Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note EM crises are old news – today’s risks from higher rates lie in housing In justifying his dissenting call for a 50-basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, St Louis Fed President James Bullard cited the experience of the 1994 tightening cycle, arguing that... 28th March 2022 Chart In Focus Saudi mortgage boom shackles its banks to the housing market Mortgages have become big business for Saudi Arabia’s banks, with loans to home buyers rising to around a fifth of total credit from less than 1% in 2016 and becoming the biggest single biggest source... 25th March 2022 Capital View Russia and China's Long Run Economic Outlooks Our Long Run service is unique in dedicating a team of economists to consider how big picture themes will shape long-term macro and market outcomes. In a 23rd March online briefing , Group Chief... 24th March 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Damned if they don’t – central bank tightening risks recession but inaction would be worse The key message to come from meetings of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England last week, and the European Central Bank the week before, was that the war in Ukraine has not deterred central bankers... 21st March 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Central banks will press on with rate hikes, despite the war’s uncertainties Just a few weeks ago, central bankers were grappling with the considerable challenge of maintaining post-pandemic recoveries in the face of a generational surge in inflation. Now, against the backdrop... 14th March 2022 Capital View China economic outlook: Cyclical trough, tepid rebound The Chinese economy will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction, though policy support should provide some limited improvement later... 8th March 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Russia’s economy is already hurting from Western sanctions. Worse is to come. Vladimir Putin believes Western sanctions are “akin to a declaration of war”. The Russian President’s reported comment gives a sense of his outrage at the punitive response to his invasion of Ukraine... 7th March 2022 Chart In Focus Sanctions are pushing Russia's already-fragile banks to the brink Even before the barrage of western sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's banks stood out for their bad loans and low capital ratios. They’re now vulnerable to a dangerous... 2nd March 2022 Chief Economist's Note China is one of globalisation’s winners. It won’t throw that away for Russia. Amid the outpouring of punditry which has followed the start of war in Ukraine is the idea that this conflict is a manifestation of the fracturing of the global political and economic order. On one... 28th February 2022 Capital View Russia-Ukraine and the macro outlook: Questions in need of answers The full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces raises the stakes significantly for economic and market outcomes. Our economists have identified eight key questions about this crisis so far to... 24th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note We need to talk about QT The debate about how quickly and how far central banks should raise interest rates has intensified in recent weeks, but relatively little attention has been paid to the role that quantitative... 21st February 2022 Capital View Global economy outlook: Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower than many forecasters anticipate this year, but most central banks will have to tighten policy regardless, our Q1 Global Economic Outlook warns. Our latest Outlook maps... 17th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Navigating the path back to normal As central banks in advanced economies begin to tighten policy, two questions hang over financial markets: how quickly will policymakers increase interest rates and how far might rates ultimately need... 14th February 2022 Capital View UK economy outlook: More inflation, more interest rate hikes We think inflation will be the key challenge for the UK economy in 2022. The combination of rising global costs and a hike in domestic utility prices at the start of April will take CPI inflation up... 8th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note How policy makers should – and shouldn’t – tackle the energy price inflation shock Another week, another set of inflation figures to dial up the pressure on central banks. This time it was the ECB’s turn to feel the heat, with flash data showing that inflation hit 5.1% y/y in... 7th February 2022 Five Questions With... Jason Tuvey on Turkey's unsustainable economic path The collapse of the Turkish lira was the big EM story of 2021. Although this year has started on a quieter footing, Jason Tuvey , our Senior Emerging Markets Economist, warns President Erdogan's... 1st February 2022 Pagination Previous … Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Current page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note EM crises are old news – today’s risks from higher rates lie in housing In justifying his dissenting call for a 50-basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, St Louis Fed President James Bullard cited the experience of the 1994 tightening cycle, arguing that... 28th March 2022
Chart In Focus Saudi mortgage boom shackles its banks to the housing market Mortgages have become big business for Saudi Arabia’s banks, with loans to home buyers rising to around a fifth of total credit from less than 1% in 2016 and becoming the biggest single biggest source... 25th March 2022
Capital View Russia and China's Long Run Economic Outlooks Our Long Run service is unique in dedicating a team of economists to consider how big picture themes will shape long-term macro and market outcomes. In a 23rd March online briefing , Group Chief... 24th March 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Damned if they don’t – central bank tightening risks recession but inaction would be worse The key message to come from meetings of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England last week, and the European Central Bank the week before, was that the war in Ukraine has not deterred central bankers... 21st March 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Central banks will press on with rate hikes, despite the war’s uncertainties Just a few weeks ago, central bankers were grappling with the considerable challenge of maintaining post-pandemic recoveries in the face of a generational surge in inflation. Now, against the backdrop... 14th March 2022
Capital View China economic outlook: Cyclical trough, tepid rebound The Chinese economy will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction, though policy support should provide some limited improvement later... 8th March 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Russia’s economy is already hurting from Western sanctions. Worse is to come. Vladimir Putin believes Western sanctions are “akin to a declaration of war”. The Russian President’s reported comment gives a sense of his outrage at the punitive response to his invasion of Ukraine... 7th March 2022
Chart In Focus Sanctions are pushing Russia's already-fragile banks to the brink Even before the barrage of western sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's banks stood out for their bad loans and low capital ratios. They’re now vulnerable to a dangerous... 2nd March 2022
Chief Economist's Note China is one of globalisation’s winners. It won’t throw that away for Russia. Amid the outpouring of punditry which has followed the start of war in Ukraine is the idea that this conflict is a manifestation of the fracturing of the global political and economic order. On one... 28th February 2022
Capital View Russia-Ukraine and the macro outlook: Questions in need of answers The full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces raises the stakes significantly for economic and market outcomes. Our economists have identified eight key questions about this crisis so far to... 24th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note We need to talk about QT The debate about how quickly and how far central banks should raise interest rates has intensified in recent weeks, but relatively little attention has been paid to the role that quantitative... 21st February 2022
Capital View Global economy outlook: Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower than many forecasters anticipate this year, but most central banks will have to tighten policy regardless, our Q1 Global Economic Outlook warns. Our latest Outlook maps... 17th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Navigating the path back to normal As central banks in advanced economies begin to tighten policy, two questions hang over financial markets: how quickly will policymakers increase interest rates and how far might rates ultimately need... 14th February 2022
Capital View UK economy outlook: More inflation, more interest rate hikes We think inflation will be the key challenge for the UK economy in 2022. The combination of rising global costs and a hike in domestic utility prices at the start of April will take CPI inflation up... 8th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note How policy makers should – and shouldn’t – tackle the energy price inflation shock Another week, another set of inflation figures to dial up the pressure on central banks. This time it was the ECB’s turn to feel the heat, with flash data showing that inflation hit 5.1% y/y in... 7th February 2022
Five Questions With... Jason Tuvey on Turkey's unsustainable economic path The collapse of the Turkish lira was the big EM story of 2021. Although this year has started on a quieter footing, Jason Tuvey , our Senior Emerging Markets Economist, warns President Erdogan's... 1st February 2022
