Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Putting Europe’s energy crisis in context I’m away this week, so there’s no note from me. Instead, I’d like to point you in the direction of two recent pieces which provide important context for Russia’s current squeeze on Europe’s energy... 30th August 2022 Chief Economist's Note China’s property woes don’t augur a 2008-style crisis. The good news ends there. Sometimes you can’t catch a break. Just as we received some good news on the global inflation front, problems in China’s economy have resurfaced. The big event last week was the release of July... 22nd August 2022 Chief Economist's Note Don't ignore the supply side – it may be key to getting inflation back to target Finally, some good news on the inflation front. But signs of cooling consumer and producer price pressures in the US are unlikely to silence the vigorous debate among economists about what central... 15th August 2022 Chief Economist's Note In UK PM race, tax cuts are a distraction from economic challenges This is not a grown-up race for the Conservative party leadership. A grown-up race would involve grown-up debate around the economic policies needed for the UK to secure sustainable growth in its... 8th August 2022 Capital View Pragmatic Prime Minister is needed to navigate recession There’s a high chance that the first task of either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister will be to navigate the economy through a recession. That will require them to relinquish their dogmatic... 28th July 2022 Capital View Global Economic Outlook: Recession threat broadens Capital Economics began 2022 with a warning that global growth would be weaker this year than most economists were expecting. Our Global Economics team said multiple headwinds would result in... 26th July 2022 Capital View US Economic Outlook: Economy to avoid recession narrowly Recession, recession, recession. If the sheer volume of headlines screaming about a downturn were any guide, the US economy would be fast entering a recession – if not in one already. In fact, our US... 22nd July 2022 Capital View Euro-zone Q3 Economic Outlook: Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The outlook for the euro-zone has darkened considerably since the start of this year. In January, amid the rapid rise of Omicron infections, the forecast had been for sub-trend growth – but growth... 19th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note The ECB’s got 99 problems but a weak euro ain’t one Next week marks the tenth anniversary of Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. That was the line-in-the-sand moment that paved the way for policies that eventually brought... 18th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note From deglobalisation to outright fracturing – the global economy’s post-pandemic, post-Ukraine reality The one-two punch of the pandemic and war in Ukraine has fundamentally shifted the narrative around globalisation. In 2019, the research prepared for our annual ‘Spotlight’ event explained why we... 11th July 2022 Capital View US Recession – Neither imminent nor inevitable Financial markets are feeling the heat amid fears that aggressive tightening plans by the Federal Reserve have pushed the US economy to the brink of recession. Headlines scream that a downturn is... 7th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note Housing downturn will deepen – but this isn’t 2008 Central bankers giveth and central bankers taketh away. It was their low interest rate policies which helped fuel an extraordinary – and extraordinarily global – rise in house prices. As a... 5th July 2022 Chief Economist's Note Japan will find it harder than China to buck the global tightening trend This is being called a global monetary tightening cycle – but it’s not strictly “global”. While 41 of the 50 central banks under our coverage have raised rates so far, and we expect others to join... 27th June 2022 The Chief Economist's Note In race back to neutral the biggest traps lie in the euro-zone The Federal Reserve dominated markets last week, briefing a super-sized hike in interest rates to the press on Monday and duly delivering it at the conclusion of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It was the... 20th June 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Global food supply shock raises inflation stakes Energy prices are dominating the headlines, but the current inflationary surge is also about what’s happening with global food supplies. We estimate that higher food prices have accounted for about... 13th June 2022 Capital View Why rate hikes needn’t end in recession A spectre is haunting the global economy – the spectre of recession. Central banks have launched what we expect will be the most aggressive round of monetary policy tightening in decades to combat... 7th June 2022 Pagination Previous … Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Current page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Putting Europe’s energy crisis in context I’m away this week, so there’s no note from me. Instead, I’d like to point you in the direction of two recent pieces which provide important context for Russia’s current squeeze on Europe’s energy... 30th August 2022
Chief Economist's Note China’s property woes don’t augur a 2008-style crisis. The good news ends there. Sometimes you can’t catch a break. Just as we received some good news on the global inflation front, problems in China’s economy have resurfaced. The big event last week was the release of July... 22nd August 2022
Chief Economist's Note Don't ignore the supply side – it may be key to getting inflation back to target Finally, some good news on the inflation front. But signs of cooling consumer and producer price pressures in the US are unlikely to silence the vigorous debate among economists about what central... 15th August 2022
Chief Economist's Note In UK PM race, tax cuts are a distraction from economic challenges This is not a grown-up race for the Conservative party leadership. A grown-up race would involve grown-up debate around the economic policies needed for the UK to secure sustainable growth in its... 8th August 2022
Capital View Pragmatic Prime Minister is needed to navigate recession There’s a high chance that the first task of either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister will be to navigate the economy through a recession. That will require them to relinquish their dogmatic... 28th July 2022
Capital View Global Economic Outlook: Recession threat broadens Capital Economics began 2022 with a warning that global growth would be weaker this year than most economists were expecting. Our Global Economics team said multiple headwinds would result in... 26th July 2022
Capital View US Economic Outlook: Economy to avoid recession narrowly Recession, recession, recession. If the sheer volume of headlines screaming about a downturn were any guide, the US economy would be fast entering a recession – if not in one already. In fact, our US... 22nd July 2022
Capital View Euro-zone Q3 Economic Outlook: Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The outlook for the euro-zone has darkened considerably since the start of this year. In January, amid the rapid rise of Omicron infections, the forecast had been for sub-trend growth – but growth... 19th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note The ECB’s got 99 problems but a weak euro ain’t one Next week marks the tenth anniversary of Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. That was the line-in-the-sand moment that paved the way for policies that eventually brought... 18th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note From deglobalisation to outright fracturing – the global economy’s post-pandemic, post-Ukraine reality The one-two punch of the pandemic and war in Ukraine has fundamentally shifted the narrative around globalisation. In 2019, the research prepared for our annual ‘Spotlight’ event explained why we... 11th July 2022
Capital View US Recession – Neither imminent nor inevitable Financial markets are feeling the heat amid fears that aggressive tightening plans by the Federal Reserve have pushed the US economy to the brink of recession. Headlines scream that a downturn is... 7th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note Housing downturn will deepen – but this isn’t 2008 Central bankers giveth and central bankers taketh away. It was their low interest rate policies which helped fuel an extraordinary – and extraordinarily global – rise in house prices. As a... 5th July 2022
Chief Economist's Note Japan will find it harder than China to buck the global tightening trend This is being called a global monetary tightening cycle – but it’s not strictly “global”. While 41 of the 50 central banks under our coverage have raised rates so far, and we expect others to join... 27th June 2022
The Chief Economist's Note In race back to neutral the biggest traps lie in the euro-zone The Federal Reserve dominated markets last week, briefing a super-sized hike in interest rates to the press on Monday and duly delivering it at the conclusion of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. It was the... 20th June 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Global food supply shock raises inflation stakes Energy prices are dominating the headlines, but the current inflationary surge is also about what’s happening with global food supplies. We estimate that higher food prices have accounted for about... 13th June 2022
Capital View Why rate hikes needn’t end in recession A spectre is haunting the global economy – the spectre of recession. Central banks have launched what we expect will be the most aggressive round of monetary policy tightening in decades to combat... 7th June 2022
