The full proposals for China’s upcoming Five-Year Plan have just been published. These make it clear that fiscal policy will play a key role in the leadership’s efforts to lift the consumption-to-GDP ratio. As a result, the share of fiscal spending devoted to investment, which is currently at a three-decade high, should start to drop back over the coming years. But the wider policy agenda will limit how quickly this happens, and it will take a long time for the imbalances in China’s economy to be fully addressed.
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