OPEC+ meeting, Saudi 2026 Budget, MENA’s debt splurge

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is likely to see the group agree to a further unwinding of oil production cuts in November, with some suggestions it could be one of the most aggressive moves yet. Capacity constraints in many non-Gulf members mean that any hike is unlikely to be fully realized but, even so, it would reinforce our view that a period of lower oil prices lies in store in 2026. There are already signs that this year’s drop in oil prices this year is straining budget positions in some countries, with Saudi’s deficit now projected to be more than double what was targeted. Fiscal consolidation efforts look set to be stepped up over 2026-27. Meanwhile, a number of countries have issued international debt in recent weeks, including Kuwait where the government looks set loosen regardless of what happens to oil prices.