Brazil now faces the highest non-reciprocal US tariff rates in the world – a stark sign of the breakdown in US-Brazil relations. And these tariffs come as Brazil’s balance of payments weakens, as its growth slows and as attention begins to shift to next …
15th September 2025
Our proprietary China Activity Proxy shows growth running well below the official figures. Will this weakness persist into 2026 in the face of Trump tariffs and structural headwinds, or can government efforts to boost consumption and rein in overcapacity …
1st October 2025
Japan’s search for a new prime minister has upended its political landscape – and the outcome will shape the country’s economic and market outlook. Our Japan and Markets economists hosted a special online briefing all about Japan’s leadership upheaval and …
13th October 2025
We expect Wednesday’s release to show that UK CPI rose above 4% in September – more than double the Bank of England’s target and a clear signal to markets and the government that inflation remains uncomfortably high. Even so, we think this could mark the …
20th October 2025
US household exposure to equities is at levels not seen in at least 75 years. This extraordinary shift has been driven in part by a pensions industry which has seen a structural loss of appetite for bonds and corresponding rise in demand for equities. …
23rd September 2025
Global property markets have been recovering through the first half of 2025, with tariffs and other uncertainties showing only limited impact so far. But the recovery remains slow: REITs continue to trade at sizeable discounts to NAV, closed-end fund …
9th September 2025
Is the latest flare-up in US–China relations simply brinkmanship ahead of a planned Trump–Xi meeting later this month, or a sign of structural tensions that point to a re-escalation of the trade war? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing led briefings with …
Nigeria’s economy appears to be responding to President Bola Tinubu’s reforms, with growth accelerating to a four-year high. But how much has the outlook really improved – and what more is needed to put the country on a sustainable growth path? With …
16th October 2025
Mixed signals from recent data have complicated the RBA’s job. Although the recovery appears to be on firm footing, the labour market has cooled considerably, with unemployment hitting a four-year high. Against this backdrop, the Q3 CPI report is likely …
21st October 2025
Argentines head to the polls on 26 October for mid-term elections that could make or break President Javier Milei’s ambitious effort to remake the economy. His coalition’s loss in a provincial election in September was the first major setback to his …
8th October 2025
The Reserve Bank of Australia has consistently advocated a cautious approach to policy easing. But with economic momentum fading and the labour market showing signs of softening, the case for unwinding its restrictive monetary stance is growing. In that …
22nd July 2025
Four months after the arrest of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu reignited political risk in Turkey, market conditions have stabilised. The lira has firmed, capital is flowing back in, and reserves are rebuilding. But is the macro adjustment on solid …
11th July 2025
India is facing fresh tensions with the Trump administration. The president is threatening steep tariffs in response to India’s continued oil trade with Russia – even as he’s reportedly preparing to hold direct talks with Vladimir Putin. How this all …
29th July 2025
François Bayrou has survived eight no-confidence votes since becoming France’s Prime Minister late last year. But this Monday’s confidence vote – called by Bayrou himself – could yet bring down his government. With France’s strained public finances at the …
2nd September 2025
The sacking of Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati marks the latest twist in a crisis that has been engulfing what until recently was one of Asia’s standout growth stories. Our economists hosted a special online briefing to answer client …
8th September 2025
Our senior economists from our US, Europe and UK teams hosted this online briefing to dive into the latest decisions and comms from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, and to answer client questions. … Central Bank Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank …
13th August 2025
The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu adds fresh uncertainty to France’s economic and market outlook. What can President Macron do to break the political deadlock over the public finances? Should investors brace for new elections? And how …
6th October 2025
19th August 2025
Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook explains why we remain far above consensus on the S&P 500 in 2026 – and why other tech-heavy equity markets may not be far behind. Economists from our Markets team hosted an online briefing to unpack the case for …
7th October 2025
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is coming. Set to begin in 2026, it will require EU importers to pay for the carbon emitted in the production of goods they bring into the bloc – effectively extending the ‘polluter pays’ principle to …
President Donald Trump has turned his attention back to trade policy in recent days, threatening to resurrect higher reciprocal tariffs on many countries in another few weeks. He has also indicated that product-specific tariffs on copper, pharmaceuticals …
The further fall in GDP in May provided yet another excuse to talk down the UK economy. But there is some evidence that we are past the worst and the situation will improve from here (or, at the least, become less bad). Coming after the 0.3% m/m fall in …
Strong across the board The strong 83,100 rise in employment and the dip in the unemployment rate in June suggests the labour market is in better shape than we had feared, despite ongoing uncertainty around Canada’s trade relationship with the US. While …
