Strong growth in exports from Asia in the first half of the year has fuelled talk that, with US tariffs now in place, shipments will fall sharply as tariff front-running ends. But we’re not convinced. Other factors beyond tariff front-running have supported exports, including strong demand for AI-related products and early moves to reorder supply chains. Export growth will slow over the rest of this year and in 2026-27 but, for most countries, it is unlikely to turn into a major drag on GDP growth.
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