The broad-based strength in October’s ISM services survey was overshadowed by the increase in the prices paid index to a three-year high, leaving it consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation rising back above 4% in the new year. Nonetheless, with the ongoing government shutdown meaning the Fed likely won’t receive October or November’s official data releases until just before its December meeting at the earliest, we still think the FOMC will view the balance of risks as favouring another 25bp rate cut.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services