Strong AI-related business investment and resilient consumer spending means we now expect growth to average near-3% in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited evidence of tariffs on consumer prices will give the Fed confidence to continue lowering interest rates. However, given weaker labour force growth will limit any rise in the unemployment rate, and since we expect price pressures in the services sector to keep overall inflation above target, we’ve pencilled in only 75bp of further easing over the next year.
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