Possible tax rises a further headwind to housing

Due to our view that lingering fiscal concerns will mean gilt yields and therefore mortgage rates will fall by less than we previously thought, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by 3.5% in 2026 (5.0% previously) and by 3.0% in 2027 (3.5% previously). More tax hikes in the Budget in November, potentially on property, may further reduce house price growth over the next two years.

We will be hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 9am GMT on Tuesday 4^th November to discuss how tax rises in the Budget on 26^th November could influence the UK housing market. (Register here.)