circles that the strikes earlier this month hadn’t …
The Southern metros are set to dominate the fastest-growing markets in terms of occupancy and rent growth (see Chart 1,) with Miami, Dallas and Houston the top three markets in our rankings of NOI growth over 2026-30. Those same three markets will also …
The recent pick-up in industrial profit growth is not a sign that excess capacity in China’s manufacturing sector is being meaningfully resolved. Strong profit growth is concentrated in a few sectors and has been driven by global shocks, rather than a …
How are economic and financial risks evolving across emerging markets as the US and Iran struggle to find an offramp and energy prices remain volatile? Where are the biggest vulnerabilities in currencies, banking systems and sovereign debt markets, and …
For more detailed analysis, see here . BoE doesn’t seem to be moving closer to actually raising rates Even though the Bank of England continued to talk up the possibility of interest rate hikes while leaving rates at 3.75% today, we think rates are more …
Oil prices have fallen back on net this week even though shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill, which has prompted questions about the disconnect between paper and physical oil markets. The state of the physical market is still …
Euro-zone proving resilient to Iran war The continued steady growth of the euro-zone economy in Q2 shows that households and businesses have not pared back their spending much due to the Iran war. We think the economy will continue growing at a moderate …
If the AI-fuelled equity bubble is in the process of bursting, we think the UK stock market will hold up better than most of its peers, unlike after the dotcom crash. The UK stock market has been one of the more resilient stock markets of late. While it …
Leadership pushes for faster fiscal spending amid wider policy continuity The Politburo has just concluded its July meeting which, as usual, focused on economic affairs. The tone was less upbeat than the April meeting, presumably reflecting the …
Euro-zone proving resilient to Iran war National data released so far suggest that activity in the euro-zone held up quite well in the second quarter, with GDP in the euro-zone excluding Ireland probably rising by 0.2% q/q . We suspect it will continue to …
Softer-than-expected recoveries may make central banks less cautious The relatively weak 0.4% q/q GDP growth recorded in both Hungary and Czechia in Q2 suggests that both economies weren’t as resilient to the effects of the energy shock as we had …
Damage not as bad as feared, but still severe The 4.8% y/y contraction in Saudi GDP for Q2 (down from growth of 3.0% y/y in Q1) was not as bad as we feared but nevertheless confirms that the Iran war has inflicted heavy damage on the Saudi economy. On a …
The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth Hammack highlight growing support within the FOMC for tighter …
29th July 2026
Fed holds, but support for near-term tightening is growing The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth …
Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 26) …
Much like in 2000, good returns from the average stock have helped the S&P 500 hold steady in recent weeks despite the rout in semiconductor stocks. But, as happened back then, we doubt the average S&P 500 firm will be able to compensate for the fall in …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (July 2026) …
The political shift to the right in Latin America is likely to lead to a stronger geopolitical alignment with the US and economic policies that reduce country risk premia. Economic reforms may allow some economies – Argentina, Bolivia – that had been …
The PM has so far outlined ambitious plans that might cost over £45bn (1.5% of GDP). But market constraints and his commitment not to hike the big three taxes means his ambitions will soon collide with the fiscal reality. This will limit the size of any …
The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will set back the nascent recoveries in the Gulf economies. And the downside risks to our forecast for a ~6% contraction in GDP in the region this year appear to be …
While a new Help to Buy scheme would stimulate homebuilding in the near term, it’s not a sustainable solution to low housing supply. The government would be better off easing some of the structural constraints on supply, but that would take many years. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Bumper mortgage lending is not a sign that housing is back on its feet June’s money and lending figures show that the near-term outlook for the housing market remains weak, …
Big drop in net lending in June Net lending to commercial property totalled just £47mn in June, the lowest outturn since March 2024. That was consistent with the slowdown in investment activity in Q2 on the back of uncertainty caused by the Iran war. …
Softer-than-expected inflation print will keep RBA in wait-and-see mode With underlying inflation surprising to the downside in Q2, the RBA is unlikely to feel an urgency to hike rates in the near term. The 0.6% q/q rise in consumer prices last quarter …
The share prices of some of the global tech giants at the heart of the AI revolution have come under pressure amid a variety of concerns, raising the question of whether the wheels are falling off the AI stock market train. One recent worry seems to be …
