Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here. Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics, and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Our hits and misses for 2021 – and lessons for the coming year We’ve reached that traditional time of year when research teams send their predictions for the year to come. We’ll publish our contribution at the end of this week. But before looking ahead, it’s... 13th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Omicron and inflation: The supply-demand forces that will determine price outcomes Is Omicron inflationary? It’s one of the questions we’ve been asked most often since the identification of this new, and potentially more virulent, strain. Like much to do with Omicron, a lot remains... 6th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Omicron’s stark reminder that the global economic recovery hinges on the pandemic It says something when a currency loses 20% of its value in a matter of hours and still isn’t the week’s major market event. While Turkey will doubtless continue to struggle with the ramifications of... 29th November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Central bankers face big messaging test as strains of recovery show One important point that’s easy to miss in the ebb and flow of the monthly data is just how quickly the global economy has rebounded from the COVID crisis. Global GDP fell by just over 10% between Q4... 22nd November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note EMs even less suited to ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach as pandemic takes toll Financial markets feed off grand narratives, and nowhere is this more true than in emerging economies. Depending on which narrative you believe, we are either in the early years of an “Asian Century”... 15th November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note From half empty to half full: consensus on the global outlook is now too optimistic In the depths of last summer’s global recession, we made the case for optimism about the economic outlook. Where the prevailing consensus was that the pandemic had dealt permanent damage to GDP, we... 8th November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Central banks are treading an increasingly fine line The past several days has seen a substantial repricing by markets in favour of earlier policy tightening by central banks. This hawkish shift was helped by the Bank of Canada, which last week called... 1st November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note How to think about shortages – and how policymakers should (and shouldn’t) respond Goods and labour shortages are now the biggest challenge facing the global economy – and central bankers and economic policymakers by extension. Yet much of the thinking around shortages is confused... 11th October 2021 Chief Economist's Note Look past the 1970s for today’s economic parallels Fuel shortages, tax increases and a whiff of stagflation have prompted comparisons between the economic situation today and that of the 1970s. But for the UK at least, the similarities with the period... 4th October 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Inflation’s complex outlook depends on shifting attitudes in corridors of power The record surge in gas prices, which has gripped markets and dominated headlines in recent weeks, is also helping crystallise fears that the global economy is facing a generational shift towards... 27th September 2021 The Chief Economist's Note What a Spotlight on inflation past and present tells us about future risks Last week we launched our annual CE Spotlight series, which is an opportunity to step back from the day-to-day ebb and flow of the data and take an in-depth look at the key issues that will shape the... 20th September 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Now for the hard part The return from summer holidays is a good time to take stock of developments in the global economy. The results are not entirely encouraging. The most obvious place to start is with the latest... 13th September 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Is this the rebirth of inflation? It’s far more complex than polarised debate suggests Of all the questions that hang over the post-COVID world, the most important for financial markets is whether the pandemic will mark the start of a new era of higher inflation. Yet much of the debate... 7th September 2021 Pagination Previous … Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Current page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here. Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics, and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Our hits and misses for 2021 – and lessons for the coming year We’ve reached that traditional time of year when research teams send their predictions for the year to come. We’ll publish our contribution at the end of this week. But before looking ahead, it’s... 13th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Omicron and inflation: The supply-demand forces that will determine price outcomes Is Omicron inflationary? It’s one of the questions we’ve been asked most often since the identification of this new, and potentially more virulent, strain. Like much to do with Omicron, a lot remains... 6th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Omicron’s stark reminder that the global economic recovery hinges on the pandemic It says something when a currency loses 20% of its value in a matter of hours and still isn’t the week’s major market event. While Turkey will doubtless continue to struggle with the ramifications of... 29th November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Central bankers face big messaging test as strains of recovery show One important point that’s easy to miss in the ebb and flow of the monthly data is just how quickly the global economy has rebounded from the COVID crisis. Global GDP fell by just over 10% between Q4... 22nd November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note EMs even less suited to ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach as pandemic takes toll Financial markets feed off grand narratives, and nowhere is this more true than in emerging economies. Depending on which narrative you believe, we are either in the early years of an “Asian Century”... 15th November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note From half empty to half full: consensus on the global outlook is now too optimistic In the depths of last summer’s global recession, we made the case for optimism about the economic outlook. Where the prevailing consensus was that the pandemic had dealt permanent damage to GDP, we... 8th November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Central banks are treading an increasingly fine line The past several days has seen a substantial repricing by markets in favour of earlier policy tightening by central banks. This hawkish shift was helped by the Bank of Canada, which last week called... 1st November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note How to think about shortages – and how policymakers should (and shouldn’t) respond Goods and labour shortages are now the biggest challenge facing the global economy – and central bankers and economic policymakers by extension. Yet much of the thinking around shortages is confused... 11th October 2021
Chief Economist's Note Look past the 1970s for today’s economic parallels Fuel shortages, tax increases and a whiff of stagflation have prompted comparisons between the economic situation today and that of the 1970s. But for the UK at least, the similarities with the period... 4th October 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Inflation’s complex outlook depends on shifting attitudes in corridors of power The record surge in gas prices, which has gripped markets and dominated headlines in recent weeks, is also helping crystallise fears that the global economy is facing a generational shift towards... 27th September 2021
The Chief Economist's Note What a Spotlight on inflation past and present tells us about future risks Last week we launched our annual CE Spotlight series, which is an opportunity to step back from the day-to-day ebb and flow of the data and take an in-depth look at the key issues that will shape the... 20th September 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Now for the hard part The return from summer holidays is a good time to take stock of developments in the global economy. The results are not entirely encouraging. The most obvious place to start is with the latest... 13th September 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Is this the rebirth of inflation? It’s far more complex than polarised debate suggests Of all the questions that hang over the post-COVID world, the most important for financial markets is whether the pandemic will mark the start of a new era of higher inflation. Yet much of the debate... 7th September 2021
