Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks another turbulent week for the global economy. He talks to David Wilder about the latest escalation in the US trade war, the economic fallout from rising tensions with Iran and higher oil prices and why the AI …
24th July 2026
CJP protests unlikely to dent growth Large youth protests in Delhi have dominated domestic headlines this week, with demonstrators calling for action over exam paper leaks, graduate unemployment and corruption. Much of the movement has coalesced around …
Despite a favourable reaction to Intel’s consensus-beating financial results for Q2, concerns about the ability of hyperscalers in general and others to monetise huge investments in AI may continue to weigh on the S&P 500, which is also being affected by …
Trouble brewing in the Red Sea… The week kicked off with the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen announcing that they will block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to ships serving Saudi ports and, against the backdrop of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and …
Impact of new tariffs should be limited US tariffs on Asian economies are moving into a new phase following the expiration of the 10% global surcharge under Section 122 on 24 th July. As expected, the Trump administration has replaced that temporary …
Ghana and Nigeria hold to reinforce credibility Central banks in Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa all left interest rates unchanged this week. But while the decisions in the former two suggest that policymakers are focused on boosting their …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Some of the easing in stagflationary pressure may not last July’s flash PMI figures show that the stagflationary pressures faced by the Bank of England continued to soften. But …
Activity rebounding and inflationary pressures easing The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in July suggests that activity is rebounding and that inflationary pressures are easing. But given the re-escalation in the conflict in the Middle East and the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sun shines on sales, but resilience won’t last June’s strong rise in retail sales volumes suggests that consumers kept on spending despite the rise in energy prices since the war …
Spending growth starting to accelerate again Figures released this week showed that real household disposable income growth surged to a two-year high of 2.5% y/y in Q1. Consumption growth seems to have accelerated in Q2 and with the government’s fuel …
RBA's work isn't done yet The bumper 76,000 rise in Australian employment in June marked the strongest monthly gain in over a year. Although a surge in the participation rate left the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%, the data suggest that the economy …
Renewed rise in crude oil prices means Bank will see downside risks to activity However, weaker yen compounds upside risks to inflation from higher energy prices Bank set to hike again in October with rates reaching above-consensus 2% by end-2027 The …
Economy continues to shrug off energy cost shock The June composite PMI suggests that the economy remains resilient and still points to a sharp acceleration in inflation. According to the flash estimate released today, the composite PMI edged up from 52.8 …
Inflation won't remain low for much longer While inflation remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in June, the surge in producer price inflation points to a marked acceleration and we expect inflation to climb above 3% by early next year. The …
The continued rise in energy prices is starting to put pressure on financial markets more broadly, beyond just the bond market. While central banks continue to take a measured approach to the renewed surge in energy prices, there is still plenty of scope …
23rd July 2026
Fed’s communications suggest it will tighten policy if inflation pressures don’t soon ease Weak June price data rule out July move September remains our base case for the first hike The benign June price data brought the Fed some more time to gauge how …
Last week’s release of Kimi K3 has triggered a renewed wave of global interest in Chinese AI models. This Focus answers the key questions we have received from clients. It discusses how Chinese models have been able to catch up, whether they will overtake …
India’s policymakers have long-desired more financial activity linked to the economy to take place onshore. But they remain reluctant to quickly and fully open the capital account, with recent bouts of rupee volatility reinforcing the case for that …
MPC to keep interest rates at 3.75% and continue to sound hawkish Rebound in energy prices increases the chances of rate hikes in the coming months Unless energy prices rise further, we think rate hikes will be avoided and cuts will occur in 2027 The Bank …
The global AI investment boom is delivering a bonanza to electronics manufacturers across Asia well beyond just chipmakers in Korea and Taiwan. The recent performance of Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers has left other manufacturers in the shade. Korea’s …
The boom in AI-related corporate bond issuance looks set to continue as firms ramp up their spending on the AI buildout. We think this deluge of supply will increasingly test investors’ capacity to absorb new debt and place upward pressure on borrowing …
The ECB left interest rates unchanged today and gave nothing away about its intentions for the next meeting in September. Based on our forecast for energy prices to fall significantly in the coming months, we think the ECB is most likely to leave interest …
The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) surprise decision to keep its policy rate on hold (rather than hike) today suggests that the MPC isn’t as hawkish as we had thought, and our base case now is that the rate pause lasts until early next year. That …
