Net lending by banks stronger again in May Net lending by banks to commercial real estate in May reached its highest level since December 2025, at $15.4bn. Both multifamily and other commercial sectors saw their highest monthly net lending since December. …
15th June 2026
Re-opening the Strait unlikely to lead to stronger industrial production Euro-zone industrial production held up well in the first two months of the Iran war, and the recent news on the Strait of Hormuz will be welcomed by the region’s manufacturers. But …
What will the US-Iran deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz mean for the global economic outlook? How long before energy flows are restored? How will central banks respond to the news? Our economists hosted a special online briefing …
It remains to be seen whether the deal with Iran announced Sunday by President Trump represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement, but it nonetheless reduces the risk of more adverse macro and market scenarios developing in the coming months. This …
The announcement of a US-Iran deal has given markets a lift across the board, but different responses across central banks this week could see the start of more divergence across bond and FX markets. The real deal? The announcement of a peace deal between …
Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing , Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may …
12th June 2026
Asset markets have rebounded on the latest reports of (yet another) imminent US-Iran peace deal, but the bigger test facing the US equity market is arguably the incoming mega-IPOs, the first of which is taking place today. While the mood music is …
And fiscal policy is unlikely to come to the rescue Credit data published today showed bank loan growth in China slowing for a 14 th consecutive month to a fresh record low. The slowdown in bank lending is not the result of a lack of supply. Liquidity in …
The dovish communications from the Bank of Canada this week, as well as hopes that a US-Iran peace deal is just round the corner, suggest the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this year. While some commentators are speculating that the …
The 0.21% m/m rise in core CPI in May was weaker than both we and the consensus had expected and provided some validation to the more dovish FOMC members that price pressures do not necessarily warrant rate hikes. (See here .) The details were …
Peru: What would a Fujimori presidency mean? Peru’s presidential run-off vote on Sunday has turned into a nail-biter. With 98.2% of ballots counted, right-wing candidate Fujimori holds a narrow lead over left-wing rival Sánchez (50.002% to 49.998%). But a …
Asian currencies have rallied today on hopes that the US and Iran are closing in on a deal. That still leaves most sharply down against the dollar since the start of the year. (See Chart 1.) But an end to the war and a normalisation of energy flows from …
The ECB’s decision this week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), from 2.00% to 2.25% (see here ), may at the margin increase the pressure on the Bank of England to join the central bank hiking club. But with UK monetary policy starting from …
Rise in inflation strengthens the case for a rate hold next week The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.7% y/y in May keeps next week’s Copom meeting finely balanced between a hold and a 25bp cut. On balance, we think that the former is more likely. The …
Further inflation rises are coming India’s headline consumer price inflation picked up to a 15-month high of 3.9% y/y in May and further rises are going to follow. We think the RBI will start hiking interest rates soon. Consumer price inflation rose from …
We’ve seen this movie before… President Trump’s social media post on Thursday has once again raised hopes of an agreement that would “re-open” the Strait of Hormuz, and has helped to push the front-month Brent crude price to its lowest level since early …
For those who think that three macroeconomic scenarios are just not enough, this week the ECB delivered by adding a fourth. (See here .) A few key points are worth making about the projections. The first is the level of uncertainty. In normal times, four …
Credit growth hits record low The net increase in new credit jumped in May, but that just reflects the usual seasonal pattern. Year-on-year growth in aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE – the PBOC’s preferred measure of broad credit) fell from …
Inflation surprise gives MNB room to cut Hungary’s inflation data for May, released this week, followed a similar pattern to those elsewhere in Central Europe. Inflation fell (from 2.1% y/y in April to 1.8%) and was far weaker than most expected (by …
Blockbuster IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, together with share sales by some AI hyperscalers, look set to unleash a wave of equity supply that will prove a major test for the stock market. As we noted earlier this year , gross equity issuance …
A little more tightening in store in South Africa Data due next Wednesday are likely to show a further rise in inflation in South Africa in May, strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy again. We’ve pencilled in an increase …
Higher domestic interest rates still needed The combined RBI and government package of measures to support the rupee unveiled last Friday appears to have halted the currency’s slide, but it has failed to trigger a meaningful recovery. One week on from the …
Inflation remains the bigger concern We learnt this week that Australian consumers remain deeply downbeat about the economy. Westpac’s headline consumer confidence index fell from 83 to 80.6 in June, leaving it well below its long-run average of 100. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. GDP starting to crack April’s 0.1% m/m contraction in real GDP showed the strong start to the year is now faltering. After growing by 0.6% q/q in Q1, we expect GDP to come to a …
