Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note Look to labour markets for clues about the future path of inflation and interest rates Last week I offered a post-mortem on inflation’s dramatic return and argued that the key question now was whether it would spread from energy and core goods to other areas of the economy, particularly... 31st January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022 Chart In Focus China's baby bust spells more trouble for real estate One of the more striking numbers in Beijing’s Q4 data haul was an estimate that China’s population grew by just 0.03% last year. 2022 is looking even more likely to be the year that China’s population... 18th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here . Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics , and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021 Chart In Focus The pandemic may send Japan's labour force back to the future Japan’s labour force participation rate has risen by around 8 million, or 12%, since 2012, thanks largely to increased numbers of women and seniors entering the workforce. But that trend hasn’t... 14th December 2021 Capital View 2021's 10 big stories – according to Capital Economics The second year of the living with the pandemic has had its share of high and low points for economies and markets. These are the top 10 stories of the year, according to the Capital Economics team... 14th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Our hits and misses for 2021 – and lessons for the coming year We’ve reached that traditional time of year when research teams send their predictions for the year to come. We’ll publish our contribution at the end of this week. But before looking ahead, it’s... 13th December 2021 Five Questions With... Vicky Redwood on labour shortages and productivity Labour shortages in advanced economies are creating headaches for businesses and policy makers. But there's an argument that they end up spurring productivity, says Senior Economic Adviser Vicky... 7th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Omicron and inflation: The supply-demand forces that will determine price outcomes Is Omicron inflationary? It’s one of the questions we’ve been asked most often since the identification of this new, and potentially more virulent, strain. Like much to do with Omicron, a lot remains... 6th December 2021 Chart In Focus What would an Omicron lockdown mean for the UK economy? In providing a framework for thinking about how Omicron could impact the UK economy and policy-making, Chief UK Economist Paul Dales explains how GDP isn’t as far below pre-crisis levels as it was at... 30th November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Omicron’s stark reminder that the global economic recovery hinges on the pandemic It says something when a currency loses 20% of its value in a matter of hours and still isn’t the week’s major market event. While Turkey will doubtless continue to struggle with the ramifications of... 29th November 2021 Five Questions With... Andrew Kenningham on the euro-zone's fourth wave and the ECB New COVID-19 cases are surging in Europe with less than a month before the ECB's key 16th December meeting. We asked Andrew Kenningham how this new wave could affect the Governing Council's decision... 25th November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Central bankers face big messaging test as strains of recovery show One important point that’s easy to miss in the ebb and flow of the monthly data is just how quickly the global economy has rebounded from the COVID crisis. Global GDP fell by just over 10% between Q4... 22nd November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note EMs even less suited to ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach as pandemic takes toll Financial markets feed off grand narratives, and nowhere is this more true than in emerging economies. Depending on which narrative you believe, we are either in the early years of an “Asian Century”... 15th November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note From half empty to half full: consensus on the global outlook is now too optimistic In the depths of last summer’s global recession, we made the case for optimism about the economic outlook. Where the prevailing consensus was that the pandemic had dealt permanent damage to GDP, we... 8th November 2021 Pagination Previous … Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Current page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note Look to labour markets for clues about the future path of inflation and interest rates Last week I offered a post-mortem on inflation’s dramatic return and argued that the key question now was whether it would spread from energy and core goods to other areas of the economy, particularly... 31st January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022
Chart In Focus China's baby bust spells more trouble for real estate One of the more striking numbers in Beijing’s Q4 data haul was an estimate that China’s population grew by just 0.03% last year. 2022 is looking even more likely to be the year that China’s population... 18th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here . Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics , and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021
Chart In Focus The pandemic may send Japan's labour force back to the future Japan’s labour force participation rate has risen by around 8 million, or 12%, since 2012, thanks largely to increased numbers of women and seniors entering the workforce. But that trend hasn’t... 14th December 2021
Capital View 2021's 10 big stories – according to Capital Economics The second year of the living with the pandemic has had its share of high and low points for economies and markets. These are the top 10 stories of the year, according to the Capital Economics team... 14th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Our hits and misses for 2021 – and lessons for the coming year We’ve reached that traditional time of year when research teams send their predictions for the year to come. We’ll publish our contribution at the end of this week. But before looking ahead, it’s... 13th December 2021
Five Questions With... Vicky Redwood on labour shortages and productivity Labour shortages in advanced economies are creating headaches for businesses and policy makers. But there's an argument that they end up spurring productivity, says Senior Economic Adviser Vicky... 7th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Omicron and inflation: The supply-demand forces that will determine price outcomes Is Omicron inflationary? It’s one of the questions we’ve been asked most often since the identification of this new, and potentially more virulent, strain. Like much to do with Omicron, a lot remains... 6th December 2021
Chart In Focus What would an Omicron lockdown mean for the UK economy? In providing a framework for thinking about how Omicron could impact the UK economy and policy-making, Chief UK Economist Paul Dales explains how GDP isn’t as far below pre-crisis levels as it was at... 30th November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Omicron’s stark reminder that the global economic recovery hinges on the pandemic It says something when a currency loses 20% of its value in a matter of hours and still isn’t the week’s major market event. While Turkey will doubtless continue to struggle with the ramifications of... 29th November 2021
Five Questions With... Andrew Kenningham on the euro-zone's fourth wave and the ECB New COVID-19 cases are surging in Europe with less than a month before the ECB's key 16th December meeting. We asked Andrew Kenningham how this new wave could affect the Governing Council's decision... 25th November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Central bankers face big messaging test as strains of recovery show One important point that’s easy to miss in the ebb and flow of the monthly data is just how quickly the global economy has rebounded from the COVID crisis. Global GDP fell by just over 10% between Q4... 22nd November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note EMs even less suited to ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach as pandemic takes toll Financial markets feed off grand narratives, and nowhere is this more true than in emerging economies. Depending on which narrative you believe, we are either in the early years of an “Asian Century”... 15th November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note From half empty to half full: consensus on the global outlook is now too optimistic In the depths of last summer’s global recession, we made the case for optimism about the economic outlook. Where the prevailing consensus was that the pandemic had dealt permanent damage to GDP, we... 8th November 2021
