The idea of joint European debt issuance made a comeback ahead of this week’s EU leaders meeting on competitiveness. It was not surprising that French President Macron, a long-standing advocate, suggested it should be used to finance investment in …
13th February 2026
Data released this morning confirm that euro-zone productivity growth remained sluggish last year. While productivity is already benefitting from AI in the US, we expect it to stay slow in the euro-zone. Together, the euro-zone Q4 GDP and employment data …
A rare dovish surprise from the CBR The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 15.50%, came as a dovish surprise to us and most other analysts. Nonetheless, we maintain our forecast for the policy rate to end …
Could an election be a turning point for peace? Reports this week suggest that Ukraine has started to plan for presidential elections and a referendum on a future peace deal with Russia, possibly within the coming months. While President Zelensky has …
Singapore budget – getting ready for AI Singapore’s budget, announced on Thursday, points to a modest loosening of fiscal policy in the fiscal year starting in April, with the surplus projected to narrow to 1.0% of GDP from 1.9% this year. Spending is …
Credit growth slides further as bank lending weakens Credit growth slipped further in January despite some renewed support from faster government borrowing. It will probably slow over the coming months, posing a downside threat to economic activity and …
Revisions lower political and economic risks The fact sheet for the India-US trade deal was published at the start of this week, but by Wednesday it had been quietly revised. Two key changes stand out and improve the deal’s economic viability and …
Zero inflation and negative rates likely in 2026 Swiss inflation remained at 0.1% in January and we expect it to undershoot the consensus forecast and stay around zero for the rest of the year. Combined with the strength of the franc, we think this will …
Case for further policy tightening remains intact At a fireside chat with the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, RBA Deputy Governor Hauser shed some more light on why the Bank did an about turn on rates at its meeting last week. In short, three …
Yen seems to have finally turned the corner Prime Minister Takaichi’s LDP secured the largest number of seats for an individual party in Sunday’s Lower House election in Japan’s post-war history. But despite the widespread view that a stronger mandate …
The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market remains very tight. While energy subsidies and falling crude oil prices will weigh on headline inflation, measures of underlying inflation should hold up well. …
12th February 2026
After a broad ‑ based rally in Emerging Markets (EM) assets since the beginning of last year, we think that the scope for outsized returns is now limited to only a few corners of the market. We expect tech ‑ heavy equity markets in Asia to benefit from …
Egypt’s reshuffle shouldn’t put reforms at risk The news of a cabinet reshuffle in Egypt was not too much of a surprise and, crucially, the turnover was limited and many of the officials at the heart of the country’s policy shift remain in place. Egypt’s …
Easing cycle has a lot further to run The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by 100bp, to 19.00%, and sounded more confident that inflation will be brought back to target later this year. This reinforces our view that policymakers …
China’s goods trade surplus can’t increase indefinitely. But there’s little sign that policy shifts – either within China or in its trading partners – will prevent the surplus from widening in the next few years. That will continue to create geopolitical …
Sales drop to prove a blip The drop in existing home sales to a two-year low in January should prove temporary as the recent decline in borrowing costs feeds into greater homebuyer demand, notwithstanding some potential near-term disruption from the …
The growing use of leverage and futures trading to gain exposure to gold in China suggests that the recent increase in Chinese gold demand is more consistent with a speculative bubble inflating rather than a flight to safety. As a result, this will …
We doubt that India’s revamped consumer price data will change the near-term monetary policy outlook. The real benefit lies further ahead; the new series does a better job of capturing economic realities, and a less volatile headline inflation rate due …
We expect GDP growth to be little more than 1% this year as household spending and investment remain subdued amid the immigration crackdown and start of CUSMA renegotiation. Despite soft employment gains, weak labour force growth means the unemployment …
The data for euro-zone retail rents have been notably weaker since mid-2025. Given this and the fragile economic backdrop, we think that any retail recovery over the next year or more will now be slower, thanks largely to persistent softness in French and …
There are positive signs for earnings outside of the “tech” sectors of the US stock market, which might help them continue to fare well. But we still think tech will do better over the rest of 2026. Amidst the recent drama in the tech parts of the US …
Soft print paves the way for rate cut this month The larger-than-expected fall in Hungarian inflation, to 2.1% y/y, in January, is likely to prompt the central bank to resume its monetary easing cycle when it meets later this month. We are now pencilling …
We’re hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Tuesday 24 th February to discuss whether the UK economy can weather more fiscal and political changes. Click here to request a space. This page has been updated with additional …
