UK Autumn Budget 2025: Economic, financial and housing market implications Key Budget Analysis UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read Capital Daily Muddle-through budget supports the case for lower Gilt yields The Gilt market is breathing a sigh of relief after the much-anticipated UK budget announcement today delivered less bad news than feared and the Chancellor appears to have, so far, come out of a... 26th November 2025 · 5 mins read Event UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets? 26th November 2025, 3:00PM GMT Our economists hosted this fast focused briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves’ statement to the House of Commons, to discuss what the Budget means for the economy, housing and markets, and to answer... More fiscal analysis UK Economics Rapid Response UK Budget (26th Nov. 2025) This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2025 Preview We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts. That is... 5th November 2025 · 27 mins read UK Housing Market Focus How could the Budget influence UK housing? Tax rises of about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, mostly for households and potentially on property, would be a headwind for housing activity and prices, particularly at the top end of the... 5th November 2025 · 16 mins read UK Housing Market Outlook Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by... 27th October 2025 · 17 mins read UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read UK Economics Weekly What if Starmer and Reeves are replaced? The government's vulnerability will make the job of stabilising the public finances and boosting economic growth more difficult. It also raises the risk of an altogether worse outcome – a fiscal... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read UK macro dashboards UK Economics UK Fiscal Headroom Monitor An interactive guide to the impact of market interest rate expectations on the fiscal policy space available to the Chancellor. UK Macro Explore interactive charts tracking the key indicators shaping the UK’s economic outlook—from growth and inflation to labour markets and policy. UK Housing Interactive dashboard offers all of our forecasts and key data for the UK housing market. Latest UK economic, housing and markets coverage UK Commercial Property Update A strong Q4 doesn’t mean UK commercial property investment is set to boom Commercial property investment hit a record high in Q4, but we doubt that signals the start of a strong recovery. Admittedly, a fall in financing costs will give transactions something of a boost in... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2026) The 0.7% m/m rebound in the Halifax measure of house prices in January suggests the housing market started 2026 on a stronger footing than the 0.3% m/m rise on the Nationwide index implied. We think... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read Capital Daily Weighing up the implications of today’s MPC and ECB meetings A dovish UK MPC meeting prompted big falls in both short-dated Gilt yields and sterling today, whereas there wasn’t so much reaction in the markets to the ECB’s gathering. We think there is scope for... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read UK Economics Update Dovish BoE supports our view that rates will be cut to 3.00% While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today, as widely expected, the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we anticipated. This this supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (5th Feb. 2026) While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today (as widely expected), the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we expected, which supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced to 3... 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jan. 26) The headline CIPS construction PMI leapt to 46.4 in January, a level broadly in line with September 2025 after three particularly weak months at the end of 2025. Nevertheless, that kept the index in... 5th February 2026 · 1 min read UK Housing Market Update Higher LTI ratios to boost UK mortgage lending By allowing mortgage lenders to lend more for any given level of borrowers’ income, the relaxation of the cap on high loan-to-income lending last year suggests gross mortgage lending will rise faster... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Muddle-through budget supports the case for lower Gilt yields The Gilt market is breathing a sigh of relief after the much-anticipated UK budget announcement today delivered less bad news than feared and the Chancellor appears to have, so far, come out of a... 26th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets? 26th November 2025, 3:00PM GMT Our economists hosted this fast focused briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves’ statement to the House of Commons, to discuss what the Budget means for the economy, housing and markets, and to answer...
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Budget (26th Nov. 2025) This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2025 Preview We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts. That is... 5th November 2025 · 27 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus How could the Budget influence UK housing? Tax rises of about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, mostly for households and potentially on property, would be a headwind for housing activity and prices, particularly at the top end of the... 5th November 2025 · 16 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by... 27th October 2025 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What if Starmer and Reeves are replaced? The government's vulnerability will make the job of stabilising the public finances and boosting economic growth more difficult. It also raises the risk of an altogether worse outcome – a fiscal... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update A strong Q4 doesn’t mean UK commercial property investment is set to boom Commercial property investment hit a record high in Q4, but we doubt that signals the start of a strong recovery. Admittedly, a fall in financing costs will give transactions something of a boost in... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2026) The 0.7% m/m rebound in the Halifax measure of house prices in January suggests the housing market started 2026 on a stronger footing than the 0.3% m/m rise on the Nationwide index implied. We think... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the implications of today’s MPC and ECB meetings A dovish UK MPC meeting prompted big falls in both short-dated Gilt yields and sterling today, whereas there wasn’t so much reaction in the markets to the ECB’s gathering. We think there is scope for... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Dovish BoE supports our view that rates will be cut to 3.00% While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today, as widely expected, the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we anticipated. This this supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (5th Feb. 2026) While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today (as widely expected), the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we expected, which supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced to 3... 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jan. 26) The headline CIPS construction PMI leapt to 46.4 in January, a level broadly in line with September 2025 after three particularly weak months at the end of 2025. Nevertheless, that kept the index in... 5th February 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Higher LTI ratios to boost UK mortgage lending By allowing mortgage lenders to lend more for any given level of borrowers’ income, the relaxation of the cap on high loan-to-income lending last year suggests gross mortgage lending will rise faster... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
