Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note Seven themes for 2024 Soft growth, falling inflation, lower interest rates, bond market rallies, and an election bonanza – here are the key themes that will shape 2024. Growth will undershoot the consensus. Economic growth... 27th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note Recession? It’s a question of definition Harry Truman’s quip about a recession being “when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours”, captures many of the difficulties in both identifying when these downturns hit... 20th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note When it comes to questions of fiscal sustainability, words matter as much as actions Bond markets have been on the proverbial rollercoaster over the past month, with long-dated yields shooting up over the second half of October only for both long and short-dated yields to collapse... 13th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note Sunak’s summit focus on AI’s risks shouldn’t detract from its economic potential A version of this note was published in The Times on 7th November, 2023 World leaders gathered at Bletchley Park, the home of Britain’s wartime code breakers, last week to hammer out a joint response... 6th November 2023 Chief Economist's Note Fracturing is more in focus as global tensions rise – but it’s still misunderstood An intense flurry of diplomatic activity last week laid bare the fault lines of a fracturing global economy. In the Middle East, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and Rishi Sunak made separate visits to Israel... 23rd October 2023 Chief Economist's Note ZIRP is dead. Here’s what follows the ultra-low rates era. Global bond markets have clawed back some of the wrenching losses of recent weeks, but yields remain far above levels seen over much of the post-global financial crisis period. This shift upwards... 16th October 2023 Chief Economist's Note The bond bears are about to make contact with economic reality A strong September headline payrolls number whipsawed global bond markets on Friday but the net result was that yields ended the week at post-GFC highs. According to the financial commentariat, this... 9th October 2023 Chief Economist's Note It’s all connected – why investors can’t ignore the global economy’s megatrends Last week we published ‘AI, Economies and Markets’, our in-depth report on the economic and market implications of artificial intelligence. The report and accompanying data painted a positive picture... 2nd October 2023 Chief Economist's Note What the markets think about AI This week marks the launch of our annual Spotlight report, which will land in client inboxes tomorrow. This year we are exploring the economic and market impact of artificial intelligence. As with any... 25th September 2023 Chief Economist's Note Oil, China and false inflation narratives Investor nerves in recent weeks have been tested by two opposing inflation concerns. The first is that China is on the cusp of a deflationary spiral that will pull down the rest of the global economy... 18th September 2023 Chief Economist's Note The five questions that will determine AI’s ultimate economic and market impact The financial press is full of hot takes about how AI will revolutionise our lives, for better or worse. They are fuelling an often-breathless debate around this emerging technology that can leave... 11th September 2023 Chief Economist's Note China’s slowdown is a problem for Tesla and Zambia. Less so for global growth. In August 2015, a botched change to the way that Beijing managed the renminbi triggered global panic amid worries that a hard landing in China would take the world economy down with it. Crisis was... 21st August 2023 Chief Economist's Note There’s a reason to worry about Chinese data – but it’s not deflation Having spent the past year worrying over runaway inflation in the major advanced economies, markets are now having to contend with the apparent threat of deflation in China. July’s 0.3% y/y fall in... 14th August 2023 Chief Economist's Note Revisiting the case for ‘immaculate disinflation’ As Europe and North America decamp for the beaches, an intense debate has broken out among economists. It was framed neatly in a Tweet a few weeks ago by Nobel-Laureate Paul Krugman: Put differently... 7th August 2023 Chief Economist's Note How to get a handle on AI’s many implications for economies and markets Towards the end of June, we raised our two-year forecasts for the S&P 500, advising clients that we now expect the benchmark to rise by around 50% between now and the end of 2025. It’s a bullish call... 10th July 2023 Chief Economist's Note ‘Greedflation’ debate muddles inflation’s symptoms with its cause It’s energising would-be trustbusters in the White House. It’s dragging UK supermarket bosses before Parliament. And, according to the IMF, it’s played a role in driving inflation across Europe... 