Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Financial lifeline for Pemex, busy week for central banks

In a busy week for central banks, we expect policymakers in Chile and Colombia to resume their easing cycle and Copom to leave its policy rate unchanged. But the overarching picture in Latin America...

25th July 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Colombian peso set to be a regional underperformer

We think Colombia’s fragile fiscal position – which could get even worse ahead of next year’s election – and a likely deterioration in the current account deficit will cause the peso to fall by more...

24th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Lat Am in Trump’s firing line, good news on inflation

The broad-based falls shown in the CPI figures for June suggest that the inflation picture in Latin America has become a bit better, supporting our view that central banks in many places will deliver...

11th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM disinflation has further to run

Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and...

10th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

The Trump-Petro rift and the risks for Colombia

Colombia’s shift from being a staunch US ally to embracing China has been one of the starkest geopolitical moves of the last few years. This may put Colombia into President Trump’s crosshairs for...

7th July 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Lat Am central banks to surprise on the dovish side

Our views on the outlook for monetary policy in Latin America have been on the hawkish side for some time, but we now think that there’s scope for interest rates in many countries in the region to...

2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Diverging rate decisions, Middle East war & Lat Am

While Chile’s central bank this week flagged that it will resume its easing cycle soon, Brazil’s hiked interest rates and didn’t close the door to additional tightening. But despite Brazilian...

20th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared...

17th June 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Petro dashes Colombia’s fiscal credibility

The Colombian government’s fiscal plans unveiled late on Friday will have dashed any lingering hopes that policymakers would try to stabilise the public debt-to-GDP ratio, at least ahead of next year...

16th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal plans, Mexican exports

The Colombian government’s fiscal plans due to be released later today are likely to see a much less ambitious budget deficit target and a suspension of the fiscal rule, which will raise further...

13th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences

EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the...

12th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges

Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region...

12th June 2025 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Colombia’s fiscal mess to push bond spreads wider

Colombia’s fiscal problems have returned to the spotlight amid rumours that the government will suspend the fiscal rule. This has triggered a sell-off in the bond market, but it doesn’t look like the...

10th June 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal drama, no TACO for Mexico this week

We doubt that the Colombian government will manage to assuage investors’ concerns about the country's public finances when it publishes its fiscal plans next Friday. Elsewhere, the political wrangling...

6th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (May 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the...

27th May 2025 · 1 min read