Strong profit growth, as emphasised by recent earnings reports, is one reason to think that the S&P 500 will do well over the rest of this year. In fact, we think there are at least three reasons. First, the latest earnings results make it clear that 2025 …
26th February 2026
Asia-Pacific all-property capital value declines eased further in Q4 to minus 0.8% y/y, reinforcing signs that the market is bottoming out. Looking ahead, however, elevated risk-free rates and muted rental growth will likely keep the recovery subdued. …
Rates on hold, but BoK to resume easing in H2 The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate on hold today at 2.50%, and we expect the central bank to maintain this stance until at least mid-year, before eventually restarting its easing cycle around the middle …
Further efforts from the Takaichi government to influence the BoJ threatens another round of turmoil in Japan’s bond and currency markets. But we think the underlying fundamentals point towards continued stabilisation in the JGB market and a rebound in …
25th February 2026
In this Update , we answer some of the questions we have received on how the new US tariff regime (see here ) will impact Canada and Mexico. The big picture is that Canada and Mexico’s weighted-average tariff rates have declined only a little, and will …
Fiscal tightening has helped to narrow budget deficits markedly in a number of EMs, notably Argentina, South Africa and Turkey. But elsewhere adjustment has been limited – particularly in Brazil. And in some EMs, budget deficits are large and widening (in …
The fertility rate in Korea increased in 2025 for the second year in a row, offering a rare glimmer of relief given the country’s terrible demographics. But the fertility rate remains very low and we think the recent rise was mainly due to temporary …
South Africa’s finance minister used today’s Budget speech to, once again offer more fiscal giveaways, mainly in the form of putting off previously mooted tax rises, rather than save the revenue windfall afforded to him by high metals prices. Fiscal …
As the conflict in the Middle East continues to unfold, we hosted another online briefing on Wednesday 4th March to examine how risks to energy and financial markets and to regional and global economies are evolving. …
We think metals prices will fall back from current high levels, which will weigh on Latin American currencies. But prices will remain high by historical standards, which should keep external positions strong in the major Andean producers – Peru and Chile …
All-property valuation scores worsened slightly in Q4 2025, but remained in the fair value zone, despite property cap rates inching lower once again. Looking ahead, we think appraised cap rates still need to rise further to return some assets to fair …
The green shoots of a recovery in the housing market at the start of 2026 support other evidence that suggests the economy has strengthened. We think further falls in mortgage rates and looser lending standards will allow house prices to rise by 3.5% in …
BoT cut rates, more easing to come Thailand's central bank (BoT) cut its policy rate by a further 25bp today, taking it to 1.00%, and we do not think this marks the end of the easing cycle. With growth likely to struggle and inflation pressures …
The continued acceleration in Australia’s underlying inflation at the start of the year vindicates the RBA’s decision to tighten policy at its February meeting. With the economy and labour market operating above sustainable levels, we expect the Bank to …
Above-target inflation will require further tightening Trimmed mean inflation climbed to a fresh high in January, consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep tightening monetary policy. Headline inflation was unchanged in January …
Today’s rally leaves major US equity indices stuck in a range just shy of their all-time high. We think the next move that sticks will be higher, not lower. Most major US equity have recovered from the sell-of yesterday and have returned back within a …
24th February 2026
With Germany’s fiscal stimulus now beginning to show up in the data, we think the increase in defence and infrastructure spending may be even slower and smaller than we had assumed – but that may be offset by a significant rise in other spending, …
Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 26) …
Inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has surprised to the downside in recent months and is now below central banks’ targets. While we expect inflation to rise by year-end, it will follow a lower path than we had previously thought. In …
Signs of strength but also reasons to be cautious The marked reacceleration in house price growth in December, to 5.8% on a three-month annualised basis from negative territory only four months prior, reflects strengthening housing demand as mortgage …
CBN restarts its easing cycle The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to restart its easing cycle with a 50bp cut, to 26.50%, today and Governor Cardoso’s view that inflation risks are balanced suggests there is plenty of room for further cuts. We expect a …
MNB resumes easing as inflation falls below target The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 25bp today, to 6.25%, will likely be followed by further interest rate cuts over the coming months. We will firm up our new …
