While major developed-market currencies have mostly headed in the same direction against the US dollar this year, that’s come to a halt this month. We think fortunes will continue to diverge, to some extent, with the yen faring the best and European …
30th September 2025
China Chart Pack (Sep. 25) …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Upward revisions to GDP won’t save the Chancellor The small upward revisions to real GDP in recent years means that productivity growth wasn’t quite as weak as previously …
While the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting today, its relatively hawkish messaging raises the risk that its easing cycle will be more drawn out than we’re currently expecting. That said, we still believe that the Bank will ultimately cut …
RBA strikes a more hawkish tone as it leaves rates on hold While the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold today was all but a foregone conclusion, the Bank’s more hawkish messaging raises the risk that it won’t cut rates as far and/or as quickly as we’re …
Export strength is supporting growth The PMIs suggest that China’s economy accelerated this month, partly due to resilient exports. But with fiscal easing set to provide less of a prop over the coming months, we are sceptical that economic growth is on …
BoJ will shrug off contraction in Q3 GDP While the August activity data confirm that Japan’s GDP declined this quarter, that follows a strong performance over the past year and we doubt it will prevent the BoJ from resuming its tightening cycle. The 1.2% …
It’s hardly surprising there is renewed talk of a stock market bubble in the US with the S&P 500 back near a record high. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if the index ended this year above our current forecast of 6,750 and made further gains in 2026 as …
29th September 2025
Overview – The economy seems destined for a period of weak growth amid the US tariff shock and much lower immigration. We forecast average annual GDP growth of 1.0% next year, with a further rise in the unemployment rate – against a backdrop of near 2% …
This Focus examines the large financial inflows to the US that have accompanied the country’s persistent current account deficit. It argues that those inflows face several growing threats which risk, among other things, disrupting the performance of some …
Our View: The latest data suggest that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe remained resilient in Q3, while Russia’s economy appears to have slowed further. We expect this divergence to continue over the coming year as CEE economies benefit from a …
We expect recent mortgage rate declines to support stronger lending and sales, prompting us to raise our end-2025 existing home sales forecast to 4.35m annualised, up from 4.15m. However, based on our relatively hawkish Fed view versus the market, we …
Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Contrary to consensus expectations for growth to stabilise, we expect growth in Latin America to slow next year owing to headwinds from …
BoI sticks to hawkish message as it leaves rates on hold The hawkish communications from the Bank of Israel (BoI), as it left its policy rate on hold today, at 4.50%, suggest that expectations for interest rate cuts this year may be disappointed. While we …
It is now widely acknowledged that the public finances of several advanced economies are on perilous ground. We have identified Italy, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom – the so-called “fiscal four” – as countries where the public finances …
Overview – We now expect tariffs to have only a very limited impact on both prices and activity, with the AI investment boom and the immigration crackdown proving to be the bigger economic drivers. With the AI boom set to drive a resurgence in …
Overview – We think that the ECB will change its view that interest rates are “in a good place” next year. Growth looks set to remain slow by international standards, and we suspect that it will be weaker than most forecasters anticipate, particularly in …
Overview – The extension of the ECB easing cycle into 2026 will support real estate markets. However, a softer economic outlook and the narrow spread of property to government bond yields mean even our upwardly revised expectation for euro-zone capital …
ESIs point to resilient CEE growth The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in September, but our regional measure of sentiment rose to a three-month high and points to continued …
Economy remains sluggish, inflation under control September’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission adds to the evidence that euro-zone GDP growth remained subdued in Q3, while inflationary pressures are under control. The small …
Net lending in August hits highest level since May 2020 At £2.5bn in August, net lending to property reached its highest monthly level since May 2020. This built on an already-strong few months in which net lending averaged £2.0bn and took the three-month …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. No evidence prospect of higher taxes is weighing on households’ decisions We’ll be discussing the outlook for UK growth, inflation, interest rates, and financial markets in …
The Tokyo CPI is overstating the pace at which inflation is moderating across Japan and we still believe that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle at its October meeting. Following the release of weaker-than-expected Tokyo CPI figures on …
