Asia Economics Update Is Asia running on empty with LNG? Asian economies vary in how dependent they are on LNG from the Gulf – for China and Japan, dependence is low, while Pakistan, Taiwan and Korea have much higher exposure. Low domestic inventories leave... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s rebalancing conundrum A major policy push to boost domestic demand would both reflate China’s economy and reduce its large current account surplus, which is a source of tension with other countries. But this looks unlikely... 4th March 2026 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update How to interpret China’s budget China’s government will lay out its fiscal plan for 2026 at the National People’s Congress on Thursday. While the headline deficit target and special bond quota figures will get the most attention... 4th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Iran shock and Asia As net energy importers, most economies in Asia are worse off and facing higher inflation as a result of the attacks on Iran. But oil prices would have to rise much further than they have so far – to... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update China’s tariff respite may last some time The past week’s shifts in US tariffs have put a large number of Chinese manufacturers back on a level playing field in the US market with other non-US producers. These lower rates look likely to... 26th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update New US tariff regime will rejig Asian electronics trade Trump’s new 15% global tariff rate reduces the tariff burden on most Asian countries, but the biggest winner is China. It still faces a higher tariff than countries elsewhere in the region, but the... 23rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Can China’s trade surplus rise further? China’s goods trade surplus can’t increase indefinitely. But there’s little sign that policy shifts – either within China or in its trading partners – will prevent the surplus from widening in the... 12th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Signs of a gold bubble in China point to higher volatility The growing use of leverage and futures trading to gain exposure to gold in China suggests that the recent increase in Chinese gold demand is more consistent with a speculative bubble inflating rather... 12th February 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China’s labour market is on the mend Our China Labour Market Indicator has climbed back above its long-run average recently, signalling an improving employment backdrop. A key driver has been stronger labour demand among exporters, who... 4th February 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Limited monetary easing won’t boost growth The PBOC has announced plans to cut interest rates on structural policy tools, and suggested broader-based policy rate cuts are on the horizon. But we doubt rate cuts will be enough to drive up loan... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC signals limited stimulus but some rebalancing The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggests that monetary and fiscal policy will remain supportive next year but that any additional easing will be modest. Instead, the focus... 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Trump eases the hardware bottlenecks on Chinese AI China’s leadership has spurned Nvidia’s knee-capped H20 chips. But it may be willing to let its firms buy the more powerful H200 chips that President Trump is now offering. This would allow China to... 9th December 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo signals further easing in 2026 The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a relatively dovish tone, suggesting that more fiscal support and monetary easing is on the cards next year. The leadership continues to highlight... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
