It may be tempting to conclude that the long-awaited India-EU trade deal announced today will only have a small economic impact. After all, key sectors such as agriculture remain off the table and the EU’s average tariff rate on Indian goods was low …
27th January 2026
Rise in inflation shuts the door on a January rate cut The uptick in inflation in Brazil in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, will probably remove any lingering expectations for an interest rate cut at tomorrow’s Copom meeting. But under the …
What has driven the dollar’s recent sharp fall? Are dedollarisation fears back in charge amid heightened political uncertainty? What support will the US macro narrative lend the currency? Join Deputy Chief Markets Economist hosted this online briefing on …
We expect Korea to record another year of subdued growth in 2026, as relatively strong exports are likely to be offset by soft domestic demand. Trump’s latest threat to impose 25% tariffs poses a downside risk to the outlook, although it remains unclear …
Total returns of 1.1% q/q in Q4 2025 were more-or-less unchanged from the previous quarter and helped returns for 2025 rise to just under 5%. That highlights the modest recovery in commercial real estate, with offices and industrial both underperforming …
26th January 2026
Our view is that most fundamental factors still point to a stronger dollar in 2026. But renewed uncertainty around the Trump administration’s approach to US economic and foreign policy threatens to undermine the prospect of a dollar rebound, at least in …
Costa Rica’s ruling party looks set to hold onto power at the general election on 1 st February. A more fragmented legislature – as seems likely – may make it harder to pass reforms, including measures to tackle rising crime and improve the public debt …
Our View: Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand strengthens and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened). Meanwhile, Russia’s economy will stagnate amid low oil prices as well as war …
Signs of health beneath Boeing-led surge A jump in Boeing orders was the main driver of higher durable goods orders in November, although core (ex. transport) orders still performed decently. Most importantly, another rise in underlying capital goods …
Reports that the Saudi government will significantly scale back its ambitions for Neom are not a surprise as low oil prices bite. Capital expenditure always bears the brunt of Saudi fiscal consolidation plans. The move will weigh on near-term growth, but …
Overview – Despite the recent increase in the supply of homes on the market, we think the combination of looser lending standards, further falls in mortgage rates and decent wage growth will allow housing transactions to climb above their pre-pandemic …
Is the widow-maker out of business? For years, investor bets that yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) would rise from rock-bottom levels were routinely crushed by the Bank of Japan’s determination to keep rates down. The fortunes lost shorting …
Ifo dampens expectations of German recovery The weaker-than-expected German Ifo in January pours some cold water on expectations that the German economy might be finally turning the corner. The fiscal stimulus should still cause growth to pick up a bit …
It looks set to be a fairly quiet Fed meeting this week as far as markets are concerned, and perhaps even a quiet year on the policy front despite the background noise. But there are plenty of other potential shocks waiting in the wings, including the …
Our China Activity Proxy shows that growth slowed at the end of 2025, with the economy expanding at a rate almost 2%-pts below what official figures suggest. And while official figures indicate that an end of year acceleration in services activity helped …
23rd January 2026
China-Africa loans fall but economic ties still deep New data this week showed Chinese lending to Africa fell again in 2024. But while lending is slowing, trade is not. And China’s widening current account surplus needs to be recycled somewhere. With the …
While we still expect that GDP will end the year on a softer note, the latest retail sales data suggest the economy performed a bit better than we thought a week ago, and the latest business surveys hint at better times ahead. This week we received the …
While today’s BoJ meeting was fairly uneventful, with no big impact on Japanese financial markets besides some significant volatility in the yen during Governor Ueda’s press conference, that may not remain the case in the run-up to and after next month’s …
Stable yields over 2025 led to a gradual slowdown in capital value growth to 1.4% y/y by the end of the year. And with yields set to see little movement over the next few years, we expect total returns of just over 7% p.a. over …
Tariff watch gives way to Fed watch We’ll be waiting at least another month now for the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump’s IEEPA-related tariffs. That means we’re on Fed Chair watch next week, to see if Trump finally announces his …
Was this the week that shattered the western alliance? Not so fast, says Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. Despite the strains of a Trump presidency, deep economic dependencies on the US suggest that talk of a new international order is overblown. Neil …
Kast’s pro-business cabinet Chile’s president-elect José Antonio Kast on Tuesday announced a very pro-business – and technocratic – cabinet (16 of the 24 members are not members of Kast’s party). On the economic front, the key appointment was economist …
Black Friday discounts provide a temporary boost to spending The strong rebound in retail sales in November appears to mostly reflect a temporary boost from Black Friday deals rather than a more lasting pickup in consumer demand, given the 0.5% decline …
While US President Trump has rowed back on his threat to take Greenland by force and to impose tariffs on several European countries, a key question is whether the flare-up in tensions will have lasting economic consequences. We think probably not. One …
