UK Autumn Budget 2025: Economic, financial and housing market implications Key Budget Analysis UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read Capital Daily Muddle-through budget supports the case for lower Gilt yields The Gilt market is breathing a sigh of relief after the much-anticipated UK budget announcement today delivered less bad news than feared and the Chancellor appears to have, so far, come out of a... 26th November 2025 · 5 mins read Event UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets? 26th November 2025, 3:00PM GMT Our economists hosted this fast focused briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves’ statement to the House of Commons, to discuss what the Budget means for the economy, housing and markets, and to answer... More fiscal analysis UK Economics Rapid Response UK Budget (26th Nov. 2025) This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2025 Preview We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts. That is... 5th November 2025 · 27 mins read UK Housing Market Focus How could the Budget influence UK housing? Tax rises of about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, mostly for households and potentially on property, would be a headwind for housing activity and prices, particularly at the top end of the... 5th November 2025 · 16 mins read UK Housing Market Outlook Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by... 27th October 2025 · 17 mins read UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read UK Economics Weekly What if Starmer and Reeves are replaced? The government's vulnerability will make the job of stabilising the public finances and boosting economic growth more difficult. It also raises the risk of an altogether worse outcome – a fiscal... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read UK macro dashboards UK Economics UK Fiscal Headroom Monitor An interactive guide to the impact of market interest rate expectations on the fiscal policy space available to the Chancellor. UK Macro Explore interactive charts tracking the key indicators shaping the UK’s economic outlook—from growth and inflation to labour markets and policy. UK Housing Interactive dashboard offers all of our forecasts and key data for the UK housing market. Latest UK economic, housing and markets coverage UK Economics Weekly Public sector pay not an obstacle to further BoE rate cuts We expect the striking gap between public and private sector pay growth in October to narrow in the coming months. But even if political pressure on the government means public sector pay growth is... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. The weakening in the labour market last year should continue to bear down on wage... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2025) The 0.6% m/m fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in December was the biggest monthly fall since August 2023, chimes with the 0.4% m/m fall in the Nationwide release last week and confirms that... 8th January 2026 · 3 mins read UK Economics Update Four ways the UK consensus may be wrong in 2026 We think investors will be surprised by how far inflation, interest rates and gilt yields fall this year. That said, these forecasts could be knocked off course should fiscal policy not be tightened... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Dec. 25) The slight rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI in December 2025 to 40.1, from 39.4 in November, left the index firmly in contractionary territory. The rise was driven entirely by an improvement... 7th January 2026 · 1 min read UK Housing Market Update House price growth to beat the consensus forecast in 2026 Lower inflation, lower interest rates, continued tight supply of new homes and the prospect of more high loan-to-income mortgage lending means we think annual house price growth will accelerate from 1... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property returns to hit five-year high in 2026 As we expected, and in contrast to consensus, all-property yields saw no compression in 2025. But stronger-than-expected rental growth means our call for all-property total returns of 6.6% in 2025... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Nov. 25) Net lending secured against commercial property accelerated again in November, reaching £2.49bn, the second strongest monthly increase since May 2020 when banks granted interest payment holidays. 5th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Muddle-through budget supports the case for lower Gilt yields The Gilt market is breathing a sigh of relief after the much-anticipated UK budget announcement today delivered less bad news than feared and the Chancellor appears to have, so far, come out of a... 26th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets? 26th November 2025, 3:00PM GMT Our economists hosted this fast focused briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves’ statement to the House of Commons, to discuss what the Budget means for the economy, housing and markets, and to answer...
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Budget (26th Nov. 2025) This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2025 Preview We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts. That is... 5th November 2025 · 27 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus How could the Budget influence UK housing? Tax rises of about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, mostly for households and potentially on property, would be a headwind for housing activity and prices, particularly at the top end of the... 5th November 2025 · 16 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by... 27th October 2025 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What if Starmer and Reeves are replaced? The government's vulnerability will make the job of stabilising the public finances and boosting economic growth more difficult. It also raises the risk of an altogether worse outcome – a fiscal... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Public sector pay not an obstacle to further BoE rate cuts We expect the striking gap between public and private sector pay growth in October to narrow in the coming months. But even if political pressure on the government means public sector pay growth is... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. The weakening in the labour market last year should continue to bear down on wage... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2025) The 0.6% m/m fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in December was the biggest monthly fall since August 2023, chimes with the 0.4% m/m fall in the Nationwide release last week and confirms that... 8th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Four ways the UK consensus may be wrong in 2026 We think investors will be surprised by how far inflation, interest rates and gilt yields fall this year. That said, these forecasts could be knocked off course should fiscal policy not be tightened... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Dec. 25) The slight rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI in December 2025 to 40.1, from 39.4 in November, left the index firmly in contractionary territory. The rise was driven entirely by an improvement... 7th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update House price growth to beat the consensus forecast in 2026 Lower inflation, lower interest rates, continued tight supply of new homes and the prospect of more high loan-to-income mortgage lending means we think annual house price growth will accelerate from 1... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property returns to hit five-year high in 2026 As we expected, and in contrast to consensus, all-property yields saw no compression in 2025. But stronger-than-expected rental growth means our call for all-property total returns of 6.6% in 2025... 6th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Nov. 25) Net lending secured against commercial property accelerated again in November, reaching £2.49bn, the second strongest monthly increase since May 2020 when banks granted interest payment holidays. 5th January 2026 · 1 min read
