UK Autumn Budget 2025: Economic, financial and housing market implications Key Budget Analysis UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2025 Preview We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts. That is... 5th November 2025 · 27 mins read Bonds Focus Will Gilts remain the sick man of the bond market? We think long-dated Gilt yields will fall over the next year, ensuring they no longer remain an outlier in the G7. That’s mainly because we expect inflation to fall sharply in 2026 and allow the Bank... 13th November 2025 · 21 mins read UK Housing Market Focus How could the Budget influence UK housing? Tax rises of about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, mostly for households and potentially on property, would be a headwind for housing activity and prices, particularly at the top end of the... 5th November 2025 · 16 mins read More fiscal analysis UK Economics Update Autumn Budget 2025 Checklist This checklist helps clients track the policies and forecasts announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12:30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 26th November. Read our Previews here. We will send a Rapid... 24th November 2025 · 3 mins read UK Housing Market Update Mansion tax may not be as big as previously feared An average annual council tax surcharge in the Budget on 26 th November of possibly around £2,000 for owners of the most expensive homes may be only a modest drag on activity and prices at the top end... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read UK Housing Market Outlook Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by... 27th October 2025 · 17 mins read UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read UK Economics Weekly What if Starmer and Reeves are replaced? The government's vulnerability will make the job of stabilising the public finances and boosting economic growth more difficult. It also raises the risk of an altogether worse outcome – a fiscal... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read UK Economics Update What could trigger a fiscal crisis in the UK? Many of the conditions which have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. This does not mean a fiscal crisis in the UK is imminent or inevitable. The missing ingredient is a trigger. If a... 5th September 2025 · 8 mins read UK macro dashboards UK Economics UK Fiscal Headroom Monitor An interactive guide to the impact of market interest rate expectations on the fiscal policy space available to the Chancellor. UK Macro Explore interactive charts tracking the key indicators shaping the UK’s economic outlook—from growth and inflation to labour markets and policy. UK Housing Interactive dashboard offers all of our forecasts and key data for the UK housing market. Latest UK economic, housing and markets coverage UK Economics Update Autumn Budget 2025 Checklist This checklist helps clients track the policies and forecasts announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12:30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 26th November. Read our Previews here. We will send a Rapid... 24th November 2025 · 3 mins read Capital Daily What to make of the AI and fiscal concerns roiling markets Equity markets remain under pressure even after positive news on both AI demand and the US labour market. A renewed sell-off in Japan’s bond market isn’t helping matters. Meanwhile, we think the UK... 24th November 2025 · 6 mins read UK Economics Weekly Reeves and Bailey play conflicting parts in policy pantomime Raising taxes in next Wednesday’s Budget a month before Christmas day will make the Chancellor look like Scrooge. But we now think that, due to the weaker news on activity and inflation in recent... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read UK Housing Market Update Mansion tax may not be as big as previously feared An average annual council tax surcharge in the Budget on 26 th November of possibly around £2,000 for owners of the most expensive homes may be only a modest drag on activity and prices at the top end... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2025) November’s flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth is unlikely to snapback in Q4 and showed that services price pressures eased sharply. With what is set to be a big tax-raising Budget on Wednesday next... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The last major economic releases before the Budget next Wednesday paint a pretty grim picture with the government borrowing more than expected in October and retail sales falling sharply at the start... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) While the recent pace of transactions and house price growth is unlikely to be sustained over the coming months, we doubt it will slow by as much as some sentiment indicators suggest. But by crimping... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2025 Preview We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts. That is... 5th November 2025 · 27 mins read
Bonds Focus Will Gilts remain the sick man of the bond market? We think long-dated Gilt yields will fall over the next year, ensuring they no longer remain an outlier in the G7. That’s mainly because we expect inflation to fall sharply in 2026 and allow the Bank... 13th November 2025 · 21 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus How could the Budget influence UK housing? Tax rises of about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, mostly for households and potentially on property, would be a headwind for housing activity and prices, particularly at the top end of the... 5th November 2025 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget 2025 Checklist This checklist helps clients track the policies and forecasts announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12:30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 26th November. Read our Previews here. We will send a Rapid... 24th November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mansion tax may not be as big as previously feared An average annual council tax surcharge in the Budget on 26 th November of possibly around £2,000 for owners of the most expensive homes may be only a modest drag on activity and prices at the top end... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by... 27th October 2025 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What if Starmer and Reeves are replaced? The government's vulnerability will make the job of stabilising the public finances and boosting economic growth more difficult. It also raises the risk of an altogether worse outcome – a fiscal... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update What could trigger a fiscal crisis in the UK? Many of the conditions which have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. This does not mean a fiscal crisis in the UK is imminent or inevitable. The missing ingredient is a trigger. If a... 5th September 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget 2025 Checklist This checklist helps clients track the policies and forecasts announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12:30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 26th November. Read our Previews here. We will send a Rapid... 24th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the AI and fiscal concerns roiling markets Equity markets remain under pressure even after positive news on both AI demand and the US labour market. A renewed sell-off in Japan’s bond market isn’t helping matters. Meanwhile, we think the UK... 24th November 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Reeves and Bailey play conflicting parts in policy pantomime Raising taxes in next Wednesday’s Budget a month before Christmas day will make the Chancellor look like Scrooge. But we now think that, due to the weaker news on activity and inflation in recent... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mansion tax may not be as big as previously feared An average annual council tax surcharge in the Budget on 26 th November of possibly around £2,000 for owners of the most expensive homes may be only a modest drag on activity and prices at the top end... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2025) November’s flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth is unlikely to snapback in Q4 and showed that services price pressures eased sharply. With what is set to be a big tax-raising Budget on Wednesday next... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The last major economic releases before the Budget next Wednesday paint a pretty grim picture with the government borrowing more than expected in October and retail sales falling sharply at the start... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) While the recent pace of transactions and house price growth is unlikely to be sustained over the coming months, we doubt it will slow by as much as some sentiment indicators suggest. But by crimping... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
