Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: limited impact from scrapping two-child policy The abolition of Vietnam’s controversial two-child policy will not lead to a sharp rise in the number of children being born, and will have only a small economic impact. 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Korea afford post-election stimulus? President Lee’s pledge to provide fiscal stimulus would, if implemented, provide a much-needed lift to Korea’s economy. The country’s public finances could easily accommodate a temporary rise in... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect from Korea’s new president Victory for Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) in today’s presidential election in Korea should help bring to an end six months of political turmoil. Boosting the economy and agreeing a trade... 3rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economy struggling but exports holding up The impact of the trade war on Korean exporters has so far been limited. Although exports to the US fell in May, the decline was modest and offset by strong demand from other markets. However, other... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set to cut rates further The dovish tone adopted by the Bank of Korea today, alongside what we think will be continued weakness of the economy suggest that further interest rate cuts are likely in the coming months. 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 11th June 2025) · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Kashmir: old tensions in a new geopolitical context If limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the economy of either country. Pakistan would have more to lose than India from a... 7th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam seems to be riding the tariff wave again Early signs are that Vietnam is doing well as US buyers look to find alternative suppliers outside China. 6th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the drama in Asian FX We see a few reasons to be sceptical about the chances of a broad-based upwards revaluation of Asian currencies, despite recent moves. 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: GDP data tell us little about the economy We pay little attention to the official Indonesia GDP figures, which once again showed growth was unchanged at around 5% last quarter. 5th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia April Manufacturing PMIs The April PMIs for Asia fell sharply, providing the first sign that Trump tariffs are weighing on sentiment in the region. With concerns about growth mounting and inflation worries continuing to ease... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: shrugging off the trade war (for now) Data published for Korea from the past few days suggests the economy remains weak, but that the trade war so far appears to be having a minimal impact. While exports to the US fell, the declines were... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