The share prices of some of the world’s largest health care companies have rallied a bit today, despite Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday of a tariff of 100% on US imports of branded or patented pharmaceutical products from 1 st October. That’s …
26th September 2025
The clock is ticking for Congress to extend the Federal government’s spending authority, which will expire when the next fiscal year begins at 12:01am on October 1 st (next Wednesday), triggering a partial shutdown. It is possible that Congress will reach …
We expect capital values to see another drop in 2026. But led by strong rent growth in Miami, we think southern markets will start to recover before the end of next year. Occupier demand in these metros will be supported by higher rates of office …
Russia’s revised 2025 budget deficit and the draft budget for 2026-28 announced this week suggest that policymakers are committed to fiscal tightening, through tax hikes to raise additional revenues and efforts to limit further military and social …
The US dollar is on track to end the week stronger against most other major currencies thanks largely to investors further paring back their expectations for Fed rate cuts. (See Chart 1.) Although political developments have dominated the headlines this …
Milei gets big backing from the US The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina amidst the recent volatility in the country’s financial markets following the defeat …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2025) …
It’s striking how quickly the political momentum has shifted. In January, the government was still riding high in the polls after its landslide election victory. Fast forward nine months and the Labour Party is deeply divided and is trailing far behind …
The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as two bright spots in North Africa as improved …
AGOA end would be symbolic, macro impact small The African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) is set to expire on Tuesday and, while this would deal only a modest blow, it would mark yet another way in which the US is disengaging from the region, leaving …
Weakest population growth since the pandemic The population grew by just 0.2% in quarterly annualised terms in the second quarter, the slowest rate since the pandemic and far below pre-pandemic norms. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Population (%q/q, annualised) …
The ECB insists interest rates are "in a good place", but it's a view which we think will shift in the coming year. Join our Europe team for a briefing all about how their latest analysis and forecasts for the euro-zone point to the central bank coming …
Technical recession likely avoided, though the economy continues to struggle Although July GDP surprised to the upside, the flash estimate that output was unchanged in August will temper any optimism about the economy quickly gaining momentum. While a …
Consumers doing fine despite softer payrolls The strong 0.4% m/m rise in real consumption in August, coupled with an upward revision to growth in July, is further evidence that economic activity continues to do well despite slower payrolls gains. Together …
Tariffs are back in the headlines after Donald Trump’s latest announcements – but how much of a threat do these new levies really pose? Could they fuel inflation pressures, and is Trump’s trade policy really bringing manufacturing jobs back? Neil Shearing …
Challenges facing US oil to escalate from here Pessimism in the US oil industry increased in the third quarter, as shown by the sharp fall in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey company outlook index. High uncertainty about both US policy and the future path of …
Overview – Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to cut interest rates quicker and deeper than …
The economic impact will be limited China will stop seeking the “special and differential treatment” accorded to developing countries in the World Trade Organisation, Premier Li Qiang told the UN General Assembly this week. Under WTO rules, developing …
Economy sluggish but not due to US tariffs We think that economic growth in the euro-zone will pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no …
RBI likely to loosen policy despite weaker rupee The Indian rupee hit another record low against the US dollar this week and remains among the worst performing emerging market currencies this year. The rupee’s depreciation against the dollar has …
Something for Indonesia to celebrate Indonesia’s announcement of a trade deal with the European Union provided respite this week for a government that has been on the defensive with investors over the direction of policy. But it’s unlikely that this will …
Inflation jitters may be overdone The release of hotter than expected Australian CPI data has put markets in a hawkish mood. They now believe that the RBA will only cut rates to 3.3% this cycle, whereas they were pricing in a terminal rate of 3.1% just …
We are re-sending this updated Rapid Response as the original version was missing some analysis. Exemptions will reduce impact of pharmaceutical tariffs The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1 st , the US will impose 100% tariffs on …
US-bound exports plunge Detailed export data compiled by the Bank of Japan suggest that higher US tariffs have become a clear headwind to Japanese exports. US-bound export volumes were the weakest they’ve been since 2021. (See Chart 1.) That said, overall …
