US military strikes in northern Nigeria a few weeks ago refocussed attention on the country’s security challenges. Violence remains high nationwide and, while security is improving modestly in the south, it is worsening in the north. The fiscal burden of …
22nd January 2026
Frictions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have broken out into the open in the last few weeks. But even if the situation were to escalate, the near-term economic impact would probably be limited. If anything, the larger repercussions could be in the oil …
Since December, investors’ year-end interest rate expectations have moved towards our own end-2026 policy rate forecasts for all major advanced economies. We think there is a bit further to go before markets fully reflect the rate outlook, which is being …
Latest US tariff threats not influencing Norway’s monetary policy Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and the Bank’s messaging repeated that policymakers are in no hurry to lower rates further. We are forecasting a cut in …
Although our base case is that the recovery in US markets will broadly continue, risk premia remain narrow and the chance of a larger repricing is probably high. Signs of a rapprochement over Greenland seem to have put markets back in a good mood . US …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Some good news at last, but pace of deficit reduction slow The public finances are finally showing signs of improvement in recent months. But the pace of deficit reduction …
BNM set for prolonged hold Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left its policy rate unchanged at 2.75% and signalled that it is in no hurry to adjust interest rates again. With growth set to remain firm and inflation contained, we expect rates to be left …
Economy to return to growth in Q1, but difficult year ahead Korea’s GDP contracted in the final quarter of 2025. While we expect the economy to return to growth this quarter, 2026 is likely to be a difficult year as weak domestic demand continues to weigh …
Sharp drop in unemployment clears path for RBA hike Given the renewed tightening in the labour market in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to pull the trigger on a rate hike at its meeting next month. The 65,000 rise in employment …
Although further weakness in JGBs might have implications for financial markets outside Japan, we doubt the global fallout would be large for four reasons. Japan’s net international assets are larger than those of any other country, owing to the …
21st January 2026
US-Europe tensions over Greenland, and renewed US policy uncertainty more broadly, has led to speculation of a return of the “sell America” narrative that dominated financial markets in the first half of 2025. While the Trump administration’s …
Soft inflation data should have eased hawks’ concerns But strong GDP growth and stabilisation in unemployment suggest no rush to cut Annual vote rotation among regional presidents a slightly dovish shift The data released since the FOMC’s December meeting …
Concerns about the direction of policymaking in Indonesia have intensified since President Prabowo took office in late-2024. Markets are signaling anxiety over creaking fiscal discipline and the potential erosion of central bank independence following the …
We see recent strength in AI-related business investment as the start of a multi-year capex boom, driving GDP growth of 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027. Despite the economy running hot and labour market remaining tight, we expect downward progress in core …
The fortunes of Dublin’s logistics markets are improving after a post-pandemic hangover. Sentiment is currently strong, while a solid economic outlook and tight supply provide reasons to be optimistic about rental growth going forward, as long as the …
The Alternative für Deutschland’s continued rise in the polls has been accompanied by renewed calls for mainstream German parties to abandon their “firewall” policy. But as long as the AfD clings on to some of its most extreme views and members it is …
The latest batch of activity data from South Africa were soft but still pointed to the economy ending 2025 on a solid footing. Easing supply conditions, looser monetary policy and improved terms of trade will all help to push GDP growth above 2% this …
Vulnerabilities in Egypt’s banking sector look high by EM standards, but there are signs that these risks should ease and the banking sector has large capital buffers. Perhaps the bigger issue is that bank lending to the government is crowing out credit …
Given comparatively weak economic conditions, it might seem surprising that services inflation has been stickier in Europe than in the US in recent months. But much of this reflects the delayed response of wage growth to labour market normalisation in …
Our Japan economists were online the day after the election to analyse the results, explore what they mean for Japan’s fiscal and monetary balance, and discuss the implications for Japanese financial …
What will a Fed under political fire signal at its first policy meeting of 2026? And what will February’s decisions reveal about our convictions that the ECB will pivot to rate cuts in 2026, and that the Bank of England will ease more aggressively than …
After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to ease in 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. However, India will remain a relative bright spot in the global economy, thanks to strong domestic demand. Inflation has bottomed out but a …
Inflation uptick to prompt a pause in the easing cycle The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation to 3.6% y/y in December, with core inflation picking up too, suggests that the Reserve Bank will pause its easing cycle later this month. Further out, …
