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Steeper interest rate hikes and larger house price falls

Hawkish shifts by the RBA and the RBNZ in recent weeks have prompted us to forecast an even more aggressive hiking cycle by both central banks in the months ahead. Both central banks hiked rates by 50bp at their latest meeting and we have now pencilled in further 50bp rate hikes in the months ahead. At the same time, house prices have started falling in both countries. House prices are down more than 5% from their November peak in New Zealand. And while prices only just fell in Australia in May, all signs point to the downturn persisting. While we had already expected prices in both countries to decline, the steeper rate hikes we now anticipate will feed through to higher mortgage rates and higher debt repayments. That will weigh heavily on the housing market before long. We have therefore raised our forecast of the peak to trough decline in house prices to 15% in Australia and 20% in New Zealand. And those downturns should cause similar-sized falls in dwellings investment in each country in the years ahead.

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