Latin America Economics Update Q3 slump strengthens the case for below-consensus growth The latest data point to an abrupt drop in activity in Latin America, only partly offset by strength in Mexico and Peru. While we don’t think this weakness will last, the carryover from a weak Q3 as... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (October 2026) Growth in the region appears to have weakened sharply in Q3 and, if anything, the risks to our below-consensus forecasts may now lie to the downside. High inflation across the region limits the extent... 20th October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Flávio in pole position The strong showing for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election has boosted Brazilian assets this week. Most of the good news now appears to be priced into the FX and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (September 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent soft batch of activity data across many parts of Latin America is... 29th September 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Colombia’s turn to the IMF While Colombia isn’t facing the balance of payments strains that an IMF program is designed to tackle, an agreement with the Fund – as the government seems to be aiming for – could make austerity... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep to hike, Mexican growth, Brazil’s election race The recent global bond market sell-off and rise in risk premia on Colombian assets is likely to shift BanRep's board in a more hawkish direction at next Wednesday's meeting. We now expect the central... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Tight fiscal stances, deteriorating terms of trade and weakening labour markets mean that Latin American economies will continue to struggle and we think regional growth will come in below 2% in the... 10th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia ’s ugly “Truth Budget” puts fiscal risks in focus The big revisions to Colombia’s fiscal projections reflect the previous government’s fiscal slippage and imply an even larger squeeze is needed to stop the public debt-to-GDP ratio from rising. And it... 1st September 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (August 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in Latin America last quarter was a mixed bag, with Colombia the region’s... 26th August 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s outperformance, Banxico’s divide This week’s activity data point to a big divergence in growth across Latin America, with Argentina underperforming and Colombia leading the pack. But growth in Colombia remains worryingly unbalanced... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2026) The strong 1.3% q/q expansion in Colombian GDP in Q2, alongside continued above-target inflation, means that BanRep is likely to deliver an interest rate hike in September (having paused in July). 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bovespa drop, Copom to cut, mixed growth in the Andes Brazil's Bovespa equity index has had a tough week and we think that Brazilian stocks will underperform their EM peers over the remainder of this year. The activity data out of Brazil have also been... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
