Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2022 Five key reads from 2022 It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the next twelve months. You can find our contribution on a dedicated “ World in 2023” page... 19th December 2022 Chief Economist's Note The year’s big story in macro and markets will ripple into 2023 as well We had expected 2022 to be a year in which growth generally disappointed, central banks struggled with sticky inflation and the lingering effects of the pandemic remained the biggest source of... 12th December 2022 Chief Economist's Note EMs have moved on from crises past but don’t discount new debt risks A recurring fear in sell-side research and market commentary this year has been that a combination of tightening by the Federal Reserve and a strong US dollar will precipitate a wave of debt crises in... 5th December 2022 Chief Economist's Note Get ready for a year of recession – but it won’t be all bad news The Thanksgiving holiday marks the point in the calendar where sell-side economists start to think about their “what to expect next year” pieces. We’ll be publishing our own contributions over the... 28th November 2022 Chief Economist's Note The UK’s hard lesson in fiscal discipline is globally relevant My previous overseas client trip was at the height of the Truss-Kwarteng madness and involved flying 7,000 miles to Singapore for meetings dominated by talk of a UK government gone wild. On that note... 21st November 2022 Chief Economist's Note We need to understand inflation to control it. That’s a problem. There’s a dirty secret at the heart of economics: economists – and by extension central banks – understand less about inflation dynamics than we would like to admit. Granted, we can model with... 14th November 2022 Chief Economist's Note Climate challenge will depend on economics in an era of global fracturing Anyone expecting more than photo ops and lofty pronouncements from COP27 is likely to be disappointed. The annual climate summit, which opened in Sharm El Sheikh yesterday, may give a small nudge to... 7th November 2022 Chief Economist's Note Why the euro-zone’s darkening economic outlook isn’t spooking markets (yet) A combination of the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the UK’s self-inflicted budget crisis , and Xi Jinping’s efforts to consolidate power at China’s 20th Party Congress has kept Europe out... 24th October 2022 Chief Economist's Note The global economic outlook is bad. Here’s how it could get worse. Global economic officials were in a grim mood at last week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington – and it wasn’t just to do with the presence of the soon-to-be-defenestrated UK Chancellor. While... 17th October 2022 Chief Economist's Note Just because the RBA blinked doesn’t mean other central banks will follow A 25-basis point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week was enough to raise hopes in the market that other central banks would soon “pivot” to a more moderate pace of monetary policy... 10th October 2022 Chief Economist's Note Globalisation isn’t dead but it is in flux – get ready for an age of economic fracturing The fracturing of the global economy is the theme of a major report we’re publishing this week as part of our annual ‘Spotlight’ series of written research and in-person and online presentations. It’s... 3rd October 2022 Chief Economist's Note Global inflation fixation risks missing China’s economic reckoning Markets are understandably focused on inflation and the increasingly tough monetary response. After another round of rate hikes and hawkish signals from advanced economy central bankers, this is... 26th September 2022 Chief Economist's Note Forget the US inflation shocker – UK labour market data are the real horror story Hopes for a Fed pivot last week crashed into the reality of hotter-than-expected US inflation data, sending shockwaves through global markets. But while August CPI got the airtime, the more troubling... 20th September 2022 Chief Economist's Note Europe’s energy sticking plaster won’t preclude much higher rates The grim reality of Europe’s cost of living crisis is beginning to stir governments into action. In Germany, the government has announced a support package that freezes energy prices for households... 12th September 2022 Chief Economist's Note History won’t repeat – this wave of deglobalisation will be unlike the others In a note over summer I trailed our annual Spotlight event, which this year will focus on deglobalisation and the fracturing of the global economy. The series of reports and events, which we will... 6th September 2022 Chief Economist's Note Putting Europe’s energy crisis in context I’m away this week, so there’s no note from me. Instead, I’d like to point you in the direction of two recent pieces which provide important context for Russia’s current squeeze on Europe’s energy... 30th August 2022 Pagination Previous … Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Current page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2022 Five key reads from 2022 It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the next twelve months. You can find our contribution on a dedicated “ World in 2023” page... 19th December 2022
