US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2026) Gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment were once again the main drivers behind moves in the trade deficit in January, while limited revisions to preceding months’ figures suggest little change to... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Feb. 2026) The modest 0.22% m/m gain in the core CPI in February is not as good news as it first seems, with our preliminary estimate pointing to a 0.42% gain in the core PCE deflator. That would maintain the... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb 2026) Even allowing for the strikes by 31,000 Kaiser Permanente health care workers in California and Hawaii and 15,000 nurses in NYC, the 92,000 decline in payroll employment in February, combined with the... 6th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The breakdown of January retail sales raises some doubts about whether the weakness was primarily due to the harsh winter weather, with sales of building material & garden equipment unexpectedly doing... 6th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Productivity (Q4 2025) The productivity data released today confirm that, thanks to the large negative benchmark payroll revisions for 2025, productivity growth was stronger than originally estimated over the first three... 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Feb. 2026) The broad-based strength in the February ISM Services Index, along with the recent improvement in the manufacturing index, suggests the underlying economy is reaccelerating. Indeed, it leaves our... 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2026) The essentially unchanged level of the ISM Manufacturing Index in February, after the prior month’s surge, suggests that the domestic factory sector is benefiting from stronger global conditions tied... 2nd March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jan 2026) The 0.5% m/m increase in final demand PPI in January is another illustration that elevated price inflation remains a threat. Excluding food and energy prices, which were pulled down by a 5.5% m/m... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Trump hikes new global tariff rate to 15% In a social media post this morning, President Trump announced that he intends to raise his new global tariff rate from the 10% rate announced yesterday, to the maximum 15% allowed under Section 122... 21st February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Trump imposes alternative 10% global tariff under Section 122 In a hastily-arranged press conference to respond to the Supreme Court’s ruling that his IEEPA-related reciprocal tariffs were illegal, President Trump has announced that he will instead be imposing a... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response SC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal In a 6-3 vote, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump was wrong to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a justification for imposing his far-reaching reciprocal tariffs... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2025) The government shutdown ended up being a much bigger drag on the economy than the Treasury’s data had suggested, with fourth-quarter GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualised. Federal expenditure... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Dec 2025) The usual suspects were behind the widening in the trade deficit at the end of last year: gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment. December’s trade figures leave our Q4 GDP growth estimate at a solid 3... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jan 27-28) The minutes of the Fed’s late January policy meeting are arguably a little more hawkish than expected with “several participants indicat[ing] that they would have supported a two-sided description of... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jan 2026) January’s stronger production data were accompanied by downward revisions to previous months, limiting the good news. However, signs of broadening strength in production last month paired with the... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2025) The fall in durable goods orders in December reflected a drag from volatile commercial aircraft orders, whereas core orders (ex. transport) continued their recent good run, supported by the AI... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
