Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics The Chief Economist's Note EM crises are old news – today’s risks from higher rates lie in housing In justifying his dissenting call for a 50-basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, St Louis Fed President James Bullard cited the experience of the 1994 tightening cycle, arguing that... 28th March 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Damned if they don’t – central bank tightening risks recession but inaction would be worse The key message to come from meetings of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England last week, and the European Central Bank the week before, was that the war in Ukraine has not deterred central bankers... 21st March 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Central banks will press on with rate hikes, despite the war’s uncertainties Just a few weeks ago, central bankers were grappling with the considerable challenge of maintaining post-pandemic recoveries in the face of a generational surge in inflation. Now, against the backdrop... 14th March 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Russia’s economy is already hurting from Western sanctions. Worse is to come. Vladimir Putin believes Western sanctions are “akin to a declaration of war”. The Russian President’s reported comment gives a sense of his outrage at the punitive response to his invasion of Ukraine... 7th March 2022 Chief Economist's Note China is one of globalisation’s winners. It won’t throw that away for Russia. Amid the outpouring of punditry which has followed the start of war in Ukraine is the idea that this conflict is a manifestation of the fracturing of the global political and economic order. On one... 28th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note We need to talk about QT The debate about how quickly and how far central banks should raise interest rates has intensified in recent weeks, but relatively little attention has been paid to the role that quantitative... 21st February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Navigating the path back to normal As central banks in advanced economies begin to tighten policy, two questions hang over financial markets: how quickly will policymakers increase interest rates and how far might rates ultimately need... 14th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note How policy makers should – and shouldn’t – tackle the energy price inflation shock Another week, another set of inflation figures to dial up the pressure on central banks. This time it was the ECB’s turn to feel the heat, with flash data showing that inflation hit 5.1% y/y in... 7th February 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Look to labour markets for clues about the future path of inflation and interest rates Last week I offered a post-mortem on inflation’s dramatic return and argued that the key question now was whether it would spread from energy and core goods to other areas of the economy, particularly... 31st January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here. Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022 The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics, and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Our hits and misses for 2021 – and lessons for the coming year We’ve reached that traditional time of year when research teams send their predictions for the year to come. We’ll publish our contribution at the end of this week. But before looking ahead, it’s... 13th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Omicron and inflation: The supply-demand forces that will determine price outcomes Is Omicron inflationary? It’s one of the questions we’ve been asked most often since the identification of this new, and potentially more virulent, strain. Like much to do with Omicron, a lot remains... 6th December 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Omicron’s stark reminder that the global economic recovery hinges on the pandemic It says something when a currency loses 20% of its value in a matter of hours and still isn’t the week’s major market event. While Turkey will doubtless continue to struggle with the ramifications of... 29th November 2021 The Chief Economist's Note Central bankers face big messaging test as strains of recovery show One important point that’s easy to miss in the ebb and flow of the monthly data is just how quickly the global economy has rebounded from the COVID crisis. Global GDP fell by just over 10% between Q4... 22nd November 2021 Pagination Previous … Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Current page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 … Next
The Chief Economist's Note EM crises are old news – today’s risks from higher rates lie in housing In justifying his dissenting call for a 50-basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, St Louis Fed President James Bullard cited the experience of the 1994 tightening cycle, arguing that... 28th March 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Damned if they don’t – central bank tightening risks recession but inaction would be worse The key message to come from meetings of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England last week, and the European Central Bank the week before, was that the war in Ukraine has not deterred central bankers... 21st March 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Central banks will press on with rate hikes, despite the war’s uncertainties Just a few weeks ago, central bankers were grappling with the considerable challenge of maintaining post-pandemic recoveries in the face of a generational surge in inflation. Now, against the backdrop... 14th March 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Russia’s economy is already hurting from Western sanctions. Worse is to come. Vladimir Putin believes Western sanctions are “akin to a declaration of war”. The Russian President’s reported comment gives a sense of his outrage at the punitive response to his invasion of Ukraine... 7th March 2022
Chief Economist's Note China is one of globalisation’s winners. It won’t throw that away for Russia. Amid the outpouring of punditry which has followed the start of war in Ukraine is the idea that this conflict is a manifestation of the fracturing of the global political and economic order. On one... 28th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note We need to talk about QT The debate about how quickly and how far central banks should raise interest rates has intensified in recent weeks, but relatively little attention has been paid to the role that quantitative... 21st February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Navigating the path back to normal As central banks in advanced economies begin to tighten policy, two questions hang over financial markets: how quickly will policymakers increase interest rates and how far might rates ultimately need... 14th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note How policy makers should – and shouldn’t – tackle the energy price inflation shock Another week, another set of inflation figures to dial up the pressure on central banks. This time it was the ECB’s turn to feel the heat, with flash data showing that inflation hit 5.1% y/y in... 7th February 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Look to labour markets for clues about the future path of inflation and interest rates Last week I offered a post-mortem on inflation’s dramatic return and argued that the key question now was whether it would spread from energy and core goods to other areas of the economy, particularly... 31st January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note What got missed? A post-mortem of inflation’s dramatic return Some of the most thoughtful end-of-year pieces that have been published over the past couple of months have considered why economists failed to foresee the current surge in inflation. It’s something... 24th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note What could go wrong? The risks to our 2022 calls Our “World in 2022” event last week outlined our macro and market views for the year ahead. You can find key takeaways here. Many of the questions from clients, however, centred on the risks to our... 17th January 2022
The Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2021 It comes as no surprise that – along with the rest of the market – we’ve spent the year closely tracking growth and inflation dynamics, and how they are being influenced by the pandemic. But we haven... 20th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Our hits and misses for 2021 – and lessons for the coming year We’ve reached that traditional time of year when research teams send their predictions for the year to come. We’ll publish our contribution at the end of this week. But before looking ahead, it’s... 13th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Omicron and inflation: The supply-demand forces that will determine price outcomes Is Omicron inflationary? It’s one of the questions we’ve been asked most often since the identification of this new, and potentially more virulent, strain. Like much to do with Omicron, a lot remains... 6th December 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Omicron’s stark reminder that the global economic recovery hinges on the pandemic It says something when a currency loses 20% of its value in a matter of hours and still isn’t the week’s major market event. While Turkey will doubtless continue to struggle with the ramifications of... 29th November 2021
The Chief Economist's Note Central bankers face big messaging test as strains of recovery show One important point that’s easy to miss in the ebb and flow of the monthly data is just how quickly the global economy has rebounded from the COVID crisis. Global GDP fell by just over 10% between Q4... 22nd November 2021
