Given that “FOMO” appears to be creeping into the gold market, it has become even harder to objectively value gold. In our view, gold prices seem likely to grind higher in nominal terms over the next couple of years, but the pace of the current rally will …
8th October 2025
We're hosting a special in-person roundtable event at our London office on Wednesday 12th November to discuss if the Chancellor’s second Budget on 26th November will be as big and as bad for the economy as her first, and if it will dampen or ignite the …
NBR to stay on hold despite weak economy The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, and despite signs that the economy is struggling in response to recent fiscal tightening, we think interest rates will be left on …
The global economy will remain relatively resilient in the face of mounting headwinds. However, growth will become increasingly unbalanced, with the US leading the way while Europe and China struggle. As we anticipated in our Q2 Global Economic Outlook , …
We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, but we don’t think that it will do much to raise growth prospects elsewhere. Meanwhile, we forecast …
The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI inflation will fall further than most expect next year …
We expect the UK stock market will continue to underperform its more tech-heavy US counterpart as enthusiasm for AI continues to grow. What’s more, if the bubble in AI were to burst, we think there is no guarantee that the large gap in valuations between …
The ongoing investigation into corruption in the Philippines brings the risk of further protests over the coming months. So long as any unrest is limited in scale and duration, the economic and financial market impact is likely to be limited. The bigger …
The RBNZ today dealt the New Zealand dollar another blow, but we think it will recover before long and that the Australian dollar will stop falling. The same can’t be said, though, for the European currencies that have struggled alongside the kiwi and …
A pause, not an end to the easing cycle In a surprise move, Thailand’s central bank (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. However, it also signalled that this was unlikely to mark the end of the easing cycle. With growth set to remain weak …
German industry still in deep trouble The slump in German industrial production in August was partly due to temporary car plant closures for the summer holidays, which should prove temporary. But that wasn’t the whole story and previous signs of a …
GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with underlying inflation set to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, we expect the Bank to resume its tightening cycle in January and lift its policy rate …
Inflation set to fall significantly in the coming months CPIF inflation edged down in September and is likely to fall much more significantly next year – to around just 1%. Despite that, we think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate on hold for the …
While the economic case for tighter monetary policy remains intact, we suspect that the Bank of Japan will use the pressure by Japan’s incoming government as an opportunity to delay rate hikes until January. Just one week ago, the OIS markets thought that …
RBNZ will lower rates to 2.25% The RBNZ signalled that further reductions are on the cards when it slashed the overnight cash rate by 50bp today and we think it will eventually lower rates to 2.25%. The RBNZ’s decision to cut the cash rate from 3.0% to …
Mainland China’s office market has been in a prolonged downturn since 2018 as structural headwinds, including weak economic growth, cautious corporate hiring, and rampant new supply have kept vacancy high and rising. We expect this pattern to persist, …
Wage growth will remain strong enough to prompt BoJ tightening The sharp slowdown in wage growth in August largely reflects the end of the summer bonus season and regular earnings growth seems to be settling around 2%-2.5%. According to the preliminary …
While long-term government bond yields have stabilised today, political developments in France and Japan over recent days highlight how fiscal uncertainty continues to put upward pressure on long-term bond yields. We think steeper yield curves are here to …
7th October 2025
CBK’s easing cycle has further to run The Central Bank of Kenya cut interest rates today, by 25bp, to its lowest rate in more than two years at 9.25% and, with inflation likely to stay contained, we think there’s scope for rates to fall to a below …
Trade deficit widens again as additional US tariffs announced The worsening in Canada’s goods trade balance in August was for all the wrong reasons, with exports falling and imports rising. Admittedly, unwrought gold played a notable role in flows in …
The euro has had a stellar year so far, holding onto most of the gains that it made following Germany’s fiscal announcement in March and the US tariff shock in April. But we think it is more likely to weaken than strengthen over the coming quarters as the …
Upcoming EPC requirements, coupled with reduced occupier demand due to remote work, mean investors are shunning secondary offices, triggering a sharp decline in capital values. Our new dashboard on office EPCs across major cities will therefore be an …
The state election in Bihar in November will be the first since the deterioration in relations between India and the US. Bihar also happens to be one of India’s most agrarian states. A strong performance for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP (as part of the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Prospect of higher taxes are weighing on the housing market The fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in September was at odds with September’s 0.5% m/m rise on the …
