The modest fall in the ADP payrolls measure in November, coming on the back of a similar message from the Fed’s Beige Book, should be enough to persuade the FOMC to vote for another cut next week. Looking through the month-on-month volatility, however, the broader message from the alternative indicators appears to be that labour market conditions are stable rather than deteriorating markedly. Accordingly, the Fed is still likely to accompany a further cut next week with more hawkish messaging about the prospect for future loosening.
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