Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note China’s property woes don’t augur a 2008-style crisis. The good news ends there. Sometimes you can’t catch a break. Just as we received some good news on the global inflation front, problems in China’s economy have resurfaced. The big event last week was the release of July... 22nd August 2022 Chief Economist's Note Don't ignore the supply side – it may be key to getting inflation back to target Finally, some good news on the inflation front. But signs of cooling consumer and producer price pressures in the US are unlikely to silence the vigorous debate among economists about what central... 15th August 2022 Chief Economist's Note In UK PM race, tax cuts are a distraction from economic challenges This is not a grown-up race for the Conservative party leadership. A grown-up race would involve grown-up debate around the economic policies needed for the UK to secure sustainable growth in its... 8th August 2022 Chief Economist's Note The ECB’s got 99 problems but a weak euro ain’t one Next week marks the tenth anniversary of Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. That was the line-in-the-sand moment that paved the way for policies that eventually brought... 18th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note From deglobalisation to outright fracturing – the global economy’s post-pandemic, post-Ukraine reality The one-two punch of the pandemic and war in Ukraine has fundamentally shifted the narrative around globalisation. In 2019, the research prepared for our annual ‘Spotlight’ event explained why we... 11th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note Housing downturn will deepen – but this isn’t 2008 Central bankers giveth and central bankers taketh away. It was their low interest rate policies which helped fuel an extraordinary – and extraordinarily global – rise in house prices. As a... 5th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note Japan will find it harder than China to buck the global tightening trend This is being called a global monetary tightening cycle – but it’s not strictly “global”. While 41 of the 50 central banks under our coverage have raised rates so far, and we expect others to join... 27th June 2022 The Chief Economist's Note In race back to neutral the biggest traps lie in the euro-zone The Federal Reserve dominated markets last week, briefing a super-sized hike in interest rates to the press on Monday and duly delivering it at the conclusion of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It was the... 20th June 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Global food supply shock raises inflation stakes Energy prices are dominating the headlines, but the current inflationary surge is also about what’s happening with global food supplies. We estimate that higher food prices have accounted for about... 13th June 2022 The Chief Economist's Note The not-so-good, the bad and the ugly: the outlook for the world’s big three economies We’ve spent a long time arguing that the global economy faces a more difficult outlook than most expect. The consensus is now moving towards our view as evidence of weakness mounts. But, amid the... 31st May 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Whipping inflation doesn’t necessarily require a recession – but some may not get a choice A debate is raging among market participants about whether inflation has accelerated to such an extent that a recession has now become necessary in order to bring it back down. As we explained in a... 23rd May 2022 The Chief Economist's Note In this new age of uncertainty, central banks should double down on inflation targeting 25 years ago this month the Bank of England was granted operational independence by the then-Chancellor Gordon Brown. Uncomfortably for current members of the Monetary Policy Committee, the... 16th May 2022 The Chief Economist's Note China’s economic challenges won’t stop with defeating Omicron All three of the world’s major economic blocs are now facing significant headwinds. In the US, these stem from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve, while the euro-zone faces pressure from a huge... 3rd May 2022 The Chief Economist's Note From ‘Roaring’ to ‘Recessionary Twenties’ – how convincing is the market’s latest story? Financial markets love a good story. Twelve months ago, the dominant narrative was that we were heading into another “Roaring Twenties”, with the global economy set to see years of above-trend growth... 25th April 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Reports of the dollar’s demise are (still) greatly exaggerated The debate about the role of the dollar in the global economy is an old one. Over the years it’s been given fresh life by events including the creation of the euro, China’s rise and the Global... 4th April 2022 The Chief Economist's Note EM crises are old news – today’s risks from higher rates lie in housing In justifying his dissenting call for a 50-basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, St Louis Fed President James Bullard cited the experience of the 1994 tightening cycle, arguing that... 28th March 2022 Pagination Previous … Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Current page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 … Next
