India Economics Update Is Trump pushing India into China’s arms? The deterioration in Indo-US relations appears to have expedited New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing, as highlighted by Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to China in seven years last... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The implications of Mexican tariffs on China Mexico’s plans, reported by Bloomberg, to put tariffs on imports from China (and possibly other parts of Asia) target many of the government’s goals – appeasing the US, mending the public finances and... 28th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How rising defence spending will impact Asia Defence spending across Asia is set to rise over the coming years, driven in part by increased pressure from the US for its allies to shoulder more of their own security costs. While the overall boost... 27th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is Trump the mortar for the BRICS? President Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies has led to growing efforts within the bloc to present a united front in the face of US protectionism. But divisions between the... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s deflation problem isn’t going away Hopes that recent data show China starting to emerge from deflation are likely to be disappointed. The recovery in core goods inflation last month mostly reflects the impact of government subsidies... 11th August 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a less dovish tone compared with the previous meeting on economic affairs back in April and stops short of committing to any additional monetary or... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China won’t loosen its grip on critical mineral exports While China’s June trade data showed a pick-up in exports of rare earth elements (REEs), shipments remain well below pre-Liberation Day levels. A further warming of relations with the US could lead to... 23rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs increasingly absorbing China’s surpluses US tariffs appear to have given renewed impetus to Chinese producers’ efforts to export to emerging markets, resulting in a widening trade surplus with the EM world in the first half of the year. But... 22nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Urban redevelopment plans don’t tick stimulus box This week’s Central Urban Work Conference didn’t deliver the revival of the shantytown redevelopment scheme that helped stabilise China’s housing market a decade ago and that some had been hoping for... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU tariffs not stopping China’s EV exporters Auto exporters in China have adapted to the EU’s tariffs on EVs by lowering export prices and focusing on vehicles that are not subject to tariffs. Even if trade restrictions were to remain in place... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Childbirth subsidies a small step toward rebalancing China has just confirmed an annual childcare allowance for parents with children below 3 years old. The sums involved are too small to have a near-term impact on the birth rate or consumption. But the... 8th July 2025 (Updated 28th July 2025) · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam settles with Trump, with China again a target Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC turns less dovish despite deflation concerns One might have thought that fading concern about the exchange rate and growing concern about deflation would provide the perfect moment for the PBOC to step up monetary easing. But the Bank’s latest... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