BI stays on the sidelines as rupiah slides Recent falls in the rupiah prompted Bank Indonesia to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting today. The decision will ease fears, for now at least, that BI is …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Rebound not much to worry about, but BoE unlikely to cut rates in February The rebound in CPI inflation from 3.2% in November to 3.4% in December (CE and BoE 3.5%, consensus …
Should JGB yields continue to surge, PM Takaichi may be forced to offset some of the expansionary fiscal measures announced recently with tightening elsewhere. However, those moves may not be seen as credible by investors and the Bank of Japan may …
Korea’s logistics looks to be turning a corner, with net absorption comfortably outpacing new supply in 2025 and over the next few years. That will underpin rent growth averaging 2.5% p.a. over the next five years, driving a solid recovery in capital …
The Republicans are likely to lose their majority in the House of Representatives in this November’s midterm elections, but that won’t slow down the President, with Donald Trump continuing to pursue most of his immigration, trade and foreign policy agenda …
20th January 2026
We expect continued divergence in both total non-farm and office-sector job growth across the largest metros over the next two years. Those in the South will continue to significantly outperform the national average while some major Western metros will …
The latest triple sell-off in US equities, Treasuries, and the dollar would probably have to become much larger before the ‘guardrails’ of the financial markets prompted Donald Trump to change his plans for Greenland . The US government bond market, in …
President Donald Trump’s first year back in the Oval Office was more disruptive than we had expected, marked by attacks on the global trading order, the domestic institutional framework and even the sovereignty of other nations. As one of the last …
Political risk has emerged as a key theme of 2026. Our analysis of EM political shocks over the last 15 years suggests that the key determinants of the size and persistence of political risk premiums are the type of event and the extent of economic …
A divergence between banks’ expectations for house and commercial real estate prices may explain why they are still keen to ramp up lending to commercial real estate even as the availability of credit to the overall corporate sector has flatlined. In any …
Sluggish growth and target-bound inflation should give central banks room to continue easing monetary policy. But the extent of easing that lies in store this year differs by country – while easing cycles in Mexico and parts of the Andes are nearing an …
The credibility of policymaking in Indonesia has been dealt a fresh blow at the start of 2026. It will take time for the more pernicious effects of populist and interventionist policies under President Prabowo to be felt, but risk premia are likely to …
Coffee prices have fallen back from their record highs, and overall, we think that they will edge lower over the course of the year. That said, several risks could keep coffee prices elevated by historical standards. Not least, the geopolitical tensions …
The latest polls suggest that Viktor Orbán’s long-ruling Fidesz party could lose power in Hungary’s parliamentary election on 12 th April. This Update answers five key questions on the implications of the vote. The short point is that a change of …
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be keen to demonstrate continued fiscal restraint when she delivers her ninth Union Budget on Sunday 1 st February. But the current political backdrop is not very forgiving. The most likely outcome is that some …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Jobs market still weak, but stubborn wage growth will concern the BoE While the labour market remains soft, the stability of overall pay growth in November diminishes the chances …
We hosted an online Drop-In session today to discuss escalating tensions over Greenland and their economic implications. (Recording available here .) This Update provides answers to some of the questions that we received and highlights a range of relevant …
19th January 2026
There were some signs of life in the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, with the pick-up in the indicator of future sales suggesting that the outlook for GDP growth is much better than the recent data would suggest. That said, the further decline …
Another below-target monthly gain in core prices The second-consecutive below-target monthly gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median should further reduce speculation that the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates this year. If anything, coupled with the data …
Rate cuts unlikely until H2 The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and we think that high inflation will continue to prevent interest rate cuts until the …
December’s inflation data add weight to our view that the pick-up in services inflation towards the end of last year was, to coin a phrase, transitory. We expect it to decline in January and trend down throughout 2026, bringing core inflation below 2% …
The Greenland crisis …
The aphorism “where you stand depends on where you sit” is well applied to the global economy. Beyond the value of reconnecting with clients, my trip to the Middle East and Asia last week was a reminder that debates around global macro can be too narrowly …
If implemented and sustained for a long period, the new tariffs that President Trump has threatened over the Greenland dispute could cost the euro-zone economy something between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP, with a bigger hit for Germany. In practice though, we …
We are hosting a 20-minute online briefing to discuss the "Greenland Crisis" at 11am GMT today. (Register here .) If President Trump’s latest tariff threats were actually implemented, they would add to the existing pain for UK car and pharmaceutical …