A perfect storm for US natural gas (pun intended) In a week dominated by President Trump’s pursuit of Greenland, it is perhaps ironic that an anticipated blast of cold air from the Arctic sent the price of natural gas in the US soaring. At the time of …
Vietnam Congress – To Lam in control Vietnam’s 14 th Party Congress concluded today, a day ahead of schedule. As anticipated, To Lam was confirmed to a full five-year term as general secretary. He is widely expected to be confirmed as state president …
It took just four days for President Trump to shift from announcing the threat of further hikes in import tariffs on the UK and seven other European countries if the US didn’t “acquire” Greenland to withdrawing the threat. That meant all our hard work …
One warning sign that a bubble is close to bursting is high and rising gross equity issuance; that was a feature, for example, during the dotcom bubble and the “non-profitable tech” bubble in 2020-21. Issuance during the ongoing AI boom has yet to reach …
Capital outflows set to persist Foreign investors have remained net sellers of Indian equities in the early stages of 2026. Data up to Thursday show that equity outflows are at their highest since July. (See Chart 1 and see here for our proprietary, …
Faster q/q GDP growth at odds with other data Official figures claim that GDP growth edged up last quarter in q/q terms, from 1.1% to 1.2%, driven by an acceleration in the service sector. But this doesn’t seem consistent with other indicators, which …
Orbán feeling the heat in Hungary In Hungary, Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party loosened the purse strings further this week as pressure continues to mount ahead of the upcoming parliamentary election in April. On Wednesday, Fidesz announced a 100bn HUF …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stronger growth and sticky price pressures January’s flash PMIs suggest that economic activity picked up at the start of Q1 and that inflationary pressures increased slightly. …
Moderate economic growth continues While the new year has begun with a lot of geopolitical turbulence, the flash PMIs for January suggest that the euro-zone economy is still expanding at a moderate pace while price pressures rose a little. The euro-zone …
Fiscal expansion triggers huge bond sell-off Calm returned to Japan’s bond market towards the end of the week after the biggest sell-off in living memory earlier this week. (See Chart 1.) While the steady rise in long-term bond yields in recent months was …
The BoJ turned more upbeat when it left policy settings unchanged today and there’s a risk that the next rate hike will come earlier than our current forecast of July. And despite the recent surge in JGB yields, the Bank doesn’t seem keen to slow the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. December’s pick-up not enough to prevent a contraction in Q4 December’s unexpected rise in retail sales volumes wasn’t enough to prevent yet another disappointing “Golden …
Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.75% by next year The Bank of Japan sounded more optimistic when it left policy settings unchanged today and there’s a chance that it could raise rates earlier than our current forecast of July. The Bank’s decision …
RBA will put its foot on the brakes Australian labour force data released yesterday seemed to confirm what business surveys have increasingly been telling us: that labour market conditions are tightening rather than loosening. Indeed, with employment …
BoJ’s tightening cycle has further to run With underlying inflation price pressures remaining firm, we expect the Bank of Japan to resume its tightening cycle in the coming months. The plunge in headline inflation from 2.9% in November to 2.1% in December …
Inflationary pressures more benign than they seem Although headline inflation picked up further in Q4, underlying inflation remains well behaved. That being the case, we still think the RBNZ will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, whereas markets …
22nd January 2026
The divergence between data center REIT performance and data center asset values over the last year appears to reflect the high level of uncertainty in the sector. Questions over power constraints, memory chip processing efficiency and technological …
Recent soft data quash talk of return to rate hikes this year Economy weak but not in urgent need of stimulus Bank will keep rates on hold until next year We think the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold again next week despite the soft data …
Egypt’s external position continues to improve Nearly two years on from Egypt’s dramatic shift back toward economic orthodoxy, data released this week provided further evidence that the economy’s improved external competitiveness is placing the external …
No evidence of the government shutdown weighing on spending The solid 0.3% m/m gains in real consumption in both October and November confirm that the government shutdown had very little impact on economic activity. Those gains slightly outpaced our prior …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2026) …
Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as severe as Europe’s dependence on pipeline gas from …
There is no doubt that the Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 1.75% next week and continue to signal it will not adjust its policy for many months. We think that policymakers will only start to consider raising rates towards the end of the year once …
The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 3.8% y/y in the first half of January supports our view that Banxico will leave its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% at its next meeting in February. The outturn was up from 3.7% y/y in the first half of December and …
CBRT slows easing, but large cuts still lie ahead The Turkish central bank (CBRT) unexpectedly slowed the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut, to 37.00%. We think this was a response to a likely temporary rise in inflation this month and we …