3rd July 2023 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note Seven themes for 2024 Soft growth, falling inflation, lower interest rates, bond market rallies, and an election bonanza – here are the key themes that will shape 2024. Growth will undershoot the consensus. Economic growth... 27th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note Recession? It’s a question of definition Harry Truman’s quip about a recession being “when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours”, captures many of the difficulties in both identifying when these downturns hit... 20th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note When it comes to questions of fiscal sustainability, words matter as much as actions Bond markets have been on the proverbial rollercoaster over the past month, with long-dated yields shooting up over the second half of October only for both long and short-dated yields to collapse... 13th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note Sunak’s summit focus on AI’s risks shouldn’t detract from its economic potential A version of this note was published in The Times on 7th November, 2023 World leaders gathered at Bletchley Park, the home of Britain’s wartime code breakers, last week to hammer out a joint response... 6th November 2023
Chief Economist's Note Fracturing is more in focus as global tensions rise – but it’s still misunderstood An intense flurry of diplomatic activity last week laid bare the fault lines of a fracturing global economy. In the Middle East, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and Rishi Sunak made separate visits to Israel... 23rd October 2023
Chief Economist's Note ZIRP is dead. Here’s what follows the ultra-low rates era. Global bond markets have clawed back some of the wrenching losses of recent weeks, but yields remain far above levels seen over much of the post-global financial crisis period. This shift upwards... 16th October 2023
Chief Economist's Note The bond bears are about to make contact with economic reality A strong September headline payrolls number whipsawed global bond markets on Friday but the net result was that yields ended the week at post-GFC highs. According to the financial commentariat, this... 9th October 2023
Chief Economist's Note It’s all connected – why investors can’t ignore the global economy’s megatrends Last week we published ‘AI, Economies and Markets’, our in-depth report on the economic and market implications of artificial intelligence. The report and accompanying data painted a positive picture... 2nd October 2023
Chief Economist's Note What the markets think about AI This week marks the launch of our annual Spotlight report, which will land in client inboxes tomorrow. This year we are exploring the economic and market impact of artificial intelligence. As with any... 25th September 2023
Chief Economist's Note Oil, China and false inflation narratives Investor nerves in recent weeks have been tested by two opposing inflation concerns. The first is that China is on the cusp of a deflationary spiral that will pull down the rest of the global economy... 18th September 2023
Chief Economist's Note The five questions that will determine AI’s ultimate economic and market impact The financial press is full of hot takes about how AI will revolutionise our lives, for better or worse. They are fuelling an often-breathless debate around this emerging technology that can leave... 11th September 2023
Chief Economist's Note China’s slowdown is a problem for Tesla and Zambia. Less so for global growth. In August 2015, a botched change to the way that Beijing managed the renminbi triggered global panic amid worries that a hard landing in China would take the world economy down with it. Crisis was... 21st August 2023
Chief Economist's Note There’s a reason to worry about Chinese data – but it’s not deflation Having spent the past year worrying over runaway inflation in the major advanced economies, markets are now having to contend with the apparent threat of deflation in China. July’s 0.3% y/y fall in... 14th August 2023
Chief Economist's Note Revisiting the case for ‘immaculate disinflation’ As Europe and North America decamp for the beaches, an intense debate has broken out among economists. It was framed neatly in a Tweet a few weeks ago by Nobel-Laureate Paul Krugman: Put differently... 7th August 2023
Chief Economist's Note How to get a handle on AI’s many implications for economies and markets Towards the end of June, we raised our two-year forecasts for the S&P 500, advising clients that we now expect the benchmark to rise by around 50% between now and the end of 2025. It’s a bullish call... 10th July 2023
Chief Economist's Note ‘Greedflation’ debate muddles inflation’s symptoms with its cause It’s energising would-be trustbusters in the White House. It’s dragging UK supermarket bosses before Parliament. And, according to the IMF, it’s played a role in driving inflation across Europe... 3rd July 2023