Oil demand will struggle to keep up with OPEC+ The week started with oil traders digesting the news that OPEC+ decided to lift output by 548k bpd in August, putting the group on track to unwind it’s 2.2mn bpd of output cuts by September, one year earlier …
Supply-side approach has its limits Policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned about overcapacity and deflation, and are signalling a stronger intent to tackle the issue. On Wednesday, the People’s Daily ran a front-page commentary criticising the …
Tariffs stormed back into the headlines this week as the pause on ‘Liberation Day’ levies expired with a flurry of warnings about steep rate hikes unless deals are struck by 1st August. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks the implications, while …
The media focus this week has continued to be on EU-US trade negotiations as the pause on Liberation Day tariffs was extended beyond the 9 th of July deadline and President Trump threatened to send a letter raising tariffs on the EU again. But in the …
We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak economic backdrop in Mexico and the risk of renewed …
Sharp fall in June inflation could spur rate cut talk The major data release next week will be the consumer price inflation data for June – the last set of inflation numbers before the RBI’s next policy announcement on Wednesday 6 th August. We think the …
A damp squib Liberation Day 2.0 was largely shrugged off by investors, with most equity markets in Asia rising over the course of the week. This could be because tariff deadlines were extended by three weeks, giving countries more time to agree deals …
We think concerns about government deficits could put further pressure on long-dated bonds. Tests of investors’ nerves have come thick and fast lately, with the latest being a hike in tariffs in Canada. But, despite some small wobbles, the big picture is …
Deadline for trade deal extended to 1 st August The looming deadline for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs earlier this week proved to be a damp squib as Trump has now given Japan and a range of other countries until 1 st August to negotiate a deal. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Hangover continues, but signs of a recovery building The hangover from the burst of activity in Q1 ahead of rises in US tariffs and UK stamp charges continued in May with GDP …
Rates will bottom out in mid-2026 The RBA’s decision to leave its cash rate unchanged at its meeting this Tuesday shocked not only financial markets, which had fully priced in a 25bp cut, but also the overwhelming majority of economists. Setting aside the …
Egypt’s IMF delay reinforces need for reform The IMF has postponed the latest review of Egypt’s $8bn deal but, with external strains still present, officials appear keen to get privatisation and education reforms on track to unlock financing. A statement …
10th July 2025
Overview – Activity in the housing market has been struck in a slump since 2023, with still no end in sight. As Trump’s immigration and trade policies push up inflation this year, the Fed will be forced to keep policy restrictive – preventing mortgage …
Donald Trump’s planned imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazil for seemingly political reasons may represent a new milestone, but Brazil simply isn’t a big enough trading partner of the US to rattle global markets. For that to happen, negotiations with …
The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing inflation back to single digits and reining in the current …
Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and Central Europe than in Asia, but we’ve become less …
Auto exporters in China have adapted to the EU’s tariffs on EVs by lowering export prices and focusing on vehicles that are not subject to tariffs. Even if trade restrictions were to remain in place, the extent of China’s cost advantage means that …
Tightening cycle probably over, but currency now the key risk There’s little in the Brazilian June CPI print that changes our view that last month’s hike marked the end to Copom’s tightening cycle. But a lot will now depend on how the trade dispute with …
Poor performance in the US and APAC property markets is set to drag on the global recovery over the next few years. While strong economic fundamentals argue for a material improvement in total returns in the US in the longer term, APAC won’t be as …
Markets have brushed off Trump’s latest tariff threats. Geopolitical worries have faded – for now. And the AI trade is powering back. But beneath the surface, risks remain. Are investors reading the macro signals too optimistically? Our Markets …
There are risks to the Irish economy from potential US tax policy changes but we think they are not as large as they first appear. The country’s large pharmaceutical sector should be fairly resilient if hit with US tariffs. And the government’s fiscal …
President Trump’s threat to put a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil is less about trade disputes and more about political and policy disagreements, and so it’s harder to see an off-ramp for Brazil compared with other countries that received tariff …
We think office values have further to fall in all metros this year, but from 2026 we are expecting a recovery, with the southern markets showing the way. Led by Miami, those metros will see strong rent growth on the back of a decent recovery in …
The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today (at 2.50%), but gave strong hints that the easing cycle still had further to run. With growth set to struggle and inflation contained, we are expecting a further 50bps of cuts before the …
Big rebound in demand, but housing market unlikely to recovery quickly While June’s RICS survey suggests most of the recent weakness in the housing market was due to the temporary influence of the change in stamp duty, it doesn’t yet point to a marked …
The Bank of Korea rarely cuts interest rates at back-to-back meetings, and the decision to leave interest rates on hold today at 2.50% comes as no surprise. The announcement was correctly predicted by all 33 analysts polled by LSEG, including ourselves. …