28th July 2026
The immigration crackdown has not generated widespread labour shortages, even in those sectors most exposed. Nonetheless, if we are right to expect stronger labour demand in the coming quarters, then a renewed tightening in labour market conditions should …
Asia Chart Pack (July 2026) …
Brazil has been in the crosshairs in the US’s latest tariff salvo, which will lead to a renewed drop in exports to the US over the coming months. But the impact on GDP growth and inflation should remain modest and we’re not changing our macro forecasts. …
The ongoing AI boom has not translated into stronger currencies in Korea and Taiwan, despite surging semiconductor exports and, notwithstanding the recent selloff, major rallies in their equity markets. We think both currencies could, somewhat …
May’s pickup in momentum will be short-lived Although house prices regained some momentum in May the recent rebound in mortgage rates to around 6.8% will further weigh on affordability, suggesting this won’t be sustained. The 0.15% m/m rise in the …
Falling inflation keeps door open for another rate cut The drop in mid-month inflation in Brazil in July, to 4.5% y/y, is likely to provide scope for the central bank to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut at next week’s meeting, taking the Selic rate …
The region’s performance in Q2 was a mixed bag but lower commodity prices, tighter fiscal policy and softening labour markets will cause growth to come in below consensus expectations over the next couple of years. Inflation rose in most countries last …
Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia …
We expect the RBI to hike the repo rate by 25bps to 5.50% next week Rupee concerns are a factor, but key reason to tighten is rising inflation We think the repo rate will rise to 6.00% by early 2027 In contrast to the majority of analysts who are …
Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in June and held steady over Q2. While weak domestic goods demand has dented industry, that has been offset by stronger services sector growth. The CAP is our attempt to track the pace of growth in …
27th July 2026
Q2’s total return of 1.3% was dominated by the income component, with cap rates and capital values broadly steady. Meanwhile, aside from senior housing, where quarterly returns hit 3.9% in Q2, sector performance saw little divergence, consistent with our …
The Iran war has presented central banks with a familiar problem. Higher oil prices amount to a classic stagflationary supply shock: they push inflation up while weighing on growth, particularly in energy-importing economies. There is no obvious monetary …
Government bond yields have dropped back today after last week’s surge, as oil prices have retreated again amid signs of easing tension in the Middle East. Equities have welcomed the respite, too. Although financial markets will inevitably be buffeted …
Singapore today unexpectedly tightened monetary policy, but the communications from the central bank suggest that further tightening is unlikely in the near term. Although growth should remain strong, inflation is unlikely to emerge as a major policy …
Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo has unexpectedly resigned, nearly two years before the end of his second term. The government said that he stepped down for personal reasons, with Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti appointed as acting governor …
Debt restructuring is sapping fiscal impulse Fiscal spending weakened in June, declining by 12% y/y across the general and funds budgets, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) this week. That is the sharpest decline since 2023, and …
24th July 2026
”Tariff man” returns The Supreme Court’s February decision to strike down the “reciprocal tariffs” imposed under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) prompted a scramble within the administration to rebuild the partially knocked-down …
“Team Canada” beginning to disband? Days after threatening trade action over (checks notes) wildfire smoke, the Trump administration this week announced 50% tariffs on a broad range of goods imported from Canada. Notably absent from the list of affected …
Oil prices have jumped this week amid escalating Iran-US attacks and the Houthi threat to close the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. We discussed the implications for global energy markets and for the global economy earlier this week, here . The rise in energy …
Mexico: Growth rebound in Q2 Next week is likely to bring some good economic news for Mexico. After a 0.6% q/q contraction in Q1, GDP data due on Thursday are likely to show that the economy rebounded in Q2. Admittedly, data out this week showed that the …
Recent policies won’t have major impact None of the policies announced by PM Burnham in the past few days are likely to have a major impact on overall GDP growth. The reductions in VAT, bus fares and business rates are intended to ease cost pressures for …
ECB monitoring indirect and second-round effects We pointed out last week that the “indirect effects” of higher energy prices on inflation – i.e. firms passing on increases in their energy bills by raising prices – have so far been absent. (See here .) …
