Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is back to discuss what the recent data say about the global economic outlook – including October US payrolls and China PMIs – and what to expect from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England following their decisions to keep rates unchanged over the past week. Neil also explains why a persistent focus on the threats to humanity posed by artificial intelligence is unhelpful.
Franziska Palmas from our Europe team is also on the show to discuss her worrying new forecasts for Italy’s debt ratio and whether it could be a trigger for a crisis within the euro-zone.
Plus, an exclusive clip from the latest monthly Drop-In briefing in which our Asia team talks through the Bank of Japan’s next steps after that latest tweak to its Yield Curve Control policy.
Analysis referenced in this episode:
Fourth quarter bringing renewed slowdown
There is now mounting evidence that the economy is set for a renewed slowdown in the fourth quarter and that inflationary pressures from the labour market continue to ease. Although markets have
High bond yields to push up Italy’s debt ratio to 150%
The prospect of a long period of high bond yields and some signs of fiscal slippage by Prime Minister Meloni’s government have worsened the outlook for public finances in Italy. We now think the debt
Bank will end negative interest rates in early-2024
The Bank of Japan today de facto abolished Yield Curve Control and we think policymakers will call time on negative interest rates as soon as January. A casual reading of today’s statement would
