Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Capital View Q2 Euro-zone Economic Outlook: No quick fix this time Our Q2 European Economic Outlook explains why the ECB is likely to focus on price stability meaning it will end its asset purchases soon and raise rates to positive territory this year. The latest... 27th May 2022 Capital View Transcript: What rising rates mean for the commercial property outlook Aggressive tightening moves from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank are shaking up the outlook for commercial property returns. In a 19th May online briefing , Chief... 25th May 2022 Uncategorised Q2 China economic outlook: No quick fix this time Official China GDP data suggest that q/q growth remained robust in the first quarter. However, we don’t think this accurately reflects the reality on the ground. Our proprietary China Activity Proxy... 24th May 2022 Capital View Yield curve positioning after peak inflation Although Treasury yields have dropped back in recent weeks amid signs that inflation has peaked, we don’t think it makes sense to extend duration. Of course, the longer a bond’s remaining life, the... 24th May 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Whipping inflation doesn’t necessarily require a recession – but some may not get a choice A debate is raging among market participants about whether inflation has accelerated to such an extent that a recession has now become necessary in order to bring it back down. As we explained in a... 23rd May 2022 Capital View S&P 500’s valuation suggests downside but not disaster While the valuation of the S&P 500 appears high in absolute terms – even after the falls in the index in 2022 so far – it seems far less stretched once the still historically low real yields of US... 19th May 2022 The Chief Economist's Note In this new age of uncertainty, central banks should double down on inflation targeting 25 years ago this month the Bank of England was granted operational independence by the then-Chancellor Gordon Brown. Uncomfortably for current members of the Monetary Policy Committee, the... 16th May 2022 Capital View Q2 Global Economic Outlook: Paying the Price of High Inflation Our Q2 Global Economic Outlook warns that the world economy faces higher inflation and weaker growth than many forecasters expect this year. The latest edition of this quarterly report provides... 11th May 2022 Chart In Focus China's FX reserve options are limited by its choice of friends China may, quite reasonably, be considering how to safeguard its foreign exchange reserves in light of the West’s financial sanctions against Russia. It has no good options, says Chief Asia Economist... 8th May 2022 The Chief Economist's Note China’s economic challenges won’t stop with defeating Omicron All three of the world’s major economic blocs are now facing significant headwinds. In the US, these stem from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve, while the euro-zone faces pressure from a huge... 3rd May 2022 Uncategorised US Economic Outlook: Economy will bend not break under higher rates The US economy will bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed, according to our Q2 US Economic Outlook. Our latest US economy predictions explain how, having... 28th April 2022 Capital View This wave of globalisation was over long before Russia invaded Ukraine China's re-emergence as an economic power was the big driver of globalisation over the past two decades. But it also contained the seeds of a fracturing Sino-US relationship. Globalisation is now in... 25th April 2022 The Chief Economist's Note From ‘Roaring’ to ‘Recessionary Twenties’ – how convincing is the market’s latest story? Financial markets love a good story. Twelve months ago, the dominant narrative was that we were heading into another “Roaring Twenties”, with the global economy set to see years of above-trend growth... 25th April 2022 Capital View The French presidential election – The macro and market risks of Le Pen vs Macron The outcome of the French presidential election on 24th April could have far-reaching consequences for economies and markets. In a 21st April online briefing , Andrew Kenningham and Jessica Hinds from... 21st April 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Reports of the dollar’s demise are (still) greatly exaggerated The debate about the role of the dollar in the global economy is an old one. Over the years it’s been given fresh life by events including the creation of the euro, China’s rise and the Global... 4th April 2022 Capital View Back to the 1970s? As inflation surges and growth slows, there’s little wonder that comparisons are being drawn with the macroeconomic experience of the seventies. Parallels are certainly building, but are we likely to... 1st April 2022 Pagination Previous … Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Current page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 … Next
Capital View Q2 Euro-zone Economic Outlook: No quick fix this time Our Q2 European Economic Outlook explains why the ECB is likely to focus on price stability meaning it will end its asset purchases soon and raise rates to positive territory this year. The latest... 27th May 2022
Capital View Transcript: What rising rates mean for the commercial property outlook Aggressive tightening moves from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank are shaking up the outlook for commercial property returns. In a 19th May online briefing , Chief... 25th May 2022
Uncategorised Q2 China economic outlook: No quick fix this time Official China GDP data suggest that q/q growth remained robust in the first quarter. However, we don’t think this accurately reflects the reality on the ground. Our proprietary China Activity Proxy... 24th May 2022
Capital View Yield curve positioning after peak inflation Although Treasury yields have dropped back in recent weeks amid signs that inflation has peaked, we don’t think it makes sense to extend duration. Of course, the longer a bond’s remaining life, the... 24th May 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Whipping inflation doesn’t necessarily require a recession – but some may not get a choice A debate is raging among market participants about whether inflation has accelerated to such an extent that a recession has now become necessary in order to bring it back down. As we explained in a... 23rd May 2022
Capital View S&P 500’s valuation suggests downside but not disaster While the valuation of the S&P 500 appears high in absolute terms – even after the falls in the index in 2022 so far – it seems far less stretched once the still historically low real yields of US... 19th May 2022
The Chief Economist's Note In this new age of uncertainty, central banks should double down on inflation targeting 25 years ago this month the Bank of England was granted operational independence by the then-Chancellor Gordon Brown. Uncomfortably for current members of the Monetary Policy Committee, the... 16th May 2022
Capital View Q2 Global Economic Outlook: Paying the Price of High Inflation Our Q2 Global Economic Outlook warns that the world economy faces higher inflation and weaker growth than many forecasters expect this year. The latest edition of this quarterly report provides... 11th May 2022
Chart In Focus China's FX reserve options are limited by its choice of friends China may, quite reasonably, be considering how to safeguard its foreign exchange reserves in light of the West’s financial sanctions against Russia. It has no good options, says Chief Asia Economist... 8th May 2022
The Chief Economist's Note China’s economic challenges won’t stop with defeating Omicron All three of the world’s major economic blocs are now facing significant headwinds. In the US, these stem from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve, while the euro-zone faces pressure from a huge... 3rd May 2022
Uncategorised US Economic Outlook: Economy will bend not break under higher rates The US economy will bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed, according to our Q2 US Economic Outlook. Our latest US economy predictions explain how, having... 28th April 2022
Capital View This wave of globalisation was over long before Russia invaded Ukraine China's re-emergence as an economic power was the big driver of globalisation over the past two decades. But it also contained the seeds of a fracturing Sino-US relationship. Globalisation is now in... 25th April 2022
The Chief Economist's Note From ‘Roaring’ to ‘Recessionary Twenties’ – how convincing is the market’s latest story? Financial markets love a good story. Twelve months ago, the dominant narrative was that we were heading into another “Roaring Twenties”, with the global economy set to see years of above-trend growth... 25th April 2022
Capital View The French presidential election – The macro and market risks of Le Pen vs Macron The outcome of the French presidential election on 24th April could have far-reaching consequences for economies and markets. In a 21st April online briefing , Andrew Kenningham and Jessica Hinds from... 21st April 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Reports of the dollar’s demise are (still) greatly exaggerated The debate about the role of the dollar in the global economy is an old one. Over the years it’s been given fresh life by events including the creation of the euro, China’s rise and the Global... 4th April 2022
Capital View Back to the 1970s? As inflation surges and growth slows, there’s little wonder that comparisons are being drawn with the macroeconomic experience of the seventies. Parallels are certainly building, but are we likely to... 1st April 2022
