US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep. 2026) The softer payroll gain and tick up in the unemployment rate in September is not enough to spoil the image of a labour market which is broadly performing well, though it has helped trim investors’... 2nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index to 54.5 in September, paired with the downward revision to the flash estimate of its S&P Global counterpart, gives a slightly less favourable impression... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug. 2026) The data dump today shows that core price pressures are slightly less firm than feared and provides some support to our view that the Fed will pause in October. Nonetheless, with economic activity... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Aug. 2026) The broad-based decline in manufacturing output in August suggests the factory sector may be on a weaker footing than we had previously thought, particularly as this does not capture the latest rise... 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Sep 2026) The Fed appears to be on board with our view that its hike today will be followed by one more later this year. While the latest Summary of Economic Projections implies that the Fed may be content with... 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Aug. 2026) The broad-based strength in retail sales in August brightens the picture on the US consumer after an underwhelming couple of months, and leaves our third-quarter GDP growth estimate just shy of 4%... 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in August will result in another above-target-consistent gain in the core PCE deflator and means the Fed looks set to hike next week. 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2026) The key components of the PPI that feed into the core PCE deflator were fairly strong in August, raising the chance of the Fed hiking interest rates next week. Admittedly, that still depends on the... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Aug 2026) Even the most committed dove would struggle to find much in the August employment report to justify keeping interest rates unchanged, with the surge in payrolls driven by strength across the non... 4th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Aug 2026) The rise in the ISM services index in August suggests that the prior strength in July was not only due to temporary effects from the FIFA World Cup, and leaves our weighted-average ISM index... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jul 2026) The sharp widening of the trade deficit in July was primarily due to sharp rebounds in AI-related goods imports, pouring cold water on the idea that the AI buildout may already be losing momentum and... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Aug 2026) The ISM Manufacturing survey pours some cold water on the idea that the manufacturing sector is beginning to boom, but it does at least remain consistent with growing output. The commentary... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole & Preliminary Benchmark Revisions Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium delivered a far clearer – and hawkish – message than his last press conference appearance, with Warsh arguing that the recent softer price... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jul. 2026), GDP (Q2 2026, 2nd est.) & Durable Goods Orders (Jul. 2026) The slightly above-target-consistent rise in the core PCE deflator in July won’t be enough to convince the Fed that they’ll need to hike rates as soon as September. But with the annual rate still at 3... 26th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jul. 28-29) The minutes of the Fed’s July meeting confirmed that the rate-setting committee had become more hawkish since the June meeting but, with the inflation, labour market and activity data since then all... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jul. 2026) The small rise in manufacturing output in July told much of the same story of late, with production of high-tech products amid the AI buildout sustaining modest growth in an industrial sector being... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