The yen has fallen to a 40-year low against the dollar even as the BoJ has adopted a more hawkish tone and interest rate differentials have moved in its favour. Many commentators are pinning this on looser fiscal policy and government efforts to undermine …
Consumers unphased by higher gasoline prices The rise in retail sales volumes in May and flash estimate of another solid gain in June suggests households have shrugged off higher gasoline prices associated with the Iran war, and poses an upside risk to …
With the release of Kimi K3, Chinese AI models appear to have moved close to the global AI frontier, raising important questions for investors about the future of AI leadership, US tech valuations and China’s growth prospects. We were pleased to invite …
ECB pauses but chance of another hike is rising The ECB’s decision to leave its policy rates unchanged was no surprise, and the press release gives no clear signal about the Bank’s next move. If energy prices drop back in the coming months as we assume, …
The US tariff landscape is shifting once again. The "Section 122" global tariff expires on 24 th July, set to be replaced by a new batch of country-specific "Section 301" tariffs. And with new product-specific tariffs in the pipeline, and President Trump …
The latest data had showed tentative signs of recovery for the Gulf economies. But this is likely to have halted, or even reversed, due to recent re-escalation of the conflict. The downside risks to our already below-consensus growth forecasts for the …
Rise in oil prices will delay a return to easing The statement to today’s Turkish central bank (CBRT) decision, at which policy rates were kept unchanged, made clear that policymakers are concerned about the renewed rise in oil prices, which is likely to …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . US agrees to Saudi nuclear deal to firm up ties The US-Saudi nuclear deal announced this week has been a long time in the works but is a sign that Washington is trying to shore up ties …
The sharp reduction in China’s crude imports has been a key factor keeping a lid on global oil prices, and we suspect that it can sustain historically low imports for many more months. However, this would not prevent oil prices from rising - perhaps …
The “ Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “ Liberation Day”) will expire on Friday, to be replaced by country-specific “Section 301” tariffs. The new …
Korean growth slowed in the second quarter of the year, but still grew by a healthy 0.6% q/q, helped by strong export demand. Domestic demand struggled again, however, and we expect Korea to continue to record lopsided growth over the coming quarters. The …
Strong jobs data keeps tightening on the table With the labour market still holding its own, our forecast that the RBA will hike rates again in August remains alive and well. The 76,300 rise in employment in June was markedly stronger than the 15,000 …
While recent economic data in the UK have painted a fairly favourable picture for the new Prime Minister, the resurgence of energy prices and upwards pressure on long-term government bond yields globally is undermining his initial good fortune on the Gilt …
22nd July 2026
Nigeria’s president, Bola Tinubu, will head into the elections in six months’ time at the helm of an economy with a stronger external position, a more credible central bank and some modest fiscal progress since he took power. That improved backdrop should …
Higher risk-free interest rates and uncertainty from the war in Iran have led banks to tighten the availability of lending to commercial real estate. But property equities pricing has recovered from its dip following the start of the war and property …
Mexico has retained only a relatively small share of the value of its exports of AI-related products (our best estimate is that domestic value added accounts for around a third of the total). The sheer scale of these exports means that they still made a …
The PPI and import price data suggest that the AI buildout and supply constraints from the war in Iran will prevent core goods inflation from fully normalising, even as tariff effects ease. Earlier this year, the Dallas Fed estimated that core goods PCE …
The latest activity data suggest that India’s economy is slowing, but we think GDP growth should average 6.5% in 2026-27 - an enviable rate by global standards. Rainfall in the early stages of the monsoon has been weak, and if this remains the case it …
A surge in foreign buying of US equities could be another sign of trouble ahead for the S&P 500. After all, smaller surges also took place before the dotcom bubble burst; the GFC; and 2022’s drawdown. Admittedly, foreigners naturally tend to accumulate US …
The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy continued to grow rapidly in Q2, supporting our view that the economy will grow by more than 3% over 2026-27. The sharp drop in headline inflation appeared to be opening a small window for the …
Large inflation rise increases risk of a longer hiking cycle The larger-than-expected rise in South African inflation, to 5.0% y/y in June, alongside the recent rise in oil prices, increases the risk that the Reserve Bank (SARB) will follow up the 25bp …
Steady rupiah gives BI breathing room to keep rates on hold Bank Indonesia left interest rates on hold at 5.75% today as we had expected (but in contrast to the consensus) and so long as tensions in the Middle East ease over the coming weeks, we think …
GDP growth seems to have accelerated after the start of the Iran War and there are early signs that inflation will pick up sharply towards the end of the year. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could result in a sharper slowdown in GDP growth …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Higher inflation is still coming, but it won’t be high for long The easing in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June (consensus forecast 2.7%, CE …
Japan’s crude oil imports will remain below pre-war levels for now Japan’s crude oil imports rebounded strongly in June but with the Strait of Hormuz now closed again, they will remain below pre-war levels for a while yet. The 25.3% annual rise in import …
