On some measures China’s current COVID situation is about as bad as it has ever been. While far fewer infections are being found daily than at the peak of the Omicron wave, new cases are geographically spread just as wide, with the result that the threat of local lockdowns is high. The number of people in quarantine tripled during October. There is not much sign of major disruption to industry. But the risk of getting quarantined is continuing to depress consumer activity. And there’s little prospect of a lasting change as long as zero-COVID remains the national goal.
EM Drop-In (Thursday 3rd Nov): This 20-minute emerging markets briefing will take in our latest views on how the macroeconomic picture will inform EM financial markets, what Brazil’s election result means for the country’s economic outlook and our forecasts for Hungary’s forint and the Colombian peso. Register here.
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