Asia Economics Update MAS tightens policy, further moves unlikely Singapore today unexpectedly tightened monetary policy, but the communications from the central bank suggest that further tightening is unlikely in the near term. Although growth should remain strong... 27th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI is lifting Asia’s non-chip manufacturers too The global AI investment boom is delivering a bonanza to electronics manufacturers across Asia well beyond just chipmakers in Korea and Taiwan. 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: solid, but unbalanced growth Korean growth slowed in the second quarter of the year, but still grew by a healthy 0.6% q/q, helped by strong export demand. Domestic demand struggled again, however, and we expect Korea to continue... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update How quickly might Indonesia’s public debt rise? Indonesia is likely to break its 3% of GDP legal ceiling for the fiscal deficit this year. Still, given the low public debt level today, so long as the deficit stayed close to this level it would take... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How high will rates go in Korea? The Bank of Korea today kicked-started its tightening cycle by raising rates by 25bps to 2.75%, and the tone of the central bank’s statement makes clear that further tightening is likely. We now... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to hike rates? The renewed rise in oil prices has cast fresh uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. But one thing that emerges from the latest CPI data is that there are a handful of countries where strong... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update From energy to food: El Niño reshapes inflation risks Despite easing energy-driven inflation pressures, central banks in Asia are unlikely to rush to unwind recent rate hikes given the growing upside risks to food inflation from El Niño. 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: investors lose faith as Prabowo doubles down The latest sharp falls in Indonesia’s financial markets reflect growing concerns that President Prabowo is doubling down on his populist and interventionist approach to policymaking. The central bank... 4th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s booming chip exports mask vulnerabilities Korea’s economy is riding an extraordinary wave of global demand for its AI-related exports and, despite the drag from higher energy prices, we have raised our growth forecasts for this year. But the... 4th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Booming electronics demand offsetting drag from high energy prices The manufacturing PMIs for May suggest that the drag from higher energy prices is being offset by booming electronics demand, although price pressures across the region remain elevated. 1st June 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update A hawkish hold, as Bank of Korea signals rate hikes coming The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, but clearly signalled that rate hikes were coming amid concerns about the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. We have adjusted... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India trip notes – heatwave, rupee, RBI and AI A week spent visiting clients and contacts in Delhi and Mumbai has underscored the extent to which the Middle East conflict is reverberating through the economy. Several of our discussions were... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
