Wage growth should pick up across second half The slump in wage growth in May largely reflected a plunge in volatile bonus payments and we still expect base pay growth to accelerate further. According to the preliminary estimate, wage growth slowed from …
7th July 2025
There may be little to stand in the way of further gains in the S&P 500 this summer, provided today’s enactment of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is followed next week by a market-friendly decision on tariffs and the upcoming earnings season doesn’t spring …
4th July 2025
The US dollar has stabilised to a degree this week after another solid non-farm payrolls report generated a bit of a rebound in US interest rate expectations. The bigger picture remains that the dollar is under pressure on account of both the perception …
SARB’s lower inflation target proposal looks close A backdrop of subdued price pressures and declining inflation expectations strengthen the argument that a lower inflation target could bring even deeper interest cuts onto the table. Reserve Bank Governor …
The May trade release underscored the difficulties facing exporters. On the face of it the data were positive, as exports rose by 1.1% while imports fell by 1.6% m/m. This was off the back of a grim April when the trade deficit widened to $7.6bn, however, …
Chile: communist scores surprise primary win The positive market reaction to the victory for communist candidate, Jeannette Jara, in the Chilean governing coalition’s presidential primary election seems surprising at first sight. The peso is up by c.1% …
Muddled guidance in Poland, but further cuts likely The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut interest rates by 25bp at its meeting on Wednesday was a dovish surprise to most analysts who had expected policy to be left unchanged, although …
On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including: What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff pause …
A rate cut at the ECB’s meeting on 24 th July seemed off the table only a few weeks ago, as energy prices had spiked due to the Israel-Iran conflict and ECB President Lagarde had stressed after June’s meeting that the Bank was in a “good position” on …
Surfing the waves of OPEC+ supply The sharp drop back in the risk premium in oil prices in the aftermath of the Israel-Iran ceasefire means that oil market fundamentals have snapped back into focus over the past week or so, particularly with the imminent …
Today (Friday 4 th July) marks the one-year anniversary of the government’s election victory. But on Wednesday this week it looked like there was a chance that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, wasn’t going reach the milestone after the Prime Minister …
Key questions left unanswered The trade agreement announced this week between the US and Vietnam, which imposes tariffs of 20% on Vietnam’s exports to the US (along with 40% for re-routed goods), leaves many questions unanswered. Not least how will …
Construction activity improves on back of housing market The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the fourth consecutive month in June to 48.8, a six-month high. The increase was driven by the housing component, which jumped from 45.1 in May to 50.7 in …
Strong monsoon would boost economy The southwest monsoon this week fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif (monsoon) harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the second …
But China is less exposed than one might think The full details of the US-China trade “deal” that was signed last week still haven’t been made public. But the US has rolled back some measures against China in recent days, including its export controls on …
A cut remains more likely than not There is a growing sense amongst most observers that the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 8 th July. Indeed, markets are pricing in a whopping 95% chance of that outcome. And …
Japan back in the doghouse The temporary pause on the 24% “reciprocal” tariff Trump imposed on imports from Japan in April is due to expire next week. As things stand, a deal with Japan looks unlikely and it’s possible that Japan will face even higher …
Lift in household spending not as strong as it seems The strong pickup in household spending in May is likely overstating the momentum behind private consumption. As a result, we don’t think it will stand in the way of the RBA loosening policy settings …
With the House of Representatives today passing the Senate’s bigger version of the budget reconciliation, the Republicans appear to have met President Trump’s timeline – to have the bill reach his desk for signing by the July 4 th Independence Day …
3rd July 2025
The big 0.8% m/m fall in Nationwide house prices in June suggests that the housing market is still struggling to recover from both the stamp duty-induced lull and the weak economy. While some leading indicators suggest that a turnaround in the housing …
High income growth and immigration are likely to continue to drive increases in house prices in Spain over the coming years. Demand will be further boosted by the recent fall in mortgage interest rates. Meanwhile, investment in dwellings is likely to grow …
Another robust US payrolls report supports our view that the FOMC will remain on hold this year and, in turn, our forecast for Treasury yields and the dollar to rebound over the coming months. Today’s June US non-farm payrolls report came in stronger than …
Protests have erupted again in Kenya recently, bringing violence and instability, and highlighting that the government lacks the political capital to repair the fragile fiscal position. With international borrowing costs prohibitively high, financing …
With the House seemingly on the cusp of passing the Senate’s revised budget reconciliation bill, the House looks set to support larger fiscal deficits over the next 10 years than it originally supported. The CBO estimated that the Senate bill would add …
