China Economics Update Childbirth subsidies a small step toward rebalancing The Chinese authorities are seemingly on the cusp of rolling out nationwide childbirth subsidies. While the proposed scale of the program is too small to have much near-term impact on the birth rate... 8th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam settles with Trump, with China again a target Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC turns less dovish despite deflation concerns One might have thought that fading concern about the exchange rate and growing concern about deflation would provide the perfect moment for the PBOC to step up monetary easing. But the Bank’s latest... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Presales ban wouldn’t support home prices much China is moving toward ending its decades-old system of “presales” for newly-built residential property. This would reduce risks for homebuyers. But hopes that the change would provide a material... 1st July 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Limited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are low A deal with China is done, according to President Trump, but its scope seems to be limited to easing some recent non-tariff restrictions, including China’s rare earth export controls. The wider trade... 11th June 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Rerouting will ease tariff blow to Chinese exports Our new estimates based on trade in thousands of individual products suggest that rerouting helped to offset around half of the fall in China’s exports to the US during the first Trump trade war. If... 29th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2025) After an improvement in March, China’s economy looks to have slowed again last month, with firms and households turning more cautious due to the trade war. While the recent US-China tariff de... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property prices won't recover this decade While sales volumes have picked up since the start of last year, we expect residential property prices in Hong Kong to continue to fall until Fed cuts resume. Even then, given the structural headwinds... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 8th July 2025) · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Gauging the fallout in China’s labour market Chinese policymakers will probably find ways to keep the published unemployment rate close to their “around 5.5%” target for this year. But this may mask broader weakness in the labour market as a... 7th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Monetary easing alone won’t cut it Chinese policymakers have announced a raft of new monetary easing measures. These will help to shore up growth at the margin. But any boost to credit demand will be modest and today’s moves are no... 7th May 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Can China's domestic consumers take the place of US ones? Retail sales in China are more than ten times larger than the country’s exports to the US. As such, domestic goods consumption would only need to rise by a few percent over the next couple of years to... 22nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
