Asia Economics Update Indonesia: external risks no longer loom so large Indonesia’s current account position has improved markedly since the onset of the pandemic and we expect the deficit to stay small over the next couple of years. The rupiah will probably depreciate... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: consumer spending on the mend Consumer spending in Korea rebounded last quarter and should remain strong over the coming year as government stimulus, rate cuts, and rising wages support demand. But the ongoing downturn in the... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (July) The July PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued and we continue to expect activity in Asia’s export-oriented manufacturing sectors to struggle in the coming months. And with inflation... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s legislature could flip behind the president Taiwan’s gridlocked government could secure a legislative majority and freedom to enact its policy goals if recall votes next week go its way. The immediate implications for the economy are limited –... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Indonesia breach its budget deficit limit? Indonesia’s government is cutting spending and considering new taxes as it tries to prevent the budget deficit breaching the 3% of GDP legal limit. An alternative for President Prabowo Subianto would... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: on hold, but more easing to come The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today (at 2.50%), but gave strong hints that the easing cycle still had further to run. With growth set to struggle and inflation... 10th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about deflation in Asia? Outside of China, there is no immediate threat of any other country in Asia falling into a prolonged period of deflation. That said, persistently weak price pressures are likely to remain a worry for... 9th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Trade negotiations to take centre stage for Asia Trump has confirmed that punitive tariffs on Asian countries will take effect on 1 st August unless trade deals are agreed by the end of the month. Despite the urgency, negotiations could prove... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Demographic decline: what Taiwan can learn from Korea Taiwan and Korea face some of the world’s worst demographic headwinds with working-age populations set to shrink by 1% a year over the next decade. Efforts to boost fertility have largely failed, and... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s export success only partly due to rerouting Vietnam’s US-bound exports have surged since the US imposed very high tariffs on imports from China. While the export figures are overstating the benefits to Vietnam’s economy due to a surge in... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam settles with Trump, with China again a target Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Taiwan dollar? The Taiwan dollar has appreciated sharply against the US dollar in recent months but, for a host of reasons, the central bank seems now to be less tolerant of further currency strength. Even without... 2nd July 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economy still struggling, more easing likely The latest batch of monthly activity and inflation data for Korea support the case for further monetary policy easing by the central bank. We are expecting another 50bps of cuts before the end of the... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: fresh political turmoil to weigh on economy Thailand faces renewed political uncertainty after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was today suspended. This will undermine consumer and business sentiment and complicate efforts to agree a free... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
