MENA and the Omicron risks

The Middle East and North African economies are potentially among the most vulnerable to the fallout from the Omicron strain of COVID-19. The North African economies as well as Lebanon and Jordan have low vaccination rates and large tourism sectors, leaving them exposed to the risk of tighter restrictions and curbs on international travel. In the Gulf, vaccination rates are much higher and, Dubai aside, tourism sectors are relatively small. But the fall in energy prices could prompt governments to hold off loosening fiscal policy. And producers may raise oil output more slowly, which would weigh on economic growth.
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
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Middle East Economics Update

Saudi economy on course for strong 2022

Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has hit a bump in the road over the past month or so as the Omicron variant has caused activity in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy to slow. But the experience from other countries suggests this disruption will be brief and, over 2022 as a whole, we think GDP will grow by 6.5%, which is much stronger than consensus expectations.

26 January 2022

Middle East Economic Outlook

Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022

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25 January 2022

Middle East Economics Weekly

Oil prices, UAE drone attack, Gulf monetary tightening

The recent upwards revision to our oil price forecast means that the window for looser fiscal policy in the Gulf will remain open for a little longer than we anticipated. One of the factors driving oil higher this week was the Houthi drone strike in the UAE, which highlighted the risks to the Emirates’ recovery – particularly the tourism sector. Finally, central banks in the Gulf will have to follow the Fed in tightening monetary policy – which now seems likely to start in March. That will add a headwind to non-oil sectors.

20 January 2022

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Latin America Economics Update

Brazil: chunky rate hikes to go on despite recession

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9 December 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.)

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8 December 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey: five key questions (and answers)

This Update answers some of the most common questions that we have received from clients during Turkey’s recent turmoil. In short, the economic fallout doesn’t look like it will be as bad as it was after the 2018 crisis. However, policymakers look less willing to take action to shore up the currency and, as a result, the introduction of some form of capital controls appears to be a bigger risk.

7 December 2021
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