Lat Am leads the EM tightening cycle

Several EM central banks have raised interest rates in the past couple of months on the back of growing inflation concerns (including many in Latin America) and/or strong economic recoveries (parts of Central Europe, Korea). Hiking cycles look set to continue for a while longer, with Latin America likely to tighten most aggressively. Bucking the trend is much of Asia, where – with the exception of Korea – policy tightening still looks some way off.
Shilan Shah Senior India Economist
Continue reading

More from Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

With the notable exception of Turkey, net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past month. However, the global backdrop for EMs this year will be challenging, particularly for those countries where external vulnerabilities are high (Turkey) or growing (parts of CEE and Latin America). Drop-In: Turkey’s new economic policy = old problems (Thurs 20th Jan, 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT). William Jackson and Jason Tuvey discuss the economic problems associated with the lira’s collapse, including the government’s policy response. Register here.

19 January 2022

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Current account risks building in Em. Europe & Lat Am

The shift to current account surpluses in Indonesia and South Africa suggest that these economies may be better placed to weather any fallout from rising US interest rates than in the past. But current account deficits have become an increasing cause for concern in parts of Emerging Europe (Hungary, Poland and Romania) and Latin America (Colombia and Chile). Drop-In: Join Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson and Jason Tuvey, head of our Turkey coverage, shortly after this Thursday’s CBRT meeting for a discussion about Jason’s new report on economic policy-making in Turkey, the impact of the lira’s collapse and brewing macro risks this Thursday 20th January at 09:00 ET/14:00 GMT. Register here.

18 January 2022

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Book

Omicron sweeps across the emerging world

The Omicron variant of COVID-19 is causing new virus cases to surge in the emerging world. Many EMs are reporting record daily cases or that new infections are rising sharply. South Africa’s experience offers some hope – cases are now falling sharply there and it looks like the economic fallout was limited. Elsewhere, most EM governments are following South Africa’s playbook by imposing limited (if any) containment measures, although China is a key exception. And given weakness in testing capacity and large informal sectors in most EMs, workplace absenteeism is unlikely to be as economically disruptive as in DMs.

14 January 2022

More from Shilan Shah

India Economics Update

Three points on banking sector liquidity

Measures by the Reserve Bank to drain banking sector liquidity have caught attention over the past few days. But with liquidity still abundant, interbank rates at the very bottom of the rate corridor and financial conditions exceptionally loose, these measures represent marginal tweaks rather than a tightening of policy.

14 September 2021

India Economics Weekly

Vaccine rollout accelerates, MSP hikes muted

India’s vaccine rollout has shifted into a higher gear over the past couple of weeks, but the slow start means that it would still take several months before a large majority of the population is fully vaccinated. Meanwhile, the annual Minimum Support Price increases for winter crops announced by the government this week are small and will only have a limited impact on both rural wage and food inflation.

10 September 2021

India Economics Weekly

Taking stock of our GDP forecasts

Much of the coverage of this week's Q2 GDP release highlighted the record y/y growth rate, but that was due to the slump last year rather than recent economic strength. We estimate that GDP dropped by 12% q/q in seasonally-adjusted terms. That large fall in GDP means there is more scope for the economy to have rebounded sharply in Q3. But taken as a whole, we've revised down our annual growth forecast for 2021 to 8%.

3 September 2021
↑ Back to top