Chief Economist's Note China’s property woes don’t augur a 2008-style crisis. The good news ends there. Sometimes you can’t catch a break. Just as we received some good news on the global inflation front, problems in China’s economy have resurfaced. The big event last week was the release of July... 22nd August 2022
Chief Economist's Note Don't ignore the supply side – it may be key to getting inflation back to target Finally, some good news on the inflation front. But signs of cooling consumer and producer price pressures in the US are unlikely to silence the vigorous debate among economists about what central... 15th August 2022
Chief Economist's Note In UK PM race, tax cuts are a distraction from economic challenges This is not a grown-up race for the Conservative party leadership. A grown-up race would involve grown-up debate around the economic policies needed for the UK to secure sustainable growth in its... 8th August 2022
Chief Economist's Note The ECB’s got 99 problems but a weak euro ain’t one Next week marks the tenth anniversary of Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. That was the line-in-the-sand moment that paved the way for policies that eventually brought... 18th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note From deglobalisation to outright fracturing – the global economy’s post-pandemic, post-Ukraine reality The one-two punch of the pandemic and war in Ukraine has fundamentally shifted the narrative around globalisation. In 2019, the research prepared for our annual ‘Spotlight’ event explained why we... 11th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note Housing downturn will deepen – but this isn’t 2008 Central bankers giveth and central bankers taketh away. It was their low interest rate policies which helped fuel an extraordinary – and extraordinarily global – rise in house prices. As a... 5th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note Japan will find it harder than China to buck the global tightening trend This is being called a global monetary tightening cycle – but it’s not strictly “global”. While 41 of the 50 central banks under our coverage have raised rates so far, and we expect others to join... 27th June 2022
The Chief Economist's Note In race back to neutral the biggest traps lie in the euro-zone The Federal Reserve dominated markets last week, briefing a super-sized hike in interest rates to the press on Monday and duly delivering it at the conclusion of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It was the... 20th June 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Global food supply shock raises inflation stakes Energy prices are dominating the headlines, but the current inflationary surge is also about what’s happening with global food supplies. We estimate that higher food prices have accounted for about... 13th June 2022
The Chief Economist's Note The not-so-good, the bad and the ugly: the outlook for the world’s big three economies We’ve spent a long time arguing that the global economy faces a more difficult outlook than most expect. The consensus is now moving towards our view as evidence of weakness mounts. But, amid the... 31st May 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Whipping inflation doesn’t necessarily require a recession – but some may not get a choice A debate is raging among market participants about whether inflation has accelerated to such an extent that a recession has now become necessary in order to bring it back down. As we explained in a... 23rd May 2022
The Chief Economist's Note In this new age of uncertainty, central banks should double down on inflation targeting 25 years ago this month the Bank of England was granted operational independence by the then-Chancellor Gordon Brown. Uncomfortably for current members of the Monetary Policy Committee, the... 16th May 2022
The Chief Economist's Note China’s economic challenges won’t stop with defeating Omicron All three of the world’s major economic blocs are now facing significant headwinds. In the US, these stem from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve, while the euro-zone faces pressure from a huge... 3rd May 2022
The Chief Economist's Note From ‘Roaring’ to ‘Recessionary Twenties’ – how convincing is the market’s latest story? Financial markets love a good story. Twelve months ago, the dominant narrative was that we were heading into another “Roaring Twenties”, with the global economy set to see years of above-trend growth... 25th April 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Reports of the dollar’s demise are (still) greatly exaggerated The debate about the role of the dollar in the global economy is an old one. Over the years it’s been given fresh life by events including the creation of the euro, China’s rise and the Global... 4th April 2022
The Chief Economist's Note EM crises are old news – today’s risks from higher rates lie in housing In justifying his dissenting call for a 50-basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, St Louis Fed President James Bullard cited the experience of the 1994 tightening cycle, arguing that... 28th March 2022
