US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1) The 0.3% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP was entirely due to a pre-tariff 41.3% annualised surge in imports, with net exports subtracting a massive 4.8% points from GDP. This surge now appears... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US advance economic indicators (Mar) The advance economic indicators revealed a massive surge in consumer goods imports in March, as firms raced to beat the imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April. As a result, we now estimate... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Mar 2025) The jump in durable goods orders in March was driven entirely by a large rise in orders received by Boeing. Excluding transport, core goods orders flatlined. With the post-strike boost from the... 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Mar 2025) The fall in industrial production in March was not as bad as it looks given that it was driven solely by a large weather-related drop in utilities output. Manufacturing enjoyed a strong first quarter... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar 2025) A presumably temporary pre-tariff surge in motor vehicle sales drove the strong 1.4% m/m increase in retail sales in March. But there was also a big 3.3% m/m rebound in building materials sales and a... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Tariff exemptions: Trump does Tim Apple a solid The tariff exemptions reported in the dead of night by the CBP on various electronics goods, including smartphones, semiconductors, electronic circuits and TVs, represent a partial de-escalation of... 12th April 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr. 2025) The further fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April, along with the rise in both one- and five-year inflation expectations, suggests that the tariff-related fears which... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Mar. 2025) Following the favourable CPI and PPI data, we estimate that the core PCE deflator rose by a below-target 0.05% m/m in March. Even taking into account a likely upward revision to the rise in February... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The unexpectedly small 0.06% m/m rise in the core CPI in March was partly due to steep falls in hotel prices and airline fares, which reflect both weakening domestic demand and the recent drop in... 10th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Trump folds on tariffs under market pressure Although President Donald Trump was able to resist the stock market sell-off, once the bond market began to weaken too, it was only a matter of time before he folded on his eye-wateringly high tariffs... 9th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2025) The bumper 228,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in March offers some welcome good news amid the escalating global trade war, showing that the labour market remains healthy despite the drag from DOGE-led... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Mar. 2025) The fall in the ISM services index in March shows that the weakness isn’t isolated to the manufacturing sector. Our weighted average ISM index is consistent with the economy contracting, although it... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Feb. 2025) The narrowing of the trade deficit in February was driven by stronger exports, mainly of non-monetary gold, while imports remained at record levels, as businesses continued to rush orders ahead of... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2025) The slight dip in the ISM manufacturing index in March suggests that, rather than triggering a reshoring factory renaissance, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff threats are... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Feb. 2025) The third consecutive above-target gain in core PCE prices in February, of 0.37% m/m, reinforces our view that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this year. Admittedly, officials are likely to... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