Bank will be focused on upside inflation risks We got further evidence this week that price pressures in Japan are intensifying, with producer price inflation accelerating from 5.3% in April to 6.3% in May. At first glance, it might be tempting to …
Faced with spiking energy prices and a slowing economy, policymakers have, in line with past ECB practice, put the emphasis on the inflation threat. If previous similar episodes are any guide, today’s hike (and any further ECB hikes at its next few …
11th June 2026
The Iran war looks set to boost commercial construction costs by at least 8%, on top of the 24% rise seen since 2021. With commercial capital value growth also coming under pressure as interest rates rise, fewer developments will be green-lit. That …
Fed on hold, but set to drop easing bias New dot plots will show how close hawks are to voting for interest rate hikes We expect Fed to eventually hike, even if oil prices ease modestly Kevin Warsh’s first meeting back on the FOMC should be an eventful …
Despite the ECB’s rate hike today, we think the SNB will leave its policy rate unchanged at zero next week. Higher energy prices have already pushed up energy inflation but overall inflation remains well within the SNB’s target range and policymakers …
After the ECB raised interest rates by 25bp today, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, Christine Lagarde gave nothing away about the Bank’s likely next move in the press conference. We might learn more in the coming hours from the now-customary leaks to …
PPI data point to larger gain in core PCE deflator The May PPI data brought worse news for the Fed than was the case with the CPI data, with large gains in the portfolio management and airfares components pushing our estimate for the core PCE deflator up …
ECB hikes and at least one more is likely The ECB’s decision to raise the deposit rate from 2% to 2.25% was no surprise, and the press release offers no explicit guidance on the Bank’s next steps. But we suspect that either during the press conference, or …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . The threat of a return to outright conflict in Iran has grown over the past week. There have been further tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran and President Trump has warned that …
Bar for further tightening appears high The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its key policy rates unchanged today (rather than hike) confirms that it would take much more severe strains in the balance of payments than that seen in …
A hold looks nailed on in June and we expect rates to stay at 3.75% this year But hikes in July and/or September can’t be ruled out Either way, investors are wrong to price in rates of 4.25-4.50% by the end of 2027 A hold on Thursday 18 th June looks …
Buyer sentiment continues to stabilise, but housing market outlook is subdued While May’s RICS housing market survey shows that the worst of the falls in buyer sentiment may be in the past, a number of leading indicators continue to suggest that the risks …
US equities are influenced by the distribution of investors’ fed funds rate expectations, not just the average level of them. A perceived reduction in overall tail risks is one factor that has probably supported the US stock market over recent months. US …
10th June 2026
The combination of a plunge in China’s imports and an increase in the US’s exports have helped to absorb the loss of Middle Eastern supply in the oil market. But fundamentally demand is still well outstripping supply and will have to adjust in the absence …
The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. The Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected, and its latest communications …
Bank of Canada not likely to hike any time soon The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. The Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, …
The rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran War will worsen already-stretched housing affordability. This will weigh on housing activity over the next couple of quarters and presents a downside risk to our view that existing home sales will …
Headline CPI inflation above 4% but Fed will be reassured by the details The moderate 0.21% m/m rise in the core CPI in May was not as bad as we feared and the move was relatively narrow in nature, which should reassure the FOMC that price pressures are …
Note: We'll be discussing the outcome of the Bank of Japan's June meeting in an online Drop-In briefing on Tuesday, 16th June. Register here . Bank has signalled a rate hike at the upcoming meeting Bank will accelerate pace of tightening due to …
Inflation likely to retreat before long Although cost pressures for Chinese firms picked up further in May, they remain somewhat narrow in scope. Moreover, consumer price inflation is already showing signs of tapering off, and we think it will fall …
Price pressures still elevated The continued strength in producer price inflation makes it all but certain that the Bank of Japan will hike rates at its meeting next week. We also expect the Bank to speed up the pace of policy tightening going forward, …
There are tentative signs that the worst of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s economy from the Iran war may have passed, but we still expect the Kingdom to record a sharp contraction in GDP this year. The final estimate of Saudi Q1 GDP, released earlier today, …
9th June 2026
Amidst frequent talk of an impending “tipping point” in the global oil market, this Update answers five key questions on the topic, including the implications for prices. 1) What do we mean by a “tipping point”? The term refers to the point at which …
There was another reduction in the PREA consensus total return forecast for both 2026 and 2027 this quarter, led by the residential sector. However, this still left the consensus more optimistic than us for each of the next three years, with offices and …
