The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share. This would provide a significant boost to GDP growth. Elsewhere, the war in Ukraine has caused commodity prices to rise sharply and, outside of the Gulf, current account deficits will widen as import bills jump. Downward pressure is likely to mount on the currencies of Egypt and Tunisia, with depreciation in the latter pushing the government closer towards default.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services