Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note A more fractured world won’t dethrone the dollar Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist The past couple of months has seen an upsurge in the number of analysts arguing that the renminbi will start to challenge the dollar’s position as the world’s... 2nd May 2023 Chief Economist's Note The key to navigating a fragmented world is understanding the forces driving it According to ECB head Christine Lagarde, it threatens “lasting instability resulting in lower growth, higher costs and more uncertain trade partnerships”. The IMF warns it is “unlikely to achieve... 24th April 2023 Chief Economist's Note Reflections on ‘March Madness’ Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist The acute phase of last month’s banking crisis — which some, channelling the US College Basketball tournament, have dubbed “March Madness” — has passed. The sense... 17th April 2023 Chief Economist's Note Is commercial real estate the next shoe to drop? A degree of calm has returned to markets over the past week, but some sense of nervousness persists. The hunt is on for the next shoe to drop. Historically, problems in the property sector have been... 27th March 2023 Chief Economist's Note Market squall or global crisis? The three big questions from a tumultuous week Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist When things move as rapidly as they have done over the past week, it’s often difficult to see the wood for the trees. Although the situation is still in flux... 20th March 2023 Chief Economist's Note A morning catch-up Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist While the joint statement issued last night by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and FINMA (the Swiss regulator) offering to provide Credit Suisse with liquidity “if... 16th March 2023 Chief Economist's Note SVB crisis underlines need to tread carefully from here Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist I had intended to write this week’s note on lags in monetary policy – then SVB blew up, Signature Bank followed in quick succession, and US policymakers were forced... 13th March 2023 Chief Economist's Note As payrolls frenzy returns, policymakers face a labour supply challenge Payrolls week invariably means another feeding frenzy in markets over the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But this is a volatile series, and one that frequently gets revised. Any... 6th March 2023 Chief Economist's Note No surprises about Asia-Pacific’s most frequently asked questions We held a series of roundtables in Singapore and Australia last week, discussing our views on the global economy with clients and answering their questions. It was striking how often the same... 27th February 2023 Chief Economist's Note Global economy’s past performance is no guarantee of future long-term results Yogi Berra is often quoted as saying “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”. Long-term forecasting is especially tough. This is a problem of time frames: forecasting what will... 20th February 2023 Chief Economist's Note Inflation-scarred EMs didn’t hesitate to raise rates. They could lead on loosening too. In August 2021, while Jerome Powell was arguing in his COVID-compliant Jackson Hole address that inflation’s resurgence was “transitory”, emerging market central banks across Emerging Europe and Latin... 13th February 2023 Chief Economist's Note Key learnings from last week’s blizzard of information And breathe. After a week that brought us a flurry of global data on inflation, GDP and the labour market – as well as the first major central bank meetings of the year – you can be forgiven for... 6th February 2023 Chief Economist's Note Central bankers can’t save the planet – nor should they be mandated to do so All attention this week will be on a swathe of major central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve’s first rate announcement of the year due on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the... 30th January 2023 Chief Economist's Note The fragmenting debate has finally started – but it doesn’t address the full picture Fracturing is going mainstream. We argued last year that we were entering a new era of global fracturing, in which the world’s major economies coalesce around rival blocs. Since then, a debate has... 23rd January 2023 Chief Economist's Note China does pose a global inflation risk – but not for the reasons most think There’s some dispute as to whether UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan ever actually said “events, dear boy, events” when asked what can blow governments off course. Whatever its provenance, the quote... 16th January 2023 Chief Economist's Note Post-zero-COVID China, the gas crisis undone and the petroyuan’s false promise Markets invariably quieten as the year turns, even as important developments continue to shape the macreconomic landscape. Below are three key issues that we’ve been focusing on during the relative... 9th January 2023 Pagination Previous … Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Current page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 … Next
Chief Economist's Note A more fractured world won’t dethrone the dollar Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist The past couple of months has seen an upsurge in the number of analysts arguing that the renminbi will start to challenge the dollar’s position as the world’s... 2nd May 2023
Chief Economist's Note The key to navigating a fragmented world is understanding the forces driving it According to ECB head Christine Lagarde, it threatens “lasting instability resulting in lower growth, higher costs and more uncertain trade partnerships”. The IMF warns it is “unlikely to achieve... 24th April 2023
Chief Economist's Note Reflections on ‘March Madness’ Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist The acute phase of last month’s banking crisis — which some, channelling the US College Basketball tournament, have dubbed “March Madness” — has passed. The sense... 17th April 2023
Chief Economist's Note Is commercial real estate the next shoe to drop? A degree of calm has returned to markets over the past week, but some sense of nervousness persists. The hunt is on for the next shoe to drop. Historically, problems in the property sector have been... 27th March 2023
Chief Economist's Note Market squall or global crisis? The three big questions from a tumultuous week Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist When things move as rapidly as they have done over the past week, it’s often difficult to see the wood for the trees. Although the situation is still in flux... 20th March 2023
Chief Economist's Note A morning catch-up Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist While the joint statement issued last night by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and FINMA (the Swiss regulator) offering to provide Credit Suisse with liquidity “if... 16th March 2023
Chief Economist's Note SVB crisis underlines need to tread carefully from here Neil Shearing Group Chief Economist I had intended to write this week’s note on lags in monetary policy – then SVB blew up, Signature Bank followed in quick succession, and US policymakers were forced... 13th March 2023
Chief Economist's Note As payrolls frenzy returns, policymakers face a labour supply challenge Payrolls week invariably means another feeding frenzy in markets over the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But this is a volatile series, and one that frequently gets revised. Any... 6th March 2023
Chief Economist's Note No surprises about Asia-Pacific’s most frequently asked questions We held a series of roundtables in Singapore and Australia last week, discussing our views on the global economy with clients and answering their questions. It was striking how often the same... 27th February 2023
Chief Economist's Note Global economy’s past performance is no guarantee of future long-term results Yogi Berra is often quoted as saying “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”. Long-term forecasting is especially tough. This is a problem of time frames: forecasting what will... 20th February 2023
Chief Economist's Note Inflation-scarred EMs didn’t hesitate to raise rates. They could lead on loosening too. In August 2021, while Jerome Powell was arguing in his COVID-compliant Jackson Hole address that inflation’s resurgence was “transitory”, emerging market central banks across Emerging Europe and Latin... 13th February 2023
Chief Economist's Note Key learnings from last week’s blizzard of information And breathe. After a week that brought us a flurry of global data on inflation, GDP and the labour market – as well as the first major central bank meetings of the year – you can be forgiven for... 6th February 2023
Chief Economist's Note Central bankers can’t save the planet – nor should they be mandated to do so All attention this week will be on a swathe of major central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve’s first rate announcement of the year due on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the... 30th January 2023
Chief Economist's Note The fragmenting debate has finally started – but it doesn’t address the full picture Fracturing is going mainstream. We argued last year that we were entering a new era of global fracturing, in which the world’s major economies coalesce around rival blocs. Since then, a debate has... 23rd January 2023
Chief Economist's Note China does pose a global inflation risk – but not for the reasons most think There’s some dispute as to whether UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan ever actually said “events, dear boy, events” when asked what can blow governments off course. Whatever its provenance, the quote... 16th January 2023
Chief Economist's Note Post-zero-COVID China, the gas crisis undone and the petroyuan’s false promise Markets invariably quieten as the year turns, even as important developments continue to shape the macreconomic landscape. Below are three key issues that we’ve been focusing on during the relative... 9th January 2023