Saudi current account deficit widens, FDI struggles Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit widened at the start of the year and is likely to deteriorate further as oil export receipts decline. This won’t cause any major macro problems yet, but it …
Service sector not firing on all cylinders, but holding up The rebound in the ISM services index in June is broadly consistent with our view that economic growth will slow rather than collapse in the second half of the year. While the prices paid index …
Whatever transpires in EU-US trade talks next week – deal, no-deal or an extension – tensions over transatlantic trade relations are likely to persist throughout President Trump’s second administration. What will happen to the baseline tariff? With the …
The government has implemented some good policies in its first year, but it has undermined the resulting one-off boost to real GDP in the coming years with a few missteps. And the possible permanent boost to GDP growth in the medium-term is small and far …
Exports weaker than they look While the headline export number for May shows significant improvement from a grim April, this was mostly driven by volatile gold exports, where non-mineral product exports declined in the month. Exports to the US continued …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Labour market healthy but gains again narrow The 147,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June was reassuring after the fall in the ADP measure of employment reported yesterday. A …
After one of the most tumultuous half-years in recent memory, what risks and opportunities lie ahead for portfolio managers in global macro and markets in the second half of 2025? How will evolving US economic policy shape returns? And will the volatility …
We think Trump’s tariffs will cause real goods trade to fall by around 1% in the next two years, both by introducing frictions into the trading system and by causing global demand to weaken. But a lot of the fall in US imports from China will be offset by …
We still think gilts will rally over the rest of this year even if fiscal concerns don’t entirely abate, as the Bank of England cuts interest rates by more than investors seem to expect. But concerns about debt levels and a dovish central bank could be a …
Gulf non-oil sectors end Q2 on a stronger note, but weakness ahead June’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed a strong outturn for the Gulf’s non-oil sectors despite the coinciding escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict. Tensions have since eased, but …
Soft inflation print points to July rate cut The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in June, to 35.0%, supports our view that the central bank will restart its easing later this month. We maintain our forecast for the one-week repo rate to be …
This page had been updated with additional analysis. Inflation rises, but will remain very weak this year Headline inflation rose slightly in Switzerland in June, but we expect it will remain around zero, or just below, for the rest of the year. …
The fact that the RBA isn’t cutting interest rates during a housing downturn won’t limit the rebound in house prices, but the extremely stretched level of affordability will do so. Even though we expect interest rates to fall by more than most expect, the …
Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they have to follow. Instead, the key lesson for other …
2nd July 2025
How are signs of tariffs-induced inflation shaping Fed deliberations? Are White House attacks a consideration on when to move next on rates? For the ECB, could still-hot services inflation slow or even bring an early end to its easing cycle? And how will …
We are forecasting a slower recovery in APAC real estate markets than in any other cycle, the extent of which would also make the region a global laggard. Within the region, we also expect a further rise in Australian office yields and a huge 20% …
Real household disposable income growth is now slowing, but we still expect household consumption will accelerate to around 1.8% y/y on average over 2025-27 as households start to run down the savings they have built up. That will help all-retail rents …
NBP cuts by 25bp, with two further cuts likely this year The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 5.00%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). With inflation likely to fall back …
The Taiwan dollar has appreciated sharply against the US dollar in recent months but, for a host of reasons, the central bank seems now to be less tolerant of further currency strength. Even without intervention, we think that the currency will give up …
Given the limited progress in concluding trade negotiations since Liberation Day, there is a risk that huge tariffs will be imposed on 9 th July after the 90-day pause expires. We suspect that further last-minute concessions will be made to permit …
Overview – The economy faces a period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1% annualised on average for the rest of 2025. Tariff effects …
Our views on the outlook for monetary policy in Latin America have been on the hawkish side for some time, but we now think that there’s scope for interest rates in many countries in the region to come down by more than most expect. The key exception to …
The gradual recovery in property values underway in Europe is unlikely to be pushed off track by tariff developments this year, but we think values still have further to fall in the US and APAC as they adjust to the higher interest rate environment. …
We expect Treasuries to struggle over the rest of the year, despite their recent strong run. At the time of writing, Treasuries’ weeks-long rally seemed to have hit pause . One trigger seemed to be Fed Chair Powell’s comments at the ECB’s Sintra …
With activity having rebounded strongly in Q1 and headline inflation firming up, the RBNZ is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.25% next week. However, we’re not convinced that the economy has turned the corner. And with the output gap set to remain …
