Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Key learnings from last week’s blizzard of information And breathe. After a week that brought us a flurry of global data on inflation, GDP and the labour market – as well as the first major central bank meetings of the year – you can be forgiven for... 6th February 2023 Chief Economist's Note Central bankers can’t save the planet – nor should they be mandated to do so All attention this week will be on a swathe of major central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve’s first rate announcement of the year due on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the... 30th January 2023 Chief Economist's Note The fragmenting debate has finally started – but it doesn’t address the full picture Fracturing is going mainstream. We argued last year that we were entering a new era of global fracturing, in which the world’s major economies coalesce around rival blocs. Since then, a debate has... 23rd January 2023 Chief Economist's Note China does pose a global inflation risk – but not for the reasons most think There’s some dispute as to whether UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan ever actually said “events, dear boy, events” when asked what can blow governments off course. Whatever its provenance, the quote... 16th January 2023 Chief Economist's Note Post-zero-COVID China, the gas crisis undone and the petroyuan’s false promise Markets invariably quieten as the year turns, even as important developments continue to shape the macreconomic landscape. Below are three key issues that we’ve been focusing on during the relative... 9th January 2023 Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2022 Five key reads from 2022 It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the next twelve months. You can find our contribution on a dedicated “ World in 2023” page... 19th December 2022 Chief Economist's Note The year’s big story in macro and markets will ripple into 2023 as well We had expected 2022 to be a year in which growth generally disappointed, central banks struggled with sticky inflation and the lingering effects of the pandemic remained the biggest source of... 12th December 2022 Chief Economist's Note EMs have moved on from crises past but don’t discount new debt risks A recurring fear in sell-side research and market commentary this year has been that a combination of tightening by the Federal Reserve and a strong US dollar will precipitate a wave of debt crises in... 5th December 2022 Chief Economist's Note Get ready for a year of recession – but it won’t be all bad news The Thanksgiving holiday marks the point in the calendar where sell-side economists start to think about their “what to expect next year” pieces. We’ll be publishing our own contributions over the... 28th November 2022 Chief Economist's Note The UK’s hard lesson in fiscal discipline is globally relevant My previous overseas client trip was at the height of the Truss-Kwarteng madness and involved flying 7,000 miles to Singapore for meetings dominated by talk of a UK government gone wild. On that note... 21st November 2022 Chief Economist's Note We need to understand inflation to control it. That’s a problem. There’s a dirty secret at the heart of economics: economists – and by extension central banks – understand less about inflation dynamics than we would like to admit. Granted, we can model with... 14th November 2022 Chief Economist's Note Climate challenge will depend on economics in an era of global fracturing Anyone expecting more than photo ops and lofty pronouncements from COP27 is likely to be disappointed. The annual climate summit, which opened in Sharm El Sheikh yesterday, may give a small nudge to... 7th November 2022 Chief Economist's Note Why the euro-zone’s darkening economic outlook isn’t spooking markets (yet) A combination of the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the UK’s self-inflicted budget crisis , and Xi Jinping’s efforts to consolidate power at China’s 20th Party Congress has kept Europe out... 24th October 2022 Chief Economist's Note The global economic outlook is bad. Here’s how it could get worse. Global economic officials were in a grim mood at last week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington – and it wasn’t just to do with the presence of the soon-to-be-defenestrated UK Chancellor. While... 17th October 2022 Chief Economist's Note Just because the RBA blinked doesn’t mean other central banks will follow A 25-basis point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week was enough to raise hopes in the market that other central banks would soon “pivot” to a more moderate pace of monetary policy... 10th October 2022 Chief Economist's Note Globalisation isn’t dead but it is in flux – get ready for an age of economic fracturing The fracturing of the global economy is the theme of a major report we’re publishing this week as part of our annual ‘Spotlight’ series of written research and in-person and online presentations. It’s... 3rd October 2022 Pagination Previous Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Current page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Key learnings from last week’s blizzard of information And breathe. After a week that brought us a flurry of global data on inflation, GDP and the labour market – as well as the first major central bank meetings of the year – you can be forgiven for... 6th February 2023
