We expect growth to average more than 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates further this year. However, weaker labour force growth will limit the impending rise in the unemployment rate, and since we expect inflation to remain above target, we’ve pencilled in only 75bp of further easing this cycle.
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