While the recent underperformance of US tech stocks relative to Emerging Markets (EMs) echoes the eve of the dotcom bust, we think the AI rally still has a bit further to run. That said, if the AI bubble bursts, we think equities in EMs would hold up …
18th February 2026
The Chancellor’s fiscal statement to Parliament on Tuesday 3 rd March has the potential to be another flashpoint for Prime Minister Starmer and Chancellor Reeves. But whether Starmer/Reeves hang on or are eventually ousted, two economic and financial …
The latest batch of activity data from South Africa point to GDP growth softening to 0.2-0.3% q/q in the final quarter of last year. But we remain optimistic that a combination of easing supply side constraints, improved terms of trade, low inflation and …
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's proposal for a 9.5% property tax hike to help address a shortfall in the city's budget is likely to be reflected in many other major US cities over the coming years as they grapple with lower revenues. Much of that …
Despite a modest acceleration last quarter, aggregate Latin America growth was still relatively sluggish – and we don’t expect a major pickup over the course of this year either. While monetary easing cycles in Mexico and parts of the Andes are nearing an …
Our View: Recent downside inflation surprises across Central and Eastern Europe suggest there may be a bit more monetary easing than we previously thought in the near-term. But we maintain our view that the region will experience stronger GDP growth this …
World goods trade grew by about 4.5% in 2025 – its highest rate since 2011, except for the pandemic rebound in 2021. And we expect it to expand by a consensus-beating 2.5% or so this year. According to the CPB, real world goods trade rose by 2.2% m/m in …
Talks of early Lagarde exit not a good look Suggestions that Christine Lagarde may leave the ECB before the end of her term do not have any immediate implications for monetary policy. But the story shows that European politicians (like those elsewhere) …
Marcio Rubio’s comments this week that the US might provide financial support to Hungary if needed seems to have been welcomed by local financial markets. Hungary’s public finances are not in good health – particularly with lots of pre-election spending …
Uptick in core inflation may prompt SARB to move more cautiously South Africa’s headline inflation rate edged down to 3.5% y/y in January but this masked a small rise in the core rate which, at the margin, may make policymakers at the Reserve Bank …
We’re hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Tuesday 24 th February to discuss how a change in Prime Minister would influence the economy and markets. (Register here.) This page has been updated with additional analysis …
The new RBNZ Governor, Anna Breman, didn’t rock the boat at her inaugural meeting today. The Committee predictably left rates unchanged, while arguing that risks to the outlook remained two-sided. Although the Bank did signal an openness to hiking rates …
RBNZ remains on hold, but leaves door ajar for hike by year-end Although the RBNZ remains cautious about the near-term outlook, it seems open to normalising policy settings before long. The RBNZ’s decision to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at …
Wage growth will remain uncomfortably high for a while Although the pickup in wage growth last quarter was driven in part by one-off factors, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures will be slow to recede over the year ahead. Insofar as that …
The drop in US Treasury yields over the past couple of weeks remains difficult to square with recent economic news. But other factors – in particular ongoing jitters around the prospects of the US tech sector – may continue to weigh on Treasury yields in …
17th February 2026
While the post-pandemic divergence between consumers’ confidence and the health of the stock market in the US is striking, we doubt the old relationship between the two will re-establish itself in 2026 as the rally in equities resumes. But it could do so …
The US’ relatively strong economic growth outlook and large data center market are likely to support a pick-up in foreign demand for US assets after the cross-border share of purchases fell to at least a 15-year low in 2025. But importantly, we don’t …
EM dollar bond spreads are close to multi-year lows and we expect them generally to rise over the coming year or so. That informs our view that returns are set to be much poorer than they have been lately. We still think they’ll outperform US …
Our UK team hosted this on-the-day briefing covering the latest signals from Number 11, and what they mean for the UK's economic and financial market …
Sanguine inflation backdrop should reassure Bank The further moderation in core inflation in January lends support to our view that it will decline to 2.0% by the middle of the year, which is a faster pace of disinflation than the Bank of Canada currently …
Rates on hold despite recession The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and despite the economy falling into recession at the end of last year, we think a return to monetary easing is still some way off. We …
We have updated our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the long-run benefits of AI. The US still leads. The Asian tigers and UK remain other key beneficiaries. And Europe remains a bit …
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2026) …
Chinese exports to Africa surged last year and we expect Africa’s trade deficit with China to persist presenting risks to domestic industrialisation ambitions. However, China has levers that it can pull to ward off any potential trade frictions, including …
Pakistan has pulled itself back from the edge of economic collapse: foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt, inflation has stabilised, the current account is broadly balanced and the fiscal position has improved markedly. However, weak economic growth …