Chief Economist's Note The year’s big story in macro and markets will ripple into 2023 as well We had expected 2022 to be a year in which growth generally disappointed, central banks struggled with sticky inflation and the lingering effects of the pandemic remained the biggest source of... 12th December 2022
Chief Economist's Note EMs have moved on from crises past but don’t discount new debt risks A recurring fear in sell-side research and market commentary this year has been that a combination of tightening by the Federal Reserve and a strong US dollar will precipitate a wave of debt crises in... 5th December 2022
Chief Economist's Note Get ready for a year of recession – but it won’t be all bad news The Thanksgiving holiday marks the point in the calendar where sell-side economists start to think about their “what to expect next year” pieces. We’ll be publishing our own contributions over the... 28th November 2022
Chief Economist's Note The UK’s hard lesson in fiscal discipline is globally relevant My previous overseas client trip was at the height of the Truss-Kwarteng madness and involved flying 7,000 miles to Singapore for meetings dominated by talk of a UK government gone wild. On that note... 21st November 2022
Chief Economist's Note We need to understand inflation to control it. That’s a problem. There’s a dirty secret at the heart of economics: economists – and by extension central banks – understand less about inflation dynamics than we would like to admit. Granted, we can model with... 14th November 2022
Chief Economist's Note Climate challenge will depend on economics in an era of global fracturing Anyone expecting more than photo ops and lofty pronouncements from COP27 is likely to be disappointed. The annual climate summit, which opened in Sharm El Sheikh yesterday, may give a small nudge to... 7th November 2022
Chief Economist's Note Why the euro-zone’s darkening economic outlook isn’t spooking markets (yet) A combination of the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the UK’s self-inflicted budget crisis , and Xi Jinping’s efforts to consolidate power at China’s 20th Party Congress has kept Europe out... 24th October 2022
Chief Economist's Note The global economic outlook is bad. Here’s how it could get worse. Global economic officials were in a grim mood at last week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington – and it wasn’t just to do with the presence of the soon-to-be-defenestrated UK Chancellor. While... 17th October 2022
Chief Economist's Note Just because the RBA blinked doesn’t mean other central banks will follow A 25-basis point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week was enough to raise hopes in the market that other central banks would soon “pivot” to a more moderate pace of monetary policy... 10th October 2022
Chief Economist's Note Globalisation isn’t dead but it is in flux – get ready for an age of economic fracturing The fracturing of the global economy is the theme of a major report we’re publishing this week as part of our annual ‘Spotlight’ series of written research and in-person and online presentations. It’s... 3rd October 2022
Chief Economist's Note Global inflation fixation risks missing China’s economic reckoning Markets are understandably focused on inflation and the increasingly tough monetary response. After another round of rate hikes and hawkish signals from advanced economy central bankers, this is... 26th September 2022
Chief Economist's Note Forget the US inflation shocker – UK labour market data are the real horror story Hopes for a Fed pivot last week crashed into the reality of hotter-than-expected US inflation data, sending shockwaves through global markets. But while August CPI got the airtime, the more troubling... 20th September 2022
Chief Economist's Note Europe’s energy sticking plaster won’t preclude much higher rates The grim reality of Europe’s cost of living crisis is beginning to stir governments into action. In Germany, the government has announced a support package that freezes energy prices for households... 12th September 2022
Chief Economist's Note History won’t repeat – this wave of deglobalisation will be unlike the others In a note over summer I trailed our annual Spotlight event, which this year will focus on deglobalisation and the fracturing of the global economy. The series of reports and events, which we will... 6th September 2022
Chief Economist's Note Putting Europe’s energy crisis in context I’m away this week, so there’s no note from me. Instead, I’d like to point you in the direction of two recent pieces which provide important context for Russia’s current squeeze on Europe’s energy... 30th August 2022