Green shoots of recovery The green shoots of recovery indicated by January’s RICS housing market survey support other evidence that suggests the economy strengthened at the start of the year. And it lends some tentative support to our view that house …
The blockbuster US non-farm payrolls report released earlier today strengthens the case for higher US Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar over the coming months. While Treasury yields and the dollar jumped, by about 5bp and 0.5% respectively, …
11th February 2026
Our latest Emerging Markets Chart Pack is embedded below: EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth …
Keir Starmer appears to have fended off the latest challenge to his leadership, but his premiership hangs by a thread. This Update examines what previous political episodes can tell us about what his ousting would mean for Gilts and the pound. While Gilt …
Property valuations saw a further small improvement in Q4 as alternative asset yields edged back. Looking ahead, steady property yields and a further decline in the 10-year gilt yield will help nudge property toward being fairly …
The 172,000 surge in private payrolls in January owed a lot to a 124,000 surge in health care & social assistance, but private sector hiring elsewhere still appears to be strengthening. Indeed, the decline in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, despite a …
Historically, stock market declines have coincided with a wide range of economic outcomes, but in adverse cases the causality almost always runs from the economy to markets rather than the reverse. Currently, the economy and financial system seem …
Poland’s economy is currently exhibiting features considered characteristic of a “Goldilocks economy” – solid GDP growth, inflation close to target, as well as a current account near balance. And we think the economy will continue to post strong growth …
Which parts of the housing market will outperform, and which will lag, in 2026? In a weak commercial property recovery, where can investors find outperformance? Which sectors of the real estate market are the most vulnerable and the most immune to AI? Our …
The RBNZ will leave rates on hold at 2.25% at its meeting on 18 th February. With the latest data suggesting that the balance of risks to the economic outlook has shifted somewhat to the upside, we’re bringing forward our forecast for the Bank’s first …
Gold price rally continues to distort the inflation picture Consumer price inflation eased due to a later Lunar New Year. But it is likely to bounce back in February. And producer price inflation, which is less seasonal, improved. The recent uptrend on …
The large cost gap between buying and renting today underpins our upbeat national apartment demand forecast. Applying the same logic at the city level, demand in Midwestern and New York State metros should outperform, where owner-occupier affordability is …
10th February 2026
Today’s slump in government bonds in Norway isn’t likely to set the tone for the rest of Europe. Last Tuesday, we argued that a rout in bonds in Australia , tied to the RBA becoming the first major central bank to unwind some of its prior monetary easing, …
CBK dispenses with another 25bp cut The Central Bank of Kenya lowered its policy rate by another 25bp, to 8.75%, today and while the accompanying statement suggests to us more cuts are coming, a fresh flare up of fiscal concerns and balance of payments …
The first official US jobs report of 2026 will be a significant one, with the delayed release set to reflect major revisions to last year’s payroll estimates, alongside other critical adjustments to the methodology used to assess labour market conditions. …
Retail sales report hints at consumer fragility ahead of bigger rebate cheques The weaker-than-expected retail sales data for December won’t be enough to spoil the fourth quarter, with our estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth still at 3.8% annualised. …
Inflation ticks up, but Copom still set to kick off easing cycle in March The small pick-up in Brazilian inflation to 4.4% y/y in January was driven entirely by higher housing inflation and masks a sharp easing in underlying price pressures. This will …
The Q4 RICS survey pointed to a largely stable euro-zone commercial property market at the end of last year. However, there were marked differences between prime and secondary assets as well as within the bloc, with occupier and investment conditions …
If oil prices fall back as we expect, Saudi Arabia’s government is likely to run large budget deficits and see a sharper rise in the public debt ratio than is widely anticipated. The strength of the Saudi government’s balance sheet means that it has a …
Inflation back near four-year lows, paving the way for a rate cut on Thursday The fall in Egypt’s headline inflation rate from 12.3% y/y in December to 11.9% y/y in January, its weakest pace since September and second weakest since Q1 2022, means that …
Capital Economics, a leading independent provider of macroeconomic analysis and data, today announced that its award winning analysis and insight is now available across FactSet workflow solutions globally. Jonathan Cooper, Chief Growth Officer at Capital …
6th February 2026
We think the tech-led rally in the S&P 500 will resume, and that 2026 will be a good year for the index despite its rocky start and the many threats facing it. This Equities Focus explains why. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was slightly higher …
The Q4 RICS Commercial Property Survey showed sentiment for Asia-Pacific stayed on an uptrend, though it hasn’t yet turned positive. Mainland China remained a significant drag on the region, while Japan and Australia continued to roar ahead. The headline …
