US Rapid Response US Employment Report (May 2026) The third consecutive consensus-beating gain in non-farm payrolls in May should further reduce concern among the FOMC about the downside risks to the labour market, thereby making it even harder for... 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2026) Strong services price pressures will add to Fed’s concerns The rise in the ISM Services Index in May, together with the latest rise in the manufacturing index, suggests that the economy is enjoying... 3rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2026) ISM confirms manufacturing sector in cyclical upswing The rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index to a four-year high in May suggests that the sector continues to hold up well, probably because the boost... 1st June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Apr 2026) The softer-than-expected 0.24% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator in April buys the Fed a bit of time as it waits to see how higher oil prices will feed through to broader inflation pressures... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Apr. 2026) The small fall in housing starts in April masks a weaker underlying picture, with a surge in volatile multi-family starts offsetting a material weakening in single-family groundbreaking, albeit from a... 21st May 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Apr 28-29) The minutes from the Fed’s late April meeting were even more hawkish than expected based on the initial post meeting communications, which had been largely unchanged despite some dissents. The most... 20th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Apr 2026) The 0.6% m/m rise in manufacturing output in April was partly due to a rebound in the transportation equipment sector, but there are also signs that the AI buildout is beginning to support activity... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr 2026) The April retail sales data were a little softer than we expected but still lead us to estimate that real consumption edged up by 0.1% m/m last month. Moreover, the upward revisions to control group... 14th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Apr 2026) April’s stronger-than-expected PPI figures have little bearing on our estimate for a 0.30% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in April. While still above the target-consistent pace, that is not as... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Apr 2026) The 0.4% m/m gain in core CPI in April was largely due to the expected jump in owners’ equivalent rent and another gain in airfares, rather than reflecting a significant broadening of inflation... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Apr. 2026) The solid 115,000 rise in payroll employment in April and still-muted 4.3% unemployment rate add to the reasons for the Fed to remain on hold for now. The reduced reliance of hiring on healthcare in... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Section 122 Tariff Ruling The narrow Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against the Trump administration’s 10% Section 122 tariffs does not have any immediate implications for the US effective tariff rate, but it raises... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Apr. 2026) The unchanged level of the ISM Services Prices Paid Index at 70.7 in April is not the worst outcome, given its manufacturing counterpart surged to a four-year high of 84.6 in the same month. Even so... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar. 2026) The modest widening of the trade deficit in March, despite another solid rise in goods exports, was less about insatiable AI-driven demand for computer hardware than in recent months, and more about a... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1 2026) The rebound in first-quarter GDP growth was partly driven by the reversal of the earlier government shutdown drag, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (FSPFP) also expanded at a solid 2.5%... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Apr 2026) While leaving interest rates unchanged today, the Fed maintained its easing bias, reinforcing our view that its next move is more likely to be a cut than a hike. That said, the Fed's communications... 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
