Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea shifts to “dot plot” framework The key development from today’s meeting of the Bank of Korea was not the widely expected decision to keep the policy rate at 2.50%, but the shift to a new six-month forward-guidance “dot plot”. While... 26th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: jump in fertility rate unlikely to be sustained The fertility rate in Korea increased in 2025 for the second year in a row, offering a rare glimmer of relief given the country’s terrible demographics. But the fertility rate remains very low and we... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update New US tariff regime will rejig Asian electronics trade Trump’s new 15% global tariff rate reduces the tariff burden on most Asian countries, but the biggest winner is China. It still faces a higher tariff than countries elsewhere in the region, but the... 23rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update About those Indonesian GDP figures… The acceleration in Indonesian GDP growth in Q4 is hard to square with some other activity data, which suggests that the economy softened at the end of last year. Given the government’s push to get... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: is stability here to stay? Pakistan has pulled itself back from the edge of economic collapse: foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt, inflation has stabilised, the current account is broadly balanced and the fiscal... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand votes for stability Thailand’s election result should help reduce political risk in the near term but does little to change the challenging economic outlook. The real test for the next government will be whether it can... 8th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Why this election matters for Bangladesh The upcoming election on 12th February will be pivotal for Bangladesh as the country seeks to restore stability following the 2024 political crisis and place the economy on a more sustainable footing... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan leaving Korea in the slow lane Taiwan’s economy for a long time grew at the same pace as Korea, but is now surging ahead. Taiwan’s central role in AI-related electronics supply chains has driven a powerful post-pandemic expansion... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: will the equity boom lift the economy? Korea’s equity boom is unlikely to deliver a major boost to Korean consumers or the broader economy. But it is sending a clear signal about the external outlook. The rally reflects Korea’s central... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India-US trade deal: economic and geopolitical ramifications The 18% tariff that President Trump has announced will be applied to imports from India – down from 50% – would significantly boost India’s attractiveness as an alternative manufacturing hub to China... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (January) The January manufacturing PMI readings for Asian economies remain consistent with generally steady growth in manufacturing. However, the PMIs have recently been a poor guide to the hard activity data... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS to stay on hold despite hawkish tilt Singapore’s central bank kept monetary policy settings unchanged today but adopted a slightly more hawkish tone. While risks to the policy outlook are now skewed modestly towards tighter policy later... 29th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update MSCI threat adds to Indonesia’s woes The slump in Indonesia’s stock market today in the wake of a threat by MSCI to downgrade the country to “frontier market” status is the latest in a long list of issues that investors are grappling... 28th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea – domestic weakness to offset export strength We expect Korea to record another year of subdued growth in 2026, as relatively strong exports are likely to be offset by soft domestic demand. Trump’s latest threat to impose 25% tariffs poses a... 27th January 2026 · 4 mins read