The prolonged underperformance of New Zealand’s economy has contributed to the Kiwi dollar being the worst-performing G10 currency last month, even as the Australian dollar was the best-performer within this group. However, as the RBNZ’s aggressive easing …
An improvement in corporate governance is a key reason behind the structural pick-up in corporate profit margins over the past two decades. However, even if corporate governance was improved further, we doubt that this alone would suffice to close the …
The latest political developments in Paris underline that France is heading for some kind of fiscal crisis which in turn means the risk premium on its debt is likely to rise in the coming year or two. The fallout for the private sector should not be huge, …
6th October 2025
The slump in the yen that accompanied Sanae Takaichi’s unexpected victory in Saturday’s LDP leadership election helps to explain why the stock market in Japan soared on Monday. But there are other reasons why equities there are likely to flourish under …
The oil market has largely shrugged off the damage from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure so far. That said, the damage to Russian refinery and export capacity so far, and prospect of more meaningful disruption, suggests that the …
We don’t think the AI boom in equities has run its course, despite how far it has already come. We therefore expect the US stock market, in particular, to charge ahead over the rest of this year and next, with other tech-heavy markets – such as China’s – …
With the volatility surrounding tariff front-running seemingly in the past, global goods trade appears to be slowing. But the latest official and survey data support our view that this slowdown will not morph into a slump. And while rerouting has offset …
Political protests have surged across Asia this year, fuelled by frustration with corruption, inequality, and job insecurity. While the immediate economic and market impact is likely to be limited, a greater risk lies in governments’ responses – often …
The victory for the populist eurosceptic ANO party in the Czech parliamentary election over the weekend will likely result in looser fiscal policy, which will support GDP growth and cement the central bank's recent hawkish stance. The poor showing for …
It wasn’t meant to turn out like this. Only a few months ago, when Donald Trump swept back into the White House, the story was one of fading US exceptionalism. The consensus view was that tariffs, tighter immigration rules and unpredictable policymaking …
Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt’s PMI dropped back last month although easing price …
High interest rates weigh on construction activity The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the second consecutive month in September to 46.2, from 45.5 in August. But that is still firmly in contractionary territory. At the sector level the commercial …
The resignation of yet another French prime minister, this time after just 27 days, hammers home how the fractured parliament is making it nearly impossible to pass a budget that reduces the fiscal deficit. This strengthens our conviction that with …
Vietnam’s economy remained strong in the third quarter, and we expect it to continue posting healthy growth rates ahead as the hit from US tariffs proves manageable. GDP growth remained strong in Q3, at 8.2% y/y, while the outturn for the previous quarter …
Note: We've pushed back our forecast for the next BoJ rate hike from October to January. (See here .) We doubt that incoming PM Sanae Takaichi will prevent the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates altogether though her victory makes it less likely …
The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s September meeting emphasised upside inflation risks. Our sense is that these risks won’t be realised, and so the Bank will gradually come round to our view that the economy will benefit from another …
3rd October 2025
The dollar has weakened a little this week on the back of some softer US employment and activity data. The US government shutdown does not appear to have made much impact, consistent with previous such episodes. That said, downside risks for the greenback …
Democrats and Republicans remain at loggerheads over cuts to health care, raising the likelihood that the government shutdown drags on for some time. We discussed the economic implications here . With the release of official data for September delayed and …
Our new Global Economic Outlook has just been published – and it makes for a striking contrast. In the US, the drag from Trump’s policy agenda looks set to be outweighed by an AI-driven investment boom that may already be lifting productivity. In Europe, …
Tinubu talks up progress, but fiscal concerns linger President Tinubu marked Nigeria’s Independence Day talking up growth and balance of payment improvements, but fiscal progress must accelerate if Nigeria is to meet its economic potential. President …
Survey highlights pressure on both sides of Fed’s dual mandate The ISM services survey will provide little comfort for Fed officials, with the prices paid index edging up again despite weakness in the activity and employment indices. Nonetheless, given …
BanRep: hawks still in the majority The hawkish tone accompanying the Colombian central bank (BanRep)’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% at its meeting on Tuesday supports our view that there’s much less room for easing in Colombia than …
ANO poised to come out on top in Czechia The Czech parliamentary election kicks off today, with opposition populist party ANO set to gain the most number of seats. Depending on its actual vote share, the only way it may be able to form a majority in …
This week’s announcement of the small upward revisions to real GDP growth and productivity growth was welcome news. And in Q2 itself, the shape of growth was a little more encouraging. (See here .) Even so, it was disappointing that consumer spending …
