Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with more oil supply coming online, we think that prices will decline further. Fiscal policy in the Gulf will become less supportive as a result, weighing on activity in non-oil sectors. Elsewhere, external strains in Morocco and Egypt are easing as exports have grown – especially in Morocco, driven by tourism and auto output. Not only is this supporting GDP growth but it also provides a better external backdrop for central banks to resume loosening cycles over the coming months.
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