The recent announcement of a scaling back of gigaprojects suggests that Saudi Arabia will be following the playbook of previous tightening episodes by focusing on cuts to capital expenditure. This will probably come alongside efforts to raise non-oil …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weak jobs markets taking a heavier toll on wage growth The lack of green shoots of recovery in the labour market and further fall in wage growth supports the idea that the Bank …
BanRep to continue to hike despite slowdown in growth The weak 0.1% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 was driven by weaker domestic demand and is the first tentative sign that the economy’s recent period of unbalanced growth may be coming to an end. …
16th February 2026
Muted fall in inflation won’t stop easing cycle restarting The smaller than expected fall in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 15.1% y/y in January is unlikely to worry policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria given that core price pressures …
Manufacturing sector still struggling for momentum The pick-up in manufacturing sales in December was largely due to a rebound in auto sales following a temporary disruption in the prior month. While the survey evidence is showing some tentative signs of …
Weak domestic demand likely to be temporary The slowdown in Israeli GDP growth in Q4, to 4.0% q/q annualised, was driven by weakness in domestic demand. But we think domestic demand will rebound this year. And provided there isn’t a renewed escalation of …
Asia is expected to account for a rising share of global output over the next few decades. But how secure is that outlook? In this special online briefing, our Asia economists discussed the publication of our latest Long-Run Outlook report and how it …
Weak growth in Q4, but 2026 will be better The 0.2% q/q rise in sporting event adjusted GDP in Q4 was a bit smaller than we expected (+0.5%). This may be partly because the 39% tariff imposed on Switzerland by the US was only reduced to 15% part way …
We doubt the disconnect between robust US economic data and fearful US financial markets will continue. We expect that US equity markets, Treasury yields, and the dollar will rebound. Strong US data vs dovish Fed narrative US Treasury yields have dropped …
Q4 strength encouraging but renewed weakness likely Thailand’s economy rebounded strongly in Q4 2025, but we doubt this momentum will persist into 2026. Although the recent election outcome should reduce near-term political risk, it does little to improve …
Sluggish GDP growth could prompt yet more fiscal loosening The minuscule rebound in activity last quarter may embolden PM Takaichi to press ahead with even more fiscal loosening. The 0.1% q/q rebound in Q4 GDP barely reversed the 0.7% q/q plunge in Q3 and …
Net lending by banks to commercial real estate softened at the start of 2026 to $4.5bn in January, the lowest since September 2025. But the total of $33bn over the past three months represents a strong turnaround from the start of 2025, when net lending …
13th February 2026
Although the latest US inflation data has extended a Treasury rally that has left yields across the curve at their lows of the year, we think the totality of the data this week actually strengthens the case for a Warsh-led Fed to only deliver one cut this …
Unpacking payrolls January’s employment report was about as good as could have been hoped for. The 172,000 rise in private payrolls shot past consensus expectations of a 70,000 gain, with the methodological change to the birth-death model not turning out …
Ramaphosa doubles down on reform South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa used last night’s State of the Nation (SONA) address to highlight recent economic gains, while outlining reforms aimed at reducing crime and improving infrastructure. While the tone …
A week of political drama, much of it emanating from south of the border, provides useful insight into how we can expect the CUSMA renegotiation to unfold. First, the Trump administration will be hostile. The week began with President Trump threatening to …
From the lows of December retail sales to the highs of January payrolls, recent US data has sent mixed signals. But the economy remains in relatively good shape, argues Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown on the latest episode of the …
Mexico: March rate cut is still in play Inflation data from Mexico this week showed that the rise in the headline rate to 3.8% y/y in January was driven by a further strengthening of core inflation. Banxico had flagged this concern at last week’s meeting …
March begins with a pivotal week for China watchers as the government unveils its economic targets for 2026 alongside the 15th Five-Year Plan. But what should investors really take away from these announcements from this year’s National People’s Congress? …
Path for EU carbon prices becoming more bumpy Several comments from political and industrial leaders in Europe calling for the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) to be watered down contributed to an 8% fall in EU carbon prices this week. Notably, prices …
Purchases of US assets have probably picked up China’s regulators have asked banks to curb their exposure to US Treasuries, according to a Bloomberg report on Monday. Those with high exposure to US government bonds have been told to decrease their …
CPI inflation slows, but gap with PCE measure growing The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in January was mainly due to a bigger 0.38% m/m gain in core services prices, with core goods prices unchanged, suggesting that tariffs and unseasonably large hikes …
Starmer drama is unlikely to have ended It feels as though we have reached the interval of the “Starmer drama“ rather than the final act. That’s why this week we widened our three scenarios of what would happen to fiscal policy and gilt yields should …