Inflation rises, but March cut still on the table The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 3.9% y/y, in the first half of February was driven largely by higher non-core inflation and leaves an interest rate cut at Banxico’s next meeting in March in play. …
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2026) …
A pick-up in investment activity, coming alongside strength in the tourism sector, is likely to sustain rapid growth of 4-5% y/y in Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon economy. And once production at the North Field gas project comes online, Qatar’s overall GDP …
PM Takaichi is misdiagnosing what’s holding back Japan’s economy. This means that rather than boosting Japan’s long-term growth potential, her policies may instead unleash a wave of wasteful public spending that would lift inflation and put upward …
The immediate impact of the outburst of violence in Mexico following the killing of drug kingpin “El Mencho” is likely to be a hit to tourism. But the longer the unrest drags on, the bigger the risk that it disrupts manufacturing too, especially of …
23rd February 2026
Note: This report has been updated since publication to reflect that only the 10% tariff has been imposed as of 24/02/2026. The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than …
BoI leaves rates on hold as caution prevails The Bank of Israel’s (BoI’s) decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today underscores its commitment to a cautious easing cycle despite softer recent inflation data. We continue to expect the policy …
The Middle East and North Africa is set for the fastest pace of GDP growth, outside of the pandemic period, since 2011. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s North Field will boost the Gulf economies. But lower energy prices are likely …
Tariff uncertainty is back after the US Supreme Court’s ruling and President Trump’s response over the weekend, while US-Iran tensions continue to edge higher. In a week short on major economic data, that may keep equities – and financial markets more …
There’s growing talk that South Africa’s government could introduce a fiscal rule at this week’s Budget. If so, this would strengthen fiscal credibility and help to lock-in the recent falls in local currency bond yields. But the experience from other EMs …
Ifo still weak in February, but other surveys more optimistic Although the German Ifo remained quite weak in February, we still think economic conditions in Germany are improving. And for now at least, it seems mostly likely that the US Supreme Court …
Russia’s economy has proven remarkably resilient since the war in Ukraine began four years ago, underpinned by military-related stimulus, an ability to adapt to Western sanctions and disciplined macroeconomic policy. However, we think Russia has now …
Donald Trump has moved swiftly in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs, but what will the President's latest announcements mean for the global economy? Our economists hosted this special briefing to answer client questions on the White House …
O ur new Overcapacity Index for China shows that the government’s “anti-involution” campaign, which aims to tackle deflation by curbing excess supply, has yet to make much headway. That’s unlikely to change any time soon, as local officials will remain …
Our China Overcapacity Index combines a range of data on fixed asset utilisation, inventory levels, output prices and profitability into a single indicator to gauge the extent of overcapacity across China's manufacturing sector. Use this dashboard to …
Trump’s new 15% global tariff rate reduces the tariff burden on most Asian countries, but the biggest winner is China. It still faces a higher tariff than countries elsewhere in the region, but the gap has narrowed, improving China’s relative standing. …
Trump hikes new global tariff rate to 15% In a social media post this morning, President Trump announced that he intends to raise his new global tariff rate from the 10% rate announced yesterday, to the maximum 15% allowed under Section 122 of the 1974 …
21st February 2026
Trump imposes alternative 10% global tariff under Section 122 In a hastily-arranged press conference to respond to the Supreme Court’s ruling that his IEEPA-related reciprocal tariffs were illegal, President Trump has announced that he will instead be …
20th February 2026
The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown …
Today’s ruling that President Donald Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs was illegal will not deter policymakers in Ottawa from continuing to prioritise the reorientation of trade flows toward other markets, with replacement measures likely imminent . There were …
Core PCE inflation likely above 3% in January The price data this week made for grim reading for the Fed. After a shutdown-related delay, we finally learned that core PCE prices rose by 0.36% m/m in December, which was enough to push the annual rate up to …
Fiscal giveaways (and rules) may be on the cards South Africa’s improved public finances suggest that there is unlikely to be a repeat of the debacle seen at the 2025 Budget, which was postponed several times amid disputes on fiscal tightening measures. …