Chief Economist's Note Central bankers can’t save the planet – nor should they be mandated to do so All attention this week will be on a swathe of major central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve’s first rate announcement of the year due on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England and the... 30th January 2023
Chief Economist's Note The fragmenting debate has finally started – but it doesn’t address the full picture Fracturing is going mainstream. We argued last year that we were entering a new era of global fracturing, in which the world’s major economies coalesce around rival blocs. Since then, a debate has... 23rd January 2023
Chief Economist's Note China does pose a global inflation risk – but not for the reasons most think There’s some dispute as to whether UK Prime Minister Harold Macmillan ever actually said “events, dear boy, events” when asked what can blow governments off course. Whatever its provenance, the quote... 16th January 2023
Chief Economist's Note Post-zero-COVID China, the gas crisis undone and the petroyuan’s false promise Markets invariably quieten as the year turns, even as important developments continue to shape the macreconomic landscape. Below are three key issues that we’ve been focusing on during the relative... 9th January 2023
Chief Economist's Note Five key reads from 2022 Five key reads from 2022 It’s that time of year when economists set out their views of what to expect over the next twelve months. You can find our contribution on a dedicated “ World in 2023” page... 19th December 2022
Chief Economist's Note The year’s big story in macro and markets will ripple into 2023 as well We had expected 2022 to be a year in which growth generally disappointed, central banks struggled with sticky inflation and the lingering effects of the pandemic remained the biggest source of... 12th December 2022
Chief Economist's Note EMs have moved on from crises past but don’t discount new debt risks A recurring fear in sell-side research and market commentary this year has been that a combination of tightening by the Federal Reserve and a strong US dollar will precipitate a wave of debt crises in... 5th December 2022
Chief Economist's Note Get ready for a year of recession – but it won’t be all bad news The Thanksgiving holiday marks the point in the calendar where sell-side economists start to think about their “what to expect next year” pieces. We’ll be publishing our own contributions over the... 28th November 2022
Chief Economist's Note The UK’s hard lesson in fiscal discipline is globally relevant My previous overseas client trip was at the height of the Truss-Kwarteng madness and involved flying 7,000 miles to Singapore for meetings dominated by talk of a UK government gone wild. On that note... 21st November 2022
Chief Economist's Note We need to understand inflation to control it. That’s a problem. There’s a dirty secret at the heart of economics: economists – and by extension central banks – understand less about inflation dynamics than we would like to admit. Granted, we can model with... 14th November 2022
Chief Economist's Note Climate challenge will depend on economics in an era of global fracturing Anyone expecting more than photo ops and lofty pronouncements from COP27 is likely to be disappointed. The annual climate summit, which opened in Sharm El Sheikh yesterday, may give a small nudge to... 7th November 2022
Chief Economist's Note Why the euro-zone’s darkening economic outlook isn’t spooking markets (yet) A combination of the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the UK’s self-inflicted budget crisis , and Xi Jinping’s efforts to consolidate power at China’s 20th Party Congress has kept Europe out... 24th October 2022
Chief Economist's Note The global economic outlook is bad. Here’s how it could get worse. Global economic officials were in a grim mood at last week’s IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington – and it wasn’t just to do with the presence of the soon-to-be-defenestrated UK Chancellor. While... 17th October 2022
Chief Economist's Note Just because the RBA blinked doesn’t mean other central banks will follow A 25-basis point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week was enough to raise hopes in the market that other central banks would soon “pivot” to a more moderate pace of monetary policy... 10th October 2022
Chief Economist's Note Globalisation isn’t dead but it is in flux – get ready for an age of economic fracturing The fracturing of the global economy is the theme of a major report we’re publishing this week as part of our annual ‘Spotlight’ series of written research and in-person and online presentations. It’s... 3rd October 2022
