EM exports may be peaking

EM goods exports have surged in Q2. There are some early indications that EM exports will now come off their record highs, but they are still likely to stay at elevated levels throughout the rest of the year.
Shilan Shah Senior India Economist
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The recent jump in India’s consumer price inflation has taken us (and most others) by surprise and we have revised up our near-term forecasts. However, a big chunk of the surge – even in the most closely-watched core measure – can be explained by rising global commodity prices, which we think has largely run its course. Further ahead, a (likely) strong monsoon harvest and a still-large output gap should help to anchor headline inflation and relieve pressure on the RBI to tighten policy any time soon.

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