Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Capital View China economic outlook: Cyclical trough, tepid rebound The Chinese economy will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction, though policy support should provide some limited improvement later... 8th March 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Russia’s economy is already hurting from Western sanctions. Worse is to come. Vladimir Putin believes Western sanctions are “akin to a declaration of war”. The Russian President’s reported comment gives a sense of his outrage at the punitive response to his invasion of Ukraine... 7th March 2022 Chart In Focus Sanctions are pushing Russia's already-fragile banks to the brink Even before the barrage of western sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's banks stood out for their bad loans and low capital ratios. They’re now vulnerable to a dangerous... 2nd March 2022 Chief Economist's Note China is one of globalisation’s winners. It won’t throw that away for Russia. Amid the outpouring of punditry which has followed the start of war in Ukraine is the idea that this conflict is a manifestation of the fracturing of the global political and economic order. On one... 28th February 2022 Capital View Russia-Ukraine and the macro outlook: Questions in need of answers The full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces raises the stakes significantly for economic and market outcomes. Our economists have identified eight key questions about this crisis so far to... 24th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note We need to talk about QT The debate about how quickly and how far central banks should raise interest rates has intensified in recent weeks, but relatively little attention has been paid to the role that quantitative... 21st February 2022 Capital View Global economy outlook: Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower than many forecasters anticipate this year, but most central banks will have to tighten policy regardless, our Q1 Global Economic Outlook warns. Our latest Outlook maps... 17th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Navigating the path back to normal As central banks in advanced economies begin to tighten policy, two questions hang over financial markets: how quickly will policymakers increase interest rates and how far might rates ultimately need... 14th February 2022 Capital View UK economy outlook: More inflation, more interest rate hikes We think inflation will be the key challenge for the UK economy in 2022. The combination of rising global costs and a hike in domestic utility prices at the start of April will take CPI inflation up... 8th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note How policy makers should – and shouldn’t – tackle the energy price inflation shock Another week, another set of inflation figures to dial up the pressure on central banks. This time it was the ECB’s turn to feel the heat, with flash data showing that inflation hit 5.1% y/y in... 7th February 2022 Five Questions With... Jason Tuvey on Turkey's unsustainable economic path The collapse of the Turkish lira was the big EM story of 2021. Although this year has started on a quieter footing, Jason Tuvey, our Senior Emerging Markets Economist, warns President Erdogan's... 1st February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Look to labour markets for clues about the future path of inflation and interest rates Last week I offered a post-mortem on inflation’s dramatic return and argued that the key question now was whether it would spread from energy and core goods to other areas of the economy, particularly... 31st January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022 Chart In Focus China's baby bust spells more trouble for real estate One of the more striking numbers in Beijing’s Q4 data haul was an estimate that China’s population grew by just 0.03% last year. 2022 is looking even more likely to be the year that China’s population... 18th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here. Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics, and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021 Pagination Previous … Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Current page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 … Next
Capital View China economic outlook: Cyclical trough, tepid rebound The Chinese economy will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction, though policy support should provide some limited improvement later... 8th March 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Russia’s economy is already hurting from Western sanctions. Worse is to come. Vladimir Putin believes Western sanctions are “akin to a declaration of war”. The Russian President’s reported comment gives a sense of his outrage at the punitive response to his invasion of Ukraine... 7th March 2022
Chart In Focus Sanctions are pushing Russia's already-fragile banks to the brink Even before the barrage of western sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's banks stood out for their bad loans and low capital ratios. They’re now vulnerable to a dangerous... 2nd March 2022
Chief Economist's Note China is one of globalisation’s winners. It won’t throw that away for Russia. Amid the outpouring of punditry which has followed the start of war in Ukraine is the idea that this conflict is a manifestation of the fracturing of the global political and economic order. On one... 28th February 2022
Capital View Russia-Ukraine and the macro outlook: Questions in need of answers The full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces raises the stakes significantly for economic and market outcomes. Our economists have identified eight key questions about this crisis so far to... 24th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note We need to talk about QT The debate about how quickly and how far central banks should raise interest rates has intensified in recent weeks, but relatively little attention has been paid to the role that quantitative... 21st February 2022
Capital View Global economy outlook: Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower than many forecasters anticipate this year, but most central banks will have to tighten policy regardless, our Q1 Global Economic Outlook warns. Our latest Outlook maps... 17th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Navigating the path back to normal As central banks in advanced economies begin to tighten policy, two questions hang over financial markets: how quickly will policymakers increase interest rates and how far might rates ultimately need... 14th February 2022
Capital View UK economy outlook: More inflation, more interest rate hikes We think inflation will be the key challenge for the UK economy in 2022. The combination of rising global costs and a hike in domestic utility prices at the start of April will take CPI inflation up... 8th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note How policy makers should – and shouldn’t – tackle the energy price inflation shock Another week, another set of inflation figures to dial up the pressure on central banks. This time it was the ECB’s turn to feel the heat, with flash data showing that inflation hit 5.1% y/y in... 7th February 2022
Five Questions With... Jason Tuvey on Turkey's unsustainable economic path The collapse of the Turkish lira was the big EM story of 2021. Although this year has started on a quieter footing, Jason Tuvey, our Senior Emerging Markets Economist, warns President Erdogan's... 1st February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Look to labour markets for clues about the future path of inflation and interest rates Last week I offered a post-mortem on inflation’s dramatic return and argued that the key question now was whether it would spread from energy and core goods to other areas of the economy, particularly... 31st January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022
Chart In Focus China's baby bust spells more trouble for real estate One of the more striking numbers in Beijing’s Q4 data haul was an estimate that China’s population grew by just 0.03% last year. 2022 is looking even more likely to be the year that China’s population... 18th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here. Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics, and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021