Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note The economics of price shocks – and lessons from 2022 Client visits in New York last week offered a timely, if expensive, reminder of how inflation affects economies. Before the pandemic, a beer in a Midtown bar would cost $10; now you would be lucky to... 5th May 2026 Chief Economist's Note Global imbalances: Back in focus, but in a different world While financial markets have swung on the apparent de-escalation and re-escalation of the Iran war, the bigger structural story is quietly reasserting itself: global imbalances are back, and were a... 21st April 2026 Chief Economist's Note The Iran rift and the Atlantic reality – why its allies remain tied to the US One certainty of the Iran war is that its consequences will reverberate far beyond the regional conflict. A question that repeatedly comes up in conversations with clients surrounds the geopolitical... 16th April 2026 Chief Economist's Note Talks end without deal; US announces naval blockade The breakdown in talks between the US and Iran does not necessarily signal the end of efforts to resolve the conflict but the introduction of a US naval blockade on Iranian shipments transiting the... 13th April 2026 Chief Economist's Note Ceasefire announced – but significant hurdles remain There are significant hurdles to overcome before the ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel and Iran can translate into a lasting end to the war. But if it were to hold, it would move outcomes... 8th April 2026 Chief Economist's Note Iran war: forecasting the fallout, answering your questions Last week we published revised economic and market forecasts based on different scenarios for how the Iran war develops. In this week’s note, I answer the key questions we have been asked in... 30th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note Supply-side shocks take centre stage in a fragmenting world The Iran conflict is more than just another shock to the global economy; it’s a reminder that the long-neglected supply side is becoming an increasingly potent source of macroeconomic instability... 24th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note This is not 2022: Why this energy shock demands a different policy response The surge in global oil and gas prices that has followed the outbreak of war with Iran has inevitably drawn comparisons with the energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago... 13th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note How will the Iran war affect the global economy? A version of this note was originally published by Chatham House on Friday, 6th March. With the war with Iran in its second week, the most immediate and tragic costs are measured in lives lost. Yet... 10th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note The Middle East conflict: What it means for economies and markets The war in the Middle East raises a broad set of macro and market questions. All of our analysis is collected on this page, and our summary views on some of the most pressing issues are outlined below... 6th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note Will China finally pass its big rebalancing test? Fresh conflict in the Middle East has understandably consumed the global macro news cycle – after all, a sharp and sustained rise in energy prices risks an inflationary resurgence which could, in the... 4th March 2026 Chief Economist's Note On that AI "doom loop" I will return with my usual note on Monday. In the meantime, given the volume of client enquiries prompted by Citrini’s paper on the consequences of an AI-driven “abundance of intelligence” - and the... 27th February 2026 Chief Economist's Note The resilient global economy – and the imbalances lurking beneath Over the past year the global economy has been buffeted on several fronts: from escalating trade tariffs to assaults on policy norms and longstanding institutions, and now warnings of a fracture in... 9th February 2026 Chief Economist's Note Fear and loathing in currency markets This has been a turbulent past week for the dollar. A sharp sell-off at the start of last week revived the “Sell America” narrative, before the currency partially recovered after Donald Trump... 2nd February 2026 Chief Economist's Note Ignore the Truss comparisons – rising JGB yields reflect Japan’s new normal Is the widow-maker out of business? For years, investor bets that yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) would rise from rock-bottom levels were routinely crushed by the Bank of Japan’s... 26th January 2026 Chief Economist's Note Deflation at home, disruption abroad – China’s growth model is a lose-lose The aphorism “where you stand depends on where you sit” is well applied to the global economy. Beyond the value of reconnecting with clients, my trip to the Middle East and Asia last week was a... 19th January 2026 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note The economics of price shocks – and lessons from 2022 Client visits in New York last week offered a timely, if expensive, reminder of how inflation affects economies. Before the pandemic, a beer in a Midtown bar would cost $10; now you would be lucky to... 5th May 2026
Chief Economist's Note Global imbalances: Back in focus, but in a different world While financial markets have swung on the apparent de-escalation and re-escalation of the Iran war, the bigger structural story is quietly reasserting itself: global imbalances are back, and were a... 21st April 2026
Chief Economist's Note The Iran rift and the Atlantic reality – why its allies remain tied to the US One certainty of the Iran war is that its consequences will reverberate far beyond the regional conflict. A question that repeatedly comes up in conversations with clients surrounds the geopolitical... 16th April 2026
Chief Economist's Note Talks end without deal; US announces naval blockade The breakdown in talks between the US and Iran does not necessarily signal the end of efforts to resolve the conflict but the introduction of a US naval blockade on Iranian shipments transiting the... 13th April 2026
Chief Economist's Note Ceasefire announced – but significant hurdles remain There are significant hurdles to overcome before the ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel and Iran can translate into a lasting end to the war. But if it were to hold, it would move outcomes... 8th April 2026
Chief Economist's Note Iran war: forecasting the fallout, answering your questions Last week we published revised economic and market forecasts based on different scenarios for how the Iran war develops. In this week’s note, I answer the key questions we have been asked in... 30th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note Supply-side shocks take centre stage in a fragmenting world The Iran conflict is more than just another shock to the global economy; it’s a reminder that the long-neglected supply side is becoming an increasingly potent source of macroeconomic instability... 24th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note This is not 2022: Why this energy shock demands a different policy response The surge in global oil and gas prices that has followed the outbreak of war with Iran has inevitably drawn comparisons with the energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago... 13th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note How will the Iran war affect the global economy? A version of this note was originally published by Chatham House on Friday, 6th March. With the war with Iran in its second week, the most immediate and tragic costs are measured in lives lost. Yet... 10th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note The Middle East conflict: What it means for economies and markets The war in the Middle East raises a broad set of macro and market questions. All of our analysis is collected on this page, and our summary views on some of the most pressing issues are outlined below... 6th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note Will China finally pass its big rebalancing test? Fresh conflict in the Middle East has understandably consumed the global macro news cycle – after all, a sharp and sustained rise in energy prices risks an inflationary resurgence which could, in the... 4th March 2026
Chief Economist's Note On that AI "doom loop" I will return with my usual note on Monday. In the meantime, given the volume of client enquiries prompted by Citrini’s paper on the consequences of an AI-driven “abundance of intelligence” - and the... 27th February 2026
Chief Economist's Note The resilient global economy – and the imbalances lurking beneath Over the past year the global economy has been buffeted on several fronts: from escalating trade tariffs to assaults on policy norms and longstanding institutions, and now warnings of a fracture in... 9th February 2026
Chief Economist's Note Fear and loathing in currency markets This has been a turbulent past week for the dollar. A sharp sell-off at the start of last week revived the “Sell America” narrative, before the currency partially recovered after Donald Trump... 2nd February 2026
Chief Economist's Note Ignore the Truss comparisons – rising JGB yields reflect Japan’s new normal Is the widow-maker out of business? For years, investor bets that yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) would rise from rock-bottom levels were routinely crushed by the Bank of Japan’s... 26th January 2026
Chief Economist's Note Deflation at home, disruption abroad – China’s growth model is a lose-lose The aphorism “where you stand depends on where you sit” is well applied to the global economy. Beyond the value of reconnecting with clients, my trip to the Middle East and Asia last week was a... 19th January 2026
