US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (July 2025) July’s surprisingly positive durable goods orders numbers suggests that businesses may be acclimatising to tariff policy uncertainty and upping their investment. Weak capex survey intentions means we... 26th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (July 29-30) The minutes of the Fed’s late-July FOMC meeting reveal that there was no broader support for a rate cut beyond the two formal dissenters – Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Aug 2025) The slump in the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment to a three-month low of 58.6 in August, from 61.7, suggests that households remain very nervous about rising inflation in the wake... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (July 2025) The small decline in industrial production in July was driven by the mining sector. Manufacturing output held up, and more timely survey data points to a small rebound in August. Once again, it is... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jul. 2025) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales in July, paired with the upward revision to May and June’s data, shows households continue to spend in healthy amounts despite the threat of tariffs – especially... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (July 2025) Most of the large upside surprise to core PPI in July was due to a head-scratching increase in margins for wholesalers and retailers. While the data still imply that the core PCE deflator rose by... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) There was another narrative shift for the Fed in the July CPI data, with tariff effects once again barely perceptible but a stronger gain in services prices pointing to another above-target gain in... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Miran a good pick for the Fed President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler as Fed Governor, albeit only on a temporary basis to begin with, is a welcome surprise. Miran is currently the... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jul. 2025) The ISM services survey highlights the challenges for the Fed in the coming months, with the activity and employment indicators weakening even as the prices paid index rose to a new cyclical high. 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jun 2025) The narrowing of the trade deficit was mainly due to a normalisation in pharmaceutical imports and while exports appeared weak, this was primarily due to a fall in gold exports. The big picture is... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul. 2025) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index in July paints a slightly bleaker picture of the sector than is the reality. The rise in the production and new orders sub-indices, along with the fall in the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2025) The weak 73,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, combined with large downward revisions to May and June’s gains and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, will strengthen the case for those on... 1st August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (June 2025) The above-target rise in core PCE prices in June, upward revisions to previous months’ data and the sharp rise in core goods inflation will do little to ease the Fed’s concerns about tariff-driven... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (July 2025) The FOMC made only one major change to its policy statement this month, acknowledging that growth moderated in the first half of the year. While Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman both... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2025) The 3.0% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP overstates the economy’s underlying strength, as it was largely driven by a 30% slump in imports as pre-tariff stockpiling unwound. The more worrying... